Is there a way up?

Chicago White Sox

CURRENT TEAM

To state the obvious, this team was horrifically bad in 2024. From that, Will Venable will get his first manager job, which I think is a positive. Intelligent guy, played in the show, fresh manager for a rebuild. The goal should be to maximize the value of “established” guys, so they’ll have to play most days, while giving chances to many young players, since losing is expected. The issue with that is trying to improve the team as much as possible while not killing the motivation and development of the many prospects and fringe MLB players in the organization. Likewise, it’s helpful to have a legit ace like Garrett Crochet, but with the volatility of modern day pitching and the fact that his contract is expiring after 2026, it’s time to trade him.

Benintendi is the obvious terrible contract there ($15m AAV through 2027), with Moncada ($14m AAV) having a buyout option ($5m vs $25m to stay) that the Sox will surely take advantage of. Same for Stassi at catcher ($7.5m option vs $500k buyout). Crochet will get a rise in arbitration if he isn’t traded. Robert makes $8 million per season which comes down to his health and production in terms of justification. As in, it’s a steal if he’s actually healthy, but usually he isn’t, hence why they’ll hold until the deadline barring an overpay.

The goal of the offseason should be to bring in cheap, replacement level players who will be around for a year or two. Give Bryan Ramos and Colson Montgomery a chance in the infield, be it at 3B and SS respectively or 1B and 3B. There are literally zero remaining players from the 2024 team who had a league average or better OPS+, which is some feat. Thus, again, there has to be a balance of giving prospects their chance, but also not throwing them in way over their heads to fail and lose confidence.

PROSPECTS

Jairo Iriarte (22) RHP MLB - 1.50 ERA 1.83 WHIP 6 IP MLB, 3.71 ERA 126 IP AA

Ky Bush (24) LHP MLB - 5.60 ERA 2.04 WHIP 17.2 IP MLB, varied results 100 IP AA/AAA

Bryan Ramos (22) 3B MLB - .202 BA .585 OPS 99 AB MLB, .263 BA .755 OPS 243 AB’s AAA

Nick Nastrini (24) RHP MLB - 7.07 ERA 1.91 WHIP 35.2 IP MLB, 5.29 ERA 1.59 WHIP 85 IP AAA

Jake Eder (26) LHP MLB - 6.61 ERA 1.86 WHIP 109 IP AA/AAA

Sean Burke (24) RHP MLB - 4.62 ERA 1.29 WHIP 64 IP AAA

Colson Montgomery (22) SS AAA - .214 BA .710 OPS 485 AB’s AAA

Edgar Quero (21) C AAA - .295 BA .845 OPS 95 AB’s AAA

Mason Adams (24) RHP AAA - 5.82 ERA 1.71 WHIP 17 IP AAA

Noah Schultz (21) LHP AA - 1.48 ERA 1.02 WHIP 61 IP AA

Jacob Gonzalez (22) SS/2B AA - .225 BA .605 OPS 365 AB’s AA

Wilfred Veras (21) OF AA - .267 BA .743 OPS 491 AB’s AA

Hagen Smith (21) LHP A+ - 7 IP in Winston Salem after Arkansas season and draft

Grant Taylor (22) RHP, George Wolkow (18) OF, Jeral Perez (19) 2B, Alexander Albertus (20) INF - all in A ball

It’s a solid group, boosted by trades and higher draft picks. The pitching duo of Schultz and Smith will make its ascent through the minors, barring injuries, and will be a welcome addition to the Sox when the time comes. It’s important to figure out what the pitchers nearing the big league club can give, despite the hurdles of being a historically bad team in 2024. If Clevinger, Flexen, and Soroka all leave, there will be many innings to eat from starters, so Bush, Iriarte, Nastrini, and co. could all see plenty of time on the rubber. Getz and Venable will have to decide what to do with Montgomery and Quero. Do they start the season in Chicago, or do they stay in Charlotte to develop?

Free agency and trades

Much of this comes down to what will happen with Crochet and Robert. If you can get a couple major league ready guys, they’d slot into the lineup or rotation. If it’s a bunch of prospects, there has to be a little bit (literally) of money spent to have a full roster. Pitching wise, I’m looking at the likes of Patrick Corbin, Alex Cobb, Trevor Williams, Anthony DeSclafani, Ross Stripling, Zach Davies, John Means, Spencer Turnbull, and whoever else can be relatively healthy and give innings. It’s that dire. Even a failed Cardinals pitcher like Miles Mikolas, or Steven Matz if the Sox believe he'd add value on the mound. You don’t want to ruin whatever potential the young guys have by putting them in roles they aren’t ready for, when you are clearly not winning many games in 2025. Same thing with relievers if that’s a necessity. There are many “mid” guys out there in free agency.

