What to expect from Villarreal in Champions League

The 2021/22 season will be the first time in 10 years that Villarreal will be participating in the Champions League group stage. The club has been a Europa League regular, with a streak of five years in the competition from 2014/15 to 2018/19, before winning it in 2020/21. I always say to take Transfermarkt values with a grain of salt, given the bias of those who operate the site, but here are the total values (in pounds) of the clubs in group F:

Young Boys 56m, Villarreal 269m, Atalanta 374m, Man Utd 843.5m. There's an obvious favorite and a clear whipping boy, no pun intended, while Atalanta and Villarreal *should* fight for second to advance to the RO16.

Looking at their first three La Liga games, plus their one off matches against Chelsea and United, I'll be looking at personnel, style of play, as well as strengths and areas to exploit. My perspective is that of a person who watches Atalanta every week, Man United regularly, and Villarreal on occasion (Young Boys, never).

Espanyol (A) 0-0

Granada (H) 0-0

Atleti (A) 2-2

Chronologically, I'll start with the latest match, and then cover the other two. I watched the Atleti one, 1.5 times actually, so I'm crystal clear on what happened. The first half was horrible. Villarreal didn't have a shot, and Atleti should have been one or two goals up. Second half was an improvement, but it's not like they were amazing. For their goals, there's a banger from Trigueros from pretty much nothing, and the mix up between Atleti CBs that led to Pino feeding Danjuma to make it 2-1. Atleti scored from two mistakes. The obvious one at the end has been shown all over the place, but the first goal from Suarez comes off a botched throw in situation where Correa has a simple cut back in the box. My takeaway from that game is Villarreal were dominated, yet somehow found themselves ahead. A point is a good result, despite throwing the other two away at the end.

In terms of the other two La Liga fixtures, Villarreal dominated the ball in both with 60/40 possession. The difference was chance creation. In the Espanyol game, they lost on xG 0.63 to 1.70, which is a significant margin. Espanyol missed a few (3) good chances, and then created some low quality ones for the other 11 shots. Villarreal did nothing of note, registering 7 shots but all 0.05 or less in terms of xG. The Granada performance was better, though they still didn't score (xG was 1.08 to 0.31). To caveat this, Granada look horrible so far and Moreno is a massive downgrade to Martinez, while Espanyol fixed up in their season in Segunda and are solid defensively. Either way, Mandi and Moreno had headers (against Granada) that could have been scored, but it's not like they had a bevy of grade A chances. 14 shots, with an xG just over one. 5 shots at the edge of the box or beyond isn't great.

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How will these Champions League games play out against Atalanta and Man Utd?

What I'm curious to see is how Emery will set up. All three of these teams (excluding Young Boys from the group, who I know next to nothing about) have more of the ball than their league opponents, but at least one of them (United) by far prefers to hit teams on the break. Atalanta are probably less of that, mostly because they get numbers forward with the attacking 3-5-2/3-4-2-1 and have attacking patterns, but they'll hit you on the break as well. If I'm Emery, I'm looking to park the bus, like he did against Chelsea and United. They had 38% and 40% possession, respectively, diving left and right like Spanish teams do, while sitting in a deep block. But it was effective. They got to pens against superior opposition each time. I wonder if being at home will affect that, and if playing a "smaller" team in Atalanta will push Emery to be more expansive. I wouldn't, at least in Bergamo and at Old Trafford.

Another factor here is the Spanish duo of Gerard Moreno and Dani Parejo, which gets into personnel. Gerard has not had a break this summer, featuring in the Euros team that made the semi, and then having the super cup and the start of the domestic campaign. Meanwhile, Parejo is yet to feature this season with a muscle injury. What I find, in terms of the system, is that playing Moreno on the left wing and Trigueros in the middle increases athleticism, but control goes out the window. Capoue is the ball winner, Parejo is the distributor, and Trigueros is the presence going forward. Without Parejo, Trigueros is less effective in a deeper, more reserved role.

I've discussed Pino before. He's only 18, but looks one of if not the best player in this team already. If he's going to get starting minutes, it'd be smart to stay at the club for this season and at least one more, but he should have a bright future. I like Dia as the partner up front for Moreno. Bacca is old now, sadly, and Alcacer is more of a poacher.

For the back line, I like the CB's (Albiol, Torres, Mandi). The fullbacks are odd, in that Foyth to me is a CB, but he ends up at RB. My explanation for this is Pino needs freedom to attack on the right, so you put a defense first guy who's decent on the ball at RB. Meanwhile, they have three LB's who are varying levels of reliable. I'd personally rank them Pedraza, Estupinan, Moreno. In games where the opponent's RB is effective going forward, it can make sense to double up to slow that down. Atleti, for example, like to attack down the right with Trippier and Llorente, so you nullify that with two LB's. It's also a personnel issue, though, as I was saying, as Trigueros is paired with Capoue when Parejo is out, instead of drifting in from the left.

One area I'd be looking to exploit is keeper. Looking at advanced goalkeeper metrics, both Asenjo and Rulli underperformed last season, saving fewer shots than they'd be expected to (post shot expected goals). I'd pick the former over the latter, and the Argentine has already cost the team two points with that boneheaded play against Atleti. It also makes sense from a coaching perspective that Emery would play more defensive against teams with good attackers. Play an attacking, possession based game against weaker sides, controlling the play, and put defenders in front of goal against higher level players.

Key players: I already highlighted them, but Gerard and whoever partners him (probably Dia), Pino, and Parejo. Special mention for the back line, assuming they're under threat all game.

Overall, it will come down to the tactical decisions each coach makes. Atalanta generally play the same way. Gung ho in getting numbers forward in attack, defending with one DM and the CB's while the wing backs attack the box. Man Utd struggle to break teams down, but thrive on the counter. Barring an early goal, I can see all the games being close, as I don't think Emery is naïve enough to open up for United, or Atalanta for that matter.