Wolves post-Nuno (long read w/ updates)

I've been wanting to write about Wolves for a while, but with the managerial change it's even more pertinent.

First, I should probably give my bias as a bit of background. I don't like situations like what's brought Wolves to where they are. Having owners that a tight with an agent who together run the club, it's a mockery of what the sport is. To bring in all these Portuguese players, many of whom should've stayed in Portugal, is not benefitting anyone other than the agent. Honestly, how does an Englishman from Wolverhampton deal with the cognitive dissonance associated with this scheme. Chinese owner, Portuguese super agent, Portuguese coaching staff, half the team is foreign. It's everything wrong with modern football. Imagine having Ruben Neves in the Championship. Complete joke.

That said, now I'll explain my thoughts on Nuno. Defensive football, let the talented guys up front do the scoring, if that doesn't work spam crosses. A major drawback about modern football, teams spending all this money just to play not to lose rather than to win. The issue with this type of football is it's fine when it works, because football is about winning. Dull football gets old quickly when it doesn't yield results. Looking at stats, they finished where the should have. 13th place on both actual points and expected points, 2 goals scored fewer than expected (36 and 38, respectively), dead on in terms of goals against (52). Just that itself, those for and against numbers, pretty much tell the story. One goal per game is abhorrent. I stopped watching them in general, but especially first halves, as that's torture to put yourself through that dross. Of course, the second half of the season in particular was conditioned by Raul Jimenez being unavailable. That doesn't excuse the entire situation, however.

When people on Twitter post photos of an attacking move, and there's one or zero attackers in the box, that's a tactical problem. Fabio Silva is not quite ready yet, but he'd score more if he had service, which is down to the coach. Adama seems to have no end product, but how much of that is down to there being one or two guys in the box to cross to once he beats three men off the dribble? Willian Jose was benched by Isak at La Real, so to expect him to come in and do what Raul did would have been delusional. The injury crisis can be attributed to the coach as well, given he wanted a small squad. Sometimes that works, and the physios play a role in that obviously, but other times things like Raul's injury happen, and that's football. I don't buy (almost) every fanbase excusing poor football by saying the squad isn't good enough. Arsenal and Spurs fans trot that excuse out regularly. My point here, much like Fulham with Scott Parker, is it's down to the tactics. If you aren't scoring, you change something so you can do so. 52 goals is also a lot to concede for a team that's supposed to be defense first. I'd even say this is worse than Fulham in terms of attacking output because Fulham underperformed xG. Of course, when your goalscorer is on the bench by choice, and you're guys who can't finish at striker, that tends to happen. But it's not like Nuno had any actual excuse there, as anything under like 5 in terms of xG over a whole season isn't that bad. They actually got 45 points when it was expected they'd get 44 by the model on understat.

The elephant in the room is the new manager will be compared to Nuno. My opinion is Wolves were not a normal Championship club, and anything less than promotion would've been a failure. Finishing 7th twice you could argue is punching above their weight, while this year's regression was poor. So that's two out of four seasons of success, one about right, and one failed. I wonder what it comes down to for the owner. I mean, I totally agree about the football, but if you let Mendes bring in another compadre who's never coached in a "top league", that's a huge risk. I also wouldn't bring in Howe or Lampard, as I don't rate them, for what it's worth. Fonseca would be a decent fit, I think, given the owners want better football, and he's Portuguese with experience in various leagues. I'd also say Gerrard or Potter, but who knows if they'd be brought in.

I spoke on the squad a bit, and now I'll go further into it. Certain clubs have this issue where there are too many players not in their primes. As in, years from reaching that level of consistency or past it and on their last legs. Saiss (31) needs replacing in my opinion, Patricio (33) is getting on, Moutinho (34) is past it, and even Jimenez is 30. This idea that Raul will just come back as if nothing happened is a bit naïve. On the other end, the aforementioned Silva is only 18, Ait Nouri (loan) and Hoever are 19, all of MGW Neto and Vitinha (loan) are 21. That's a huge part of the squad that's not at peak levels. Jonny has had two different long-term injuries as well, so you never know what'll happen with him. Podence hasn't played much since arriving, either, looking at the stats, due to injury. Kilman, despite people speaking about him like he's a kid, is 24 already. Neves and Traore for me are the building blocks, and both of them have been a victim of the negative football Wolves play(ed). I also have no idea what type of budget the new man will have at his disposal. In addition to the two I mentioned, I'd add Neto for sure, Semedo, Ait Nouri (if he's bought) until Jonny is back (with Marcal if ever fit as backup), Boly and Podence as solid players.

