Flying where?

The body of this article was written prior to this introduction, but I want to go on a little rant prior to what comes next. My time as an Orioles fan has been intermittent. By that I mean this was the team I was "destined" to root for, given where my parents are from, but I have never lived in the city nor the state. It's worth mentioning because it is a fact that I'm able to access games being in the region, but to actually go to the stadium requires a reliable mode of transportation, gas, and whatever other costs that are associated with going to a ball game. My main issue with the Orioles franchise right now is that I don't believe the higher ups actually care about winning. This is a team that has been affected by the ideas of "Moneyball" in that the priority is cheap young talent. Mind you, there is absolutely zero issue with drafting/signing and then developing young players. I love that. Where I disagree is having developed a good amount of talent, all of whom have years of team control, and then starting to raise prices and take away member benefits while still not going out and spending money. Oh, and the team still hasn't won a playoff game. Not a series, a single game. I began watching the Orioles again at the end of 2021, with 2022, 23 and 24 being seasons I pretty much witnessed all of. Despite having a better record and team than 2022, 2024 was by far the least fun seasons to follow. Well before the playoffs, I'd say in June or July, I became more fascinated with prospects throughout MiLB than the Orioles, even though I kept watching games and even went to one in September. It's so cool watching players learn and develop as they rise through the ranks. Compare that to a team that did have fair reasons for regression (injuries), but stagnation was not part of the plan. There are options, one better than the others, and that's why this article exists.

Let the Kids Play (Option 1)

My expectation here is that this will involve giving the young guys the reins to the team, as well as minimal investment in the way of free agency and trades outside of "older" guys. The positive here is you still have a few years of Adley and Gunnar in particular before they become expensive, plus you get a better view of what the young guys can truly do without the conflict between them and the vets. The negative, as with any experiment of this sort, is that the ceiling is high but the floor is low. "Growing pains" is a phrase for a reason. Likewise, it would be a slap in the face to the fanbase which has already endured an extended period of poor results and rebuilding. Players I could see moved include O'Hearn after his option is activated (or at the deadline once Basallo has made it through AAA), Mountcastle, Mullins (once Bradfield is ready), Urias, and maybe even Bautista if another team's willing to give up talent at the deadline. Reclamation project types such as Boyd and Buehler could be brought in on the cheap to hopefully find their way, while fringe guys like Povich, Rogers, and Suarez become prominent rotation members and McDermott and Young are incorporated. A lineup with this idea, which again I do not endorse, could be:

Holliday 2B, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, Rutschman C, Kjerstad DH, Mayo 1B, Cowser LF, Fabian/Slater RF, Mullins -> Bradfield CF. More or less what we saw in Norfolk in the past few years. It is risky, for sure, and I could see that team winning 75 games, maybe hit .500 if everyone performs and pitching holds up.

Speaking of pitching, the present rotation is Rodriguez, Eflin, Kremer, Povich, Suarez, and Rogers. Bradish will hopefully be back at some point next season, but TJ surgery is tough. Just look at John Means. If Mountcastle is moved to say Pittsburgh, the Pirates have three young starters in Ashcraft, Chandler, and Harrington who could be appealing to the O's. Buehler makes sense as a high upside low financial risk option, as does one of Boyd/Corbin/Miley/Quintana from the left side. A younger guy coming off injury who was once elite, along with an older guy to eat up some innings. As this year showed, injuries happen and you can never have enough starting pitching. Bullpen will be boosted by the welcome return of Bautista. The rest of would be Coulombe, Cano, Perez, Dominguez, Soto, Akin, McDermott, Young.

One other positive to this idea is that minor leaguers would be given more of a chance and likely feel more comfortable as they'd get experience at the big league level with guys they came up with. Think of the three hitters currently in AAA (Basallo, Beavers, Fabian), as well as pitching talents in McDermott and Young. Bradfield (AA Bowie) could be ready within a year as well. After that are De Leon, Honeycutt, Nunez, O'Ferrall and others in the lower levels of the system. Not saying to rush them, but if they perform well there'd be less of a roadblock for them to make their way through the levels. Plus, by selling off vets, the return would likely be prospects or fringe MLB guys who' be hungry to prove themselves.

