St. Louis Cardinals Rebuild/Retool

Rebuilding is a dirty word in baseball. The teams that are taken seriously don't rebuild; that's for teams with cheap owners who won't spend money to win. I'm an Orioles fan, and there's a stigma with the ballclub currently because of how many years they were bad before getting to the point of contention. And even then, Baltimore is yet to win a playoff series this decade. New ownership brings promise, but if the money isn't spent, it's same old same old and the World Series drought will grow to 50+ years. All that is to say, the St. Louis Cardinals are not stooping to those depths, completely gutting the big league club and actively pushing fans away from the on-field product. No, it would appear that the reason for slashing a bit of payroll is legitimate. The core of the team is old, expensive, and failed to make the playoffs. Some contracts end in 2025, and if the money is eventually reinvested into the team, it will be better for it. There will be some painful goodbyes, but some of the fan favorites appear to be sticking around, and fans will relish that. Here's how I see things progressing for the Cardinals, starting this offseason.

I’ll start with the prospects in the system, categorized by proximity to The Show.

Close to majors (2024 stats)

T. Saggese (INF) .204 BA .556 OPS 49 AB’s MLB, .253 BA .751 OPS 479 AB’s AAA

J. Crooks (C) .321 BA .908 OPS 315 AB’s AAA

M. McGreevy (RHP) 23 IP MLB 1.96 ERA 0.78 WHIP, 150 innings AAA meh numbers 

G. Graceffo (RHP) 7 IP MLB, 4.85 ERA 1.55 WHIP 130 IP AAA  

S. Robberse (RHP) 4.59 ERA 1.22 WHIP 84 IP AAA

A. Kloffenstein (RHP) 4.74 ERA 1.33 WHIP 89 IP AAA

C. Prieto (INF) .279 BA .763 OPS 501 AB’s in AAA

Q. Mathews (LHP) 143 IP at 4 levels, 2.76 ERA 0.98 WHIP 

T. Hence (RHP) 2.71 ERA 1.07 WHIP 79 IP AA

Four of these guys look “ready”, according to their 2024 numbers, considering the Cardinals will be rebuilding in 2025. Those are McGreevy, who could earn a spot in the rotation to open the season, as well as Prieto and Saggese in the infield. Jimmy Crooks behind the plate is probably ready, but there are Herrera and Pages in front of him (Contreras moving to 1st). Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews should be allowed to develop in AA and AAA, as there’s no rush, while  Kloffenstein and Robberse will likely be in Memphis and maybe get some innings on MLB mounds. Ian Bedell and Max Rajcic are two other pitchers who are in the top 30 and spent time in the higher levels of affiliate ball, but there are prospects ahead of them. 

Further off prospects

J Wetherholt (SS/2B) should start 2025 in A+, maybe even AA, progress as org sees fit, no rush - .295 BA .805 OPS 105 AB in Palm Beach, 2024 draftee

T Roby (RHP) - Only threw 38 innings in 2024, mostly in AA

C Davis (OF) - 400 AB’s, mostly A/A+, .250 BA .766 OPS

C Hjerpe (LHP) - better numbers in AA than A+, though only about 50 innings total in 2024

L Bernal (C) - .270 BA .762 OPS 341 AB’s in A+, 14 games in AA

I would expect most of the players above to spend time in A+ and maybe AA for the 2025 season, as that would follow their development process. Another catcher in this tier is Sammy Hernandez, who spent most of 2024 in A ball. Chen-Wei Lin is yet a right handed pitcher (currently in A+) with some upside.

Offseason plan

As listed in various sections above, there are players on big contracts and who aren’t contributing that could be moved. Ideally, at least one of Matz ($11M) and Mikolas ($18M) would be moved, though there would be little to no interest considering their 5+ ERA’s and bloated contracts. Mikolas did rack up 179 innings in 2024, even if they were painstaking. Maybe a team like the Marlins or White Sox would take him on for a season and you can get rid of him and his contract. The goal has to be at least one of Graceffo and McGreevy joining the rotation, as there will be limited expectations to win. Erick Fedde may have some suitors, whether in the offseason or once again at the trade deadline, as his contract is more palatable and he’s producing more than Matz and Mikolas. Drew Rom (L) and Roddery Munoz (R) are two other pitchers on the younger side to find a spot for.

The majority of contending MLB teams could use a closer or strong reliever, so interest in Helsley will certainly be there. I’m thinking Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Orioles, Blue Jays, D-Backs, Padres, Red Sox, and more. Tanner Scott had a matter of months left on his deal and brought back a decent haul from the Padres, so a full year of Helsley should garner as much, if not more. Speaking of pitching, an idea I have to get rid of Mikolas is to eat part of his salary to send him to a bad/rebuilding team (A’s, COL, CWS, MIA) plus include a prospect or two. Maybe a pitcher like Ian Bedell or Pete Hansen, who are longshots to make it to MLB, or a catcher like Ryan Campos since there is an abundance of those in the Cardinals’ system. Or you just keep Mikolas and limit his innings so young guys who will be around get a chance.