Depth is key, as I've been getting at. On one hand, you only have the league and domestic cups to deal with. On the other, I already mentioned the injuries, some of which are long term. Unless the new guy wants to continue with the same system, which would defeat the purpose of changing manager, I'd expect certain players to go. Adama and Neves are the prizes at this point, given Neto won't be sold due to injury and the fact that they just sold Jota last summer. Adama would actually be really good at Everton. That right side is barren, and they could have Godfrey or Holgate play RB with Adama providing the width ahead of him. Don't think that'll happen though. Back to Wolves, it's criminal how underutilized Adama and Neves are. It wouldn't even be worth trying to sell to gain funds to bring guys in because they've been poor this season. I remember that Championship season Neves would shoot all the time from range. Now it seems like he just makes safe passes from deep and pops with a non-threatening effort from ranger here and there. 2 goals 1 assist from Neves isn't enough, nor is 3 and 3 from Adama. Again, this is a defensive team that scored 1 goal per game. 5th worst in the league, in fact, and 3 of the 4 below them in goals scored were relegated. Maybe management noticed Bielsa and newly promoted Leeds with 26 more goals scored and 14 more points and realized it was a problem. In particular, CM and CB have been mentioned for a while as positions of need.

Djibril Sow - important metrics include interceptions (2.05/90) and tackles (3.05/90), both around the 90th percentile for CM's, and he's in the 90th percentile for pressures per 90 as well (22.85). I knew of him before, having watched Frankfurt, as well as playing FM, but I searched Kante and he came up on similar players. He's pretty decent on the ball as well. There's a bit of an exodus from his club, so he could be had if the offer's right. This would allow Neves to go forward.

Jules Kounde - this is not a realistic one (nor is Maguire, another top ball-playing CB), but he'd complement Boly perfectly. Basically, he's as good on the ball as Coady, but is athletic and can defend. This type of player should allow the new coach to play a back four, something Nuno tried to phase in but the personnel/tactics weren't adept enough. Another French guy who'd be more attainable, but still not likely, is Badiashile from Monaco. Similar to the other two I mentioned, and only 20, which is ridiculous. There's another guy playing in Ligue 1 called Nayef Aguerd, Moroccan left-footed CB, 25 y/o. Just joined last summer, to be fair, but is valued at a measly 7.2m on TM, compared to Kounde at 54m and Badiashile at 25m.

Different CM option - I'd be looking for both a ball winner and a goalscorer from CM, but I'm aware that's not super likely. Lorenzo Pellegrini would be my pick. He's tall, a good age (24), and his contract is up soon. I doubt he'll leave Roma, and certainly not for Wolves, but this type of player would be ideal here. One could argue Gibbs-White is meant to be that player. That would require a 4-5-1 or for him to play either out wide or as a second striker in a 4-4-2.

Maxence Caqueret - if Neves is sold, this is a guy I'd look at to replace him. Less of a goal threat, but better off the ball, despite his stature. Same general type of player as Neves, more of the deep-lying playmaker.

UPDATED MID JUNE - Maybe just include this bit...

Not gonna address too much about Nuno. It was time to go, realistically, and the club is still under the spell of Mendes. Lage has come in, and he prefers a 4-4-2/4-4-1-1, so I'll be addressing the squad and how it can morph into that system. The main point of the coaching change was to bring in fresh ideas, aka not play that garbage football Nuno reverted to in the final season. Even before Raul went down, it was ugly, so let's not make excuses about it.