Win Now (Option 2)

This is my personal favorite. Mainly because I have not seen the Orioles in the World Series in my lifetime and there's no guarantee that the "prospects" will ever become all star level players, or even replacement level big leaguers. Step one here is re-signing Burnes and Santander (or someone at their respective levels), as well as adding a lefty starter and a righty bat. To me, that is the minimum here. During the season with all the injuries it was clear at least one starter was needed, and that never happened (Rogers, lol). Likewise, in the short postseason stint, the clear issue was offense. Going slightly back on what I said earlier, I'd actually be alright not keeping Santander as long as there are two right-handed bats close to all-star level production. In the lineups I thought out, I actually don't have an issue with the vs RHP iteration, with the only real questions whether Mountcastle will be kept amid trade rumors and if O'Hearn will stay (club option that to me is a no-brainer). A player I would strongly consider moving is Mayo, as I believe certain teams (Marlins, White Sox) would prefer him to Mountcastle in the long term, there are options at 1B (Mounty, O'Hearn, eventually Basallo and/or Adley), plus he's proven nothing at MLB level. I'm not sure which outfielder would realistically come, and whether it would be via free agency or a trade.

Imagine this lineup against lefties: Westburg 2B, Henderson SS, Santander RF, Mountcastle 1B, T. Hernandez LF, Rutschman DH, Urias 3B, McCann C, Mateo CF

and this one against righties: Cowser LF, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, Santander RF, O'Hearn 1B, Kjerstad DH, Rutschman C, Mullins CF, Holliday 2B

That is borderline disgusting, and only really takes a couple moves. The question is still how clutch the team would be, and I'd argue there's a need for at least one veteran bat. Hernandez could be that, but even then I think another could be of use. JD Martinez may retire, Pete Alonso probably will have better offers or more ideal destinations, Paul Goldschmidt might be a little too costly for what he's providing these days, Bregman would be great but the O's don't need another 3B, Christian Walker could be an option to return to Baltimore if at least 1B leaves, and there's the trade market for someone like Luis Robert from the White Sox or Ozuna/Soler from the Braves. My DH pick would be Brent Rooker, though he'd cost a decent haul from the A's and we know how Mike Elias is.

Staying on the topic of trades and free agents, the possibilities for the rotation are endless. Bringing back Corbin Burnes by finally opening up the metaphorical wallet is step one. With that accomplished, I'd then add a lefty to the rotation and if we're being extra proactive, another lefty to the bullpen. How about one of Max Fried and Blake Snell, plus a reunion with Tanner Scott, or maybe AJ Minter moves north from Atlanta.

Trade targets from my perspective include Garrett Crochet, Jesus Luzardo, Framber Valdez, and either Castillo or Gilbert from Seattle (Kirby would be the dream). Mayo could be the center piece of a trade to Chicago or Miami, as neither of those clubs will be competitive and would prefer someone with years of cost control and higher potential. Mountcastle could unfortunately be the sacrifice to get a deal done with Houston or Seattle.

That would leave a rotation of Burnes/Crochet/Gilbert, Fried/Luzardo/Snell/Valdez, Rodriguez, Eflin, Kremer/Povich. Bullpen would feature Bautista, Cano, Dominguez from the right; Coulombe, Scott, Soto from the left; and long relief options that include Rogers, Povich, Suarez, and possibly McDermott and Young from AAA. Compare that to the rotation mentioned in the youth movement section. Night and day. Along with slightly better production hitting wise, this is a 100+ win team, and that's not accounting for Bradish if he can give anything next season.