For this exercise, let's say Chicago brings in Corbin and Mikolas to fill out the rotation once Crochet is traded to Boston. Austin Slater has already signed, and we'll grab Jason Heyward on a one year deal if the Sox don't get Abreu from Boston. Who likes hitters? I do! Now we'll add Joey Gallo (1B/OF), Cavan Biggio (2B), and Nick Ahmed (SS) to one year deals, so that the rookies (Montgomery, Quero, Ramos) aren't the only options at their positions and can be in AAA at times to work on issues that come up at the highest level.

2025 Lineup: Robert (Vargas) CF, Benintendi/Slater LF, Vaughn DH, GALLO 1B, ABREU RF, Sosa 2B, Lee (Quero) C, BIGGIO (Ramos) 3B, AHMED (Montgomery) SS

Rotation: CORBIN, Cannon, MIKOLAS, Martin, Burke, Thorpe (Bush, Iriarte)

The thinking here, as mentioned previously, is after last season it can only get better. I firmly believe that this lineup wins more the 41 games, as the 2024 record was so abysmal it's difficult to comprehend. I moved Vargas to the outfield because his bat isn't good enough for 3B, plus Robert will either be moved or miss time like he always does. Benintendi won't be moved unless it's a salary dump involving Crochet, which will limit the return, and that defeats the purpose of trading your best pitcher. Mentioning Crochet again, it's by no means certain that Abreu will even end up in Chicago in said trade, but it does make sense given how much club control he has and the fact that the Red Sox need a strong LHP. Corbin and Mikolas provide innings, not great ones, but innings nonetheless, and that is a requirement for the White Sox. What else? Time for rookies. Like I said, all of Montgomery, Quero, and Ramos should be introduced to MLB, but not given full responsibility as everyday players until they're proven ready. The closest OF to the bigs appears to be Wilfred Veras, who had an acceptable 2024 in AA Birmingham. Corner outfielder. Not ready yet. Hence why I move Vargas to CF and bring in Abreu via trade, in addition to the already confirmed Austin Slater signing. If Benintendi or Robert are moved, I'd sign Ramon Laureano (good bat) or Michael A. Taylor (elite defense), respectively, as a replacement. Big "if" though. No point wasting money if your two big earners are still around. Continue to develop Schulz and Smith, as they're the future. Figure out what's going on with Bush, Iriarte, and Nastrini while Corbin and Mikolas eat up innings in the meantime.

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Miami Marlins

New manager *STILL TBD* will be given a clean slate in Florida. It's less than comforting for this search to be shambolic, but hey, it happens. There’s a massive caveat of health, but the rotation is mighty impressive down in Miami. That is, if the top two aren’t traded. The word is Alcantara will be in Miami to start the 2025 season. Offensively, there are the obvious issues of a perpetually rebuilding club, but 2024 saw some positives. Xavier Edwards had a 2 WAR season (70 games), and OPS+ of 124, and doesn’t become arb eligible until 2027. Connor Norby had the best stint of his brief career seeing everyday playing time after the Trevor Rogers trade, and he can play both 2B and 3B. He still strikes out too much, but that’s why adjustments and coaching exist. Jake Burger led the team in strikeouts as well as home runs over a full season, while Jonah Bride played a similar amount of games as Edwards and hit 11 homers. I could see one of Burger and Bride being moved if there’s interest, as they’re a bit redundant, especially on a purposely bad team.

CURRENT TEAM

Got rid of most of the contracts. Only ones now really are Alcantara and Luzardo who add up to about $20m per season, which is a steal if they’re both healthy. Healthy being the operative word here. With that said, given the lack of mention of outfielders above, I’ll quickly mention Jesus Sanchez as the only one I’d pencil into the opening day lineup. Griffin Conine and Kyle Stowers are AAAA guys who can exist on a bad MLB team but have no place on a decent to good one. They can take up at bats and trot out to the outfield, but what’s really the point? I haven’t watched Conine much, but Stowers has never fixed the holes in his swing, resulting in an abundance of strikeouts. Victor Mesa Jr. deserves a chance. There are also some guys who can play outfield, but aren’t necessarily naturals there (Sanoja, Pauley) which is not ideal. With how MLB teams use prospects in mind, I don’t see those two starting with the big league club anyway. What else? A reason to move one of Jonah Bride and Jake Burger is to free up space for Agustin Ramirez and eventually Deyvison De Los Santos, both of whom play other positions but may end up at first. Speaking of catcher, that could be a position to seek an upgrade in free agency, at least temporarily. I don’t know how the aforementioned Ramirez handles the position, but Nick Fortes was the everyday guy in 2024, playing 110 games, and hitting wise he was not up to par (56 OPS+). Max Meyer (RHP) is another name, but he hasn’t been healthy or productive enough to establish himself as a big league starter, even on a bad team.