As I'm typing this, Nelson Semedo is getting absolutely cooked by Robin Gosens in the Euros. I feel that's a good place to start with this situation at Wolves, which is transfers in and out. 15 million pounds each for Costa and Doherty isn't bad, especially the latter now that Nuno is gone. However, Jota for 40m, which has some weird element of installments that are backloaded, from what I've heard, is less so. I really like Neto, and he can do a job to replace a good deal of what Jota did, to be fair, but he's injured now. I also believe as soon as he comes back and balls out, Mendes will have him sold, because that's what he's about. This part is gonna be all over the place, by the way. Just going from thought to thought. Mendes, for me, is about his own business, not seeing his clubs win things. Look at the recent issues with Gattuso. Look at Valencia. Look at the state of the Portuguese league. Personally, I'd hate to be associated with any club he's doing business with. Same with Raiola, though I don't think he controls clubs like Mendes does. The question here is how do Wolves return to the Europa League, and eventually push for Champions League and potentially a title. That was the goal, initially, when the owners bought the club.

I'll stop messing around and get to the squad. They'll need a keeper, considering Patricio is aging and appears to be off to join Mourinho at Roma. I think that's a mistake for Roma, by the way, but this is about Wolves. I've see Jose Sa linked, and this is the exact Mendes garbage I'm talking about. He's not a good keeper, to put it bluntly, and there are plenty of decent ones out there.

Figure it makes sense to cover each part of the pitch, so now for the defense. I don't see them buying new fullbacks, to be honest, unless Ait Nouri isn't redeemed. Jonny is injured again, which isn't great, and you can't rely on Marcal. On the right, Hoever and Semedo aren't great, but they both just came in for a combined 35 million so they'll have to play. CB is for sure an area to address. There are rumors of Coady leaving since Lage doesn't play a back three, which would make sense. Not that it'll happen for sure, but he is an England international after all. Boly is fine, I guess, but needs a partner. If Coady leaves, that'll mean a player who can progress the ball.

Midfield is interesting. The owners aren't keen on providing more cash, which I get given the circumstances and no Europe. Thus, it's likely one (or both?) of Adama and Neves will be sold. It's not a great situation. I'd say Neves is more replaceable, given how rare Adama is, but at the same time you'd like to keep him. At the same time, if someone comes in with a crazy bid for Adama, that would be most of the cash needed to bring some guys in. Dendoncker is there still, and he can play a role I guess. Moutinho is getting old, and he already wasn't athletic, so that's maybe an issue. Otasowie has potential, but there are attitude questions. Vitinha I guess will be bought; not sure how that one works with the whole loan plus Silva joining for so much last summer. The other wingers are Neto and Podence. They'll both be there, though each has had injuries this past season. Gibbs-White rounds out this part of the pitch, as he's a #10 in my eyes. Could work in that role behind a striker, for sure, or be an option off the bench.

Striker is where the club is covered, surprisingly, given the abysmal goal tally. Raul seems to be set to return as the main man, with Silva backing up. Two other options, both coming back from loans in Spain, are Cutrone and Rafa Mir. When I discuss the money spent, Cutrone is certainly up there as a main suspect. He was never that good at Milan; an incredibly limited player who fans hyped up because of "grinta" and the fact that he was from the academy. He runs around a lot, has average at best technique, and doesn't score that often. Add to that joining a club in a cold, wet country and a team that's full of Portuguese dudes, and it's quite clear why he hasn't worked out.

Looking at the system, I want to highlight a few players. I mentioned Semedo earlier, and there's a great thread on Twitter about how isolated he was in that game. Just like when he was getting roasted by Davies in the CL semis. My point here is you don't want to be overly defensive, but a 4-4-2/4-4-1-1 DOES give support to the fullbacks. That's largely the point of it. My pick there would be Adama, obviously, given the players in the squad. We all know his characteristics, and the way Nuno had them playing, he knows how to track back. With Portugal, a big part of it is the midfield and forwards. Bernardo plays as a winger, tasked with creating alongside Bruno and Jota, while Cristiano is the magnetic presence in the box. This means there are four defenders, tasked with both going forward and defending, plus two CM's. This is where that team goes to pot. Danilo OR William would be fine, but not both. I don't buy the "THEY'RE BOTH SO SLOW" comments, because that's a lazy narrative, but having two guys who literally do the same thing and have the same limitations is horrible coaching. It'd be one thing if you did that against Croatia or Spain, who literally have world class CM's and nothing else, but any other side doesn't warrant that respect, even France. This leads to the ball being lost easily in midfield, since both of those guys are poor on the ball. They also sit quite deep, allowing tons of space for "space investigator" types, of which Germany have two. So in essence, you have two players who don't really cover, since they're not box-to-box, and they certainly do nothing to control the game, as they're destroyers. At Wolves, that player would be Dendoncker, which is fine. He's a big guy who plays a box-to-box role. However, and this is ironic given both are in the squad, Portugal 100% miss a controller and a ball carrier. Bernardo and Bruno can technically do that, but if they're having to drop deep, they disconnect from the attack. This is where Moutinho, Neves, or Palhinha should take one of the starting spots. Wolves obviously own two of those and are linked to the other, assuming at least one of the first two leave. Sanches is the ball carrier for Portugal, and Vitinha can do that for Wolves.