Status Quo (Option 3)

Being realistic, I expect some ambition but still to follow the pattern that Mike Elias tends to follow. The way I see it, the deficiencies from this past season were approach at the plate, as well as health of the starting rotation + Bautista. Having Kimbrel for most of the season instead of the closer cost some games and eventually led to losing the division to the Yankees. The bigger issue to me, as was shown for probably 3 months of the season + the playoffs, was too many guys trying to hit homers and not just get a single or double. No reason every single guy should be acting like he's Judge, Ohtani or Soto. Santander got away with it, but again, his average was only .240. That's a key issue in terms of postseason success. Look at the four teams in the CS round. All of them, especially Cleveland given the financial disparity, were able to sustain rallies as they had the ability to get on base. The Orioles in the second half simply did not do that. Even with relatively good health next season, knock on wood, there are other teams that have more talent or take better approaches at the plate. If that's a coaching issue, then alright. But if it's a philosophy from the higher ups, it won't matter who's coaching unless there is an increase in quality depth throughout the major league roster. In terms of a potential preview lineup and rotation wise, let's make a few predictions with the "status quo" in mind.

Burnes won't be back. It will come down to numbers and where he wants to be, but I don't think this situation has been handled well. When there are obvious holes in the hitting approach (months of declined production), some bad luck with injuries (Mateo, Westburg, the pitching), and then the GM is stingy at the deadline (Eflin was good, but then Rogers + Phillies rejects...), that isn't a recipe for taking advantage of your sole year with one of the league's ace pitchers. There's now the issue of certain regulars and role players approaching free agency (Mateo, Mountcastle, Mullins, Urias), others who are in their cost controlled primes so to speak (Gunnar, Adley, Westburg), and more yet who need reps to fully acclimatize to the majors (Kjerstad, Holliday, Mayo). I can see Slater being brought back, or someone else relatively average (Canha, Grichuk, Merrifield, Pham, Renfroe) to fill the RH outfield role. My pick would be Teoscar Hernandez, but he'll have a competitive market and the left field depth issue won't encourage proficient sluggers to join the Orioles. Profar could be an option as well, though he's coming off a good year and may regress. If Santander signs elsewhere, I think there's a need for another bat in the DH mold. That could be Justin Turner or Paul Goldschmidt on a one year deal. Vet leadership and possibly getting the last bit of juice from a bat that's set to be put away soon. Two guys who'd improve the lineup but seem unlikely are Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. The former plays a position the O's currently have covered, while the latter would be too expensive to justify considering the options at first. There's also former O, Christian Walker. The thinking there is he's a free agent, comes back home, so to speak, and allows you to move at least one of Mayo and Mountcastle, if not both.

With Burnes going and Bradish injured, there is clearly a need for at least one top 3 rotation arm, which is not the most defined criteria. It could be a gamble like Walker Buehler, who came back from TJ and wasn't sharp (still in the World Series though). Trade targets could include Logan Gilbert (Mariners), who led the league in innings, as that's a club badly in need of offense. Luis Castillo is likely the most attainable from that rotation, given age and salary. Likewise, Framber Valdez (Astros) could maybe be brought in via trade. Luis Severino and Sean Manaea both pitched pretty well for the Mets in their run this season (180+ innings each), though it would make some sense to stay in New York or go to a team that may offer more money or a longer contract. The point here is Burnes threw 60 more innings (essentially 10 full starts) than any other Oriole. Following him on that list is Albert Suarez, a player who'd been out of the league for years and is a fringe starter/bullpen piece on a good team. Dean Kremer was third, with an ERA just over 4, and he should realistically be the 5th starter on a contender. Cole Irvin was DFA'd, Grayson Rodriguez has consistently had injury concerns, and nobody else reached the 80 inning plateau. That's a major concern. Of the top 10 on the innings pitched list, not counting Seattle who had a bottom two offense with a historically bad team accompanying them down there, 6/8 pitchers made the playoffs. Yes, to win you need scoring, this is obvious, but there's also pitching and defense. The D-Backs were amazing on offense but got next to nothing pitching wise, thus they missed the playoffs by a game. Contrary to the postseason narrative, this is a good offensive ballclub that just needs a slight boost. The bullpen should be alright with Bautista back, could probably use a lefty, but the main issue is the rotation if Burnes is gone. That was long winded, so I'll give my lineup and pitching depth now.