REPORTS SAY SONNY GRAY IS STAYING. HOWEVER...

The Braves and Reds are two teams Gray may accept a trade to, given their location in relation to his home (Nashville). IF Arenado were to move, and yes this is a longer term idea, a pitcher plus one of Cam Collier, Noelvi Marte, Sal Stewart, and another prospect could be a decent return. My thinking is ⅓ of the Cardinals' top 30 prospects are RHP, plus the three I just mentioned all play some combination of 2B/SS/3B. Donovan, Gorman, Saggese, Wetherholt, Wynn plus one for those positions makes sense to me, as the new guy + Wetherholt would be in the minors for at least another season or two. 

Speaking of Arenado, he’ll end up on a team that needs a 3B and has money to spend. It could be the Dodgers, his hometown team. The Yankees will have a spot open with Jazz Chisholm returning to 2B with Gleyber Torres leaving. It could be the Mets if Alonso leaves and Triantos moves to first. Alec Bohm has had his issues in Philadelphia and they want to win a championship. Seattle needs offense in the worst way. All of those teams have the prospects.

Maybe not Dalton Rushing or one of the best Mets guys (Sproat, Williams, Gilbert), but 13 of their top 30 guys in AA or above. Acuna or Mauricio could be available with the Mets in win now mode. Spencer Jones could be an attractive outfield bat from the Yankees to get in return for Nolan. I don't see the Phillies trading Painter, Miller, or Crawford, but the others in their system are fair game to go with Bohm in a trade. Outside of Davis, there’s not much OF wise in the Cards’ system. Seattle would part with Lazaro Montes, seeing as they wouldn’t want to include Cole Young or Colt Emerson. Laz is only in A+, so he’d take longer than Jones. This might mean still adding a relatively cheap outfielder to fill out the current roster. It could be Michael Taylor, despite his offensive woes, or a former Cardinal like Jason Heyward or Randal Grichuk. Seattle has an elite rotation but a putrid offense, not helped by their home stadium. Throw in one of their surplus arms (punny) like Teddy McGraw (R) or Brandyn Garcia (L) and that’s a sensible move, if they’ll take on Arenado's contract. The Bohm centered trade idea makes a lot of sense for both parties.

F/A Targets

J. Means LHP - low risk high reward if he actually stays healthy

W. Buehler RHP - playoff performance may eliminate this option

M. Boyd LHP - likely to stay in AL Central

M. Scherzer RHP - bring the legend home for the last hurrah of his career

The idea here is there’s no point spending lots of money or adding long term deals unless there’s value, since cost-cutting is the goal. There are tons of names out there who could take up roster space for cheap, and maybe even improve it. If Matz and Mikolas are still around, they shouldn’t be prioritized but those two are paid $30M combined to pitch and aren’t cutting it.

2025 Season

Rotation (using current players)

S. Gray, A. Pallante, S. Matz, M. Mikolas, M. McGreevy (G. Graceffo + D. Rom long relief or spot starters unless Matz/Mikolas can be moved, also Hence/ Kloffenstein/ Mathews/ Robberse as options when ready)

Lineup

Winn SS, Donovan 3B, Contreras 1B, Burleson DH, Herrera C, Nootbaar LF, Walker RF, Gorman/Saggese 2B, Scott CF

My initial lineup had Willson traded and Nolan staying, but with that seemingly reversed IRL, this is actually a decent lineup. I don’t see much outfield depth, so that could be addressed with one or two guys, but other than that, it looks solid. No expectation to win the division, but could surprise some folks.

Outlook

It’s unclear as the offseason just began which of the high earners will depart, though I expect at least two. The return would almost certainly be cost-controlled young players, as is the norm in this process. The downside here is the packages could be lesser given the contract situations of each player. The position players to build around longer term are Donovan, Burleson, Winn, Wetherholt, Saggese, Herrera plus one of Bernal/Crooks, Gorman, Scott, and Walker. Not all of those will pan out, but it’s certainly a start. Pitching wise it’s Liberatore, Pallante, Graceffo, McGreevy, Mathews, Hence, Hjerpe, Roby, and more. Add to that the players brought back from trades and there’s a solid foundation to take back control of the NL Central in 2-3 years. St. Louis is a proud franchise with a history of winning,  so it’ll be humbling at times, but worth it in the long term. Also, fans can take solace that it's not anywhere near as bad of a situation as most of the teams that have done a "rebuild" recently, not naming names. The NL Central is no the AL East, NL East, or NL West. Cincinnati missed the playoffs in 2024 too, the Pirates are owned by Nutting, the Cubs apparently will not spend big this offseason, and the Brewers are looking to trade Devin Williams after letting Willy Adames leave in free agency. Despite cutting costs, I expect a respectable 2025 campaign from the St. Louis Cardinals.