That last paragraph got a little wordy. The point is, if you know you need to protect your fullbacks, that has to weigh in with your transfers. If you want your fullbacks to support the wingers, whether inverted or traditional, that means a ball winner in midfield. My pick is Djibril Sow, currently at Frankfurt. The system itself can shift depending on opposition, but to have Vitinha (plus MGW and Neto/Podence) at #10 behind Raul, the only thing missing is that guy to win the ball back. This is how you shift from a back three. The main reason the back four Nuno attempted to play had no defensive solidity is the CM's aren't capable of defending. Neves is statistically superior to Moutinho in every defensive metric, but Moutinho is better at pretty much everything attacking. There has to be a balance. I'd get rid of both, to be honest, assuming the fee for Neves is good enough. Adama for me is a must keep. Podence hasn't played enough to prove himself, and Neto is injured for a while. Ait Nouri is a question mark. He's worse defensively than Semedo, but better going forward. Going back to the midfield real quick, it's all well and good to say Neto will come back and play even better than before, and Vitinha will be like Felix from the Lage days at Benfica, or Gibbs-White will develop the way fans hope. Or that Podence will take the #10 role (or winger) and prove how good he is. All of these are hypotheticals. Taking Sow as an example, it's easier to bring a player in like him to do the dirty work to improve the defense than it is to snap your fingers and hope the offense will magically improve. The reason I mention that is you'd love to just bring in a guy like Kevin De Bruyne or even Luis Alberto, but that's not happening at Wolves.

Speaking of the balance, it's quite clear that the central defenders need to be changed. I'd offload Saiss for sure, and maybe Coady if the right bid comes in. I do think though that Boly + Coady + Kilman + one legit all rounder type would be sufficient, given the lack of European footy. I looked up both Kounde and Maguire on fbref, and a similar player is Nayef Aguerd from Rennes. French football is a gold mine, and he's both good on the ball and in the air, which Wolves need. 6'2" as well, which would go well to complement either Boly or Coady. Two other picks, less likely I'd say, are Le Normand from la Real and Vestergaard from Saints. I'm pretty sure I remember reading that the latter has a contract that's up pretty soon, as in 2022 I think. He's REALLY TALL, as anyone who's watched him knows, and he's pretty good on the ball as well. Le Normand is unlikely because his side are in Europa League, plus he spent time at Zubieta (the academy). All three are good ages as well; 25, 28, and 24 respectively. I'd personally be looking at two CB's, but that's just me. One would be good on the ball and more of a covering presence, while the other would be dominant and good in the air. Again, though, the club doesn't have money, allegedly, so that's unlikely.

Last position of obvious need, assuming the Roma transfer is finalized, is keeper. I'd bring Ruddy back as backup, but you need an improvement. An attainable player is Sergio Herrera of Osasuna. Statistically, he's up there in the vicinity of Oblak in terms of preventing goals. That's a good thing. It'd be a mistake to keep Patricio at this point, and it would be a mistake to bring in a Mendes bro who's not that good, which is what seems likely at this point. A somewhat more likely choice, if you can say that, is Sam Johnstone. WBA were relegated, but he played well, so yeah. Both of these guys are 28, a very nice age for a keeper.

Johnstone/S Herrera

Semedo Boly Aguerd Ait-Nouri

Adama Dendoncker Palhinha Neto

Vitinha

Raul

or

Sow for Palhinha, Jonny/Marcal for Ait-Nouri, Gibbs-White/Podence for Vitinha

Posting this now because it's sat in drafts all month. Many of the things I've advocated for won't happen because the club is a Mendes circus. Why should I waste my time with sensible ideas when the club hierarchy doesn't even care?