vs RHP: Cowser LF, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, O'Hearn 1B, Kjerstad RF, Rutschman C, Mayo DH, Mullins CF, Holliday 2B

vs LHP: Westburg 2B/3B, Henderson SS, Rutschman DH, New RF*, Mayo 1B, Urias 3B/2B, Cowser/Slater LF, Backup C*, Mateo CF

Rotation: Grayson, New SP, Eflin, Kremer, Povich/Suarez (plus Rogers, McDermott, Young)

Bullpen: Bautista, Cano, Coulombe, Dominguez, Soto, Akin, Perez (Scott or another FA?)

From the rumblings during the 2024 season and the way the sport works, the Orioles are more likely to trade Mountcastle than Mayo. Personally, I see situations where both make sense. Do you sign a righty to play LF/RF and a DH/1B? Then yes, Mountcastle is obviously the better candidate to be dealt. However, if Slater + someone coming off a down year are the only righty bats brought in, and Santander isn't properly replaced in the lineup, the team is weaker than in 2024, especially HOPING that Mayo will hit. We're not privy to what they'll do pitching wise, so I filled out that part with placeholders. I don't think you can trust the health of Bradish and Rodriguez over the course of 162+, and the rest aren't quite enough in this division, much less to make a run in October. There is also the possibility to go for a lefty infield bat coming off a down year to balance out the lineup, given the struggles Holliday has had and the fact that all of Mateo, Urias, and Westburg are right handed. Think Yoan Moncada on a short "prove it" deal or Jorge Polanco if Seattle doesn't bring him back.

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World Series matchup

Bit of a bonus topic here, but with the World Series set to begin the day I'm set to release this, it's good timing to discuss the financial implications of the matchup. Of course this is somewhat agenda driven, but that's normal. I want to see the team I like spend money and compete. We've all seen the graphics and commentary around various owners and whether it's good or not that the best players and richest teams to play prominent roles on the biggest stage. I think it's amazing the level of irony that common folks who watch sports find ways to side with billionaire owners and defend them not spending money. All the while, their own interests are continuously pushed aside via ticket prices, merchandizing, and the difficulty to watch games on TV/online. It goes back to what I said about "Moneyball" and how that's skewed the perception of baseball. Yes, it's positive to see more than a handful of teams with a semblance of a chance to win each season. But at the same time, year on year a number of teams make zero attempt to make the playoffs in terms of roster construction and investment. Likewise, there are still 5 teams without a ring, and that doesn't include the Nationals and Rangers, whom won their first in the past 5 years by building competitive rosters by spending money. The Athletics, Marlins, Rockies, and White Sox in particular are bad for baseball. The Orioles were at the end of the Angelos regime. Many of the central teams have complaints about ownership and lack of investment in the roster (Pirates, Reds, Twins in particular). I get that there are markets, I do, but they all make hundreds of millions and only a few teams choose to invest. The Padres are a beautiful example, despite not winning, just like the Tigers when Mike Ilitch was alive. The point is that these teams (super teams if you will) should be celebrated, not despised. Jealousy is powerful. I by no means am a fan of the Dodgers or Yankees, but I like good baseball and watching the best players. Excuse me if I have no desire to watch fringe MLB players on a regular basis, much less spend my money or merchandise or tickets to subpar games. What I ask from the Orioles in particular, as that's my rooting interest, but really all MLB teams, is to be a little more ambitious and give us the best product possible. Prices aren't going down, so why should our expectations?