Special mention for Eury Perez, who made 19 starts in 2023 before missing 2024 with Tommy John. Still 21 years old at the time of writing (arbitration years start in 2027), one would expect him to stick around a while and be the ace once Alcantara and Luzardo are traded.

PROSPECTS by level

Agustin Ramirez (23) C/1B MLB .262 BA,.805 OPS in AAA 141 AB’s

Adam Mazur (23) RHP MLB - 7.49 ERA MLB 33.2 IP, 5.21 ERA in AAA 38 IP

Javier Sanoja (22) SS/2B/OF MLB - .229 BA 35 AB’s MLB, .291 436 AB’s AAA

Victor Mesa Jr. (23) OF MLB - .259 BA in AAA .749 OPS 321 AB’s

Graham Pauley (24) 3B/2B/OF MLB - .125 BA 32 AB’s MLB, .228 BA .732 OPS 254 AB’s AAA

D. De Los Santos (21) 1B/3B AAA - .240 BA .743 OPS 196 AB’s AAA

Out of this group, Mesa and Sanoja are the only ones I’d expect to be truly ready, and even then it’s a crapshoot projecting guys’ abilities in the majors off what they do in the minors. Ramirez may see time at C/DH/1B, simply because there's not much to lose. I'd be cautious with him, however, as he's still young and hasn't seen that much of AAA. Same with DLS, who is even younger. For service time purposes, both should start in AAA and be given a chance later in the season.

Robby Snelling (20) LHP AAA - 5.15 ERA 1.52 WHIP 115 IP, mostly AA

Jared Serna (22) SS/2B AAA - .266 BA .733 OPS 154 AB’s AA

Jakob Marsee (23) OF AAA - .200 BA .660 OPS 485 AB’s mostly AA, better in AAA…

Jacob Berry (23) OF/3B AAA - .240 BA .670 OPS 477 AB’s mostly AA

Joe Mack (21) C AA - .241 BA .778 OPS 423 AB’s AA

Like the section above, all of these players have an outside shot to see the majors in 2025. It could only be a couple games, or they could all stay in AA/AAA. It's a process, and there's no need to rush anyone.

Kemp Alderman (22) OF AA - .240 BA mostly A/A+ ball

Andrew Pintar (23) OF AA - .304 BA in A+, .190 BA in AA

Dax Fulton (23) LHP AA - only 33 innings pitched

Jacob Miller (21) RHP AA - 3.85 ERA 1.24 WHIP 114 IP A+/AA

Nathan Martorella (23) 1B/OF AA - .214 BA .659 OPS 378 AB’s AA

Similar to the prior group, these guys are there to learn and gain experience, with the org hoping a couple will make it to the big leagues. Alderman and Pintar have featured in the Arizona fall league, and maybe others have too, but that often helps guys develop quicker than they may have otherwise.

Thomas White (20) LHP A+ - 2.61 ERA 1.16 WHIP 62 IP A+

Noble Meyer (19) RHP A+ - 5.18 ERA 1.43 WHIP 40 IP A+

Karson Milbrandt (20) RHP - 4.33 ERA 1.51 WHIP 97 IP A+

Gage Miller (21) 2B/3B - .200 BA .485 OPS 80 AB’s A+

Carter Johnson (18) SS, Dillon Head (20) OF, PJ Morlando (19) OF - all ROK / A ball

My biased favorites are the guys I watched in Beloit over the summer, Noble Meyer and Thomas White. I never pitched and am not freakishly tall, so it’s fun to watch folks get the opportunity to follow their dreams using their gifts. I’d expect those two to see time in AA in 2025, but there’s no reason to rush them.

Free agency and trades

With news that Alcantara will start the 2025 season with the club, the sensible move is to trade Luzardo before he has the chance to get injured again. Many teams will be interested, so you take the best return package. Alcantara is next in that sense, and since Faucher is pre-arb still, it doesn't have to be now, but that could be a pitching package to bring back a haul at the deadline or next offseason. And Jake Burger. Though I don't know which team needs a poor defensive 1B or yet another DH with poor plate discipline.

I would take some flyers on players who would come in for relatively cheap, short term deals. One example is Yoan Moncada as an infield bat, low risk high reward. He's Cuban and could play a position that's relatively open, depending on where Connor Norby plays. Other options include Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler, Harrison Bader, Austin Hays, Jason Heyward, Aaron Hicks, Michael Taylor, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, and Travis Jankowski. All of those are veteran outfielders.

There are 12 options in the 33+ year old catcher category, so I won’t name them, but there are certainly options out there if the Marlins want Ramirez to work on things at the dish or behind the plate. One off the cuff option, assuming one of the big boppers is moved, would be a nearly retired veteran presence in the form of J.D. Martinez or Matt Carpenter. This would only make sense if one of Bride and Burger moves on.

There are plenty of pitching options out there, and I’ll just mention two. John Means, coming off Tommy John and having not pitched in basically two years, as well as Michael Soroka, who could have better options elsewhere but showed some life as a reliever late in the season. The idea here is it’s better to have more options than not, given the injury prone nature to the pitchers in Miami. If Soroka can be a good reliever (or starter?), you could obviously use him longer term or move him at the deadline, depending on the deal. He can do better though. Means is similar, except he’s always been a starter. He could fill the spot of Alcantara or Luzardo if one or both is moved. Is he durable? Another Oriole I'd look at is Danny Coulombe if he doesn't have a better option. He's older and has had injury issues, but the stuff is still there in a lower leverage setting like Miami currently is. If you pay him a couple million, that's nothing grand scheme if it goes south, but you could also flip him for something if it works out.

Through scouring the internet a bit, I found a trade idea where the Twins would get Luzardo for Trevor Larnach. I don't think that's enough, but if that were to happen and maybe they throw in a pitcher (Morris or Soto), Jesus Sanchez could be moved. He's 27. His arb years start in 2025 and we know how cheap the Marlins are. Too many moving parts to assume it'll happen, though. The other option I saw in said article was Luzardo straight up for Royce Lewis. I don't think that makes too much sense, seeing as Lewis has injury/production issues and since the Marlins choose to be cheap, they can't afford IL players and need top value in trades for their few good players.

2025 Lineup: Edwards (Sanoja) SS, Lopez 2B, Burger DH, Sanchez RF, Bride/Stowers 1B, BADER/Mesa Jr. CF, Norby 3B, Conine/HAYS LF, Fortes (Ramirez) C

Rotation: S. Alcantara, J. Luzardo, E. Cabrera, R. Weathers, B. Garrett, A. Mazur / M. Meyer

*Perez recovering from T.J.

Without any concrete links for a Luzardo trade, I've left him in the rotation. Thus, the lineup is what it is, with the addition of a couple outfielders (Bader and Hays) the Marlins could probably get for cheap if they don't get interest from more competitive teams. Bader is a U of Florida guy, plays good defense, and is used to the NL East coming from the Mets. Allows Mesa to get enough time but not be overused. Hays hits lefties. I'd have Stowers learn first and be the backup there and whichever corner outfield spot is light. What's the point being bad if the young players aren't given a chance? I listed a 6 man rotation since Luzardo could be moved and Perez is currently unavailable, leaving Mazur and Meyer to fight for a spot or be in the bullpen. The youth is there. Both higher up and at the lower levels. Thomas White, Noble Meyer, and Robbie Snelling on the pitching side. Joe Mack, Carter Johnson, Dillon Head, and PJ Morlando for position players.

Verdict

Some of this is obvious, but the Marlins at this point are in a better position than the White Sox. Record wise, rotation wise, and the offenses are about the same (both bad). However, if you look at the top pitching prospects for both, as well as the top trade chips, I’d favor Chicago. Likewise, if Reinsdorf can ever find it in him to spend money, sell the team, or just die, the future would suddenly appear brighter on the South Side. The health aspect of Miami’s rotation induces concern, which is another reason to move Alcantara and Luzardo as soon as a satisfactory package is offered. There’s also the fact that in 2025, due to being abysmal for a number of years, the White Sox cannot pick higher than 10th thanks to the new MLB rule. Drafts are hit and miss, but Miami in all likelihood will have the opportunity to draft the superior player in the first round, be it the first, second or third pick. In 2024, for example, the Sox drafted Hagen Smith (5th) while the Marlins drafted PJ Morlando (16th). Projection wise, it's a clear win for Chicago. The main way that goes the other way is if Smith has injury problems or never masters his command at higher levels, while Morlando develops into an MLB caliber outfielder for Miami in the next 3-4 years. At the end of the day, neither of these teams will win if management continues to be cheap and every time a player becomes elite or even good, he's traded away to a better team.