State of Serie A top 4

As the season winds down, the Champions League spots in Italy have already been sorted and the title is the only thing left for the top teams. Thus, it's time to take stock on what's gone on with each of the top four this season and give a general outlook on each. I love Italian football, but it's quite poor at the moment. To be fair, two teams in world football are head and shoulders above the rest, so that skews perspective, but it's objectively true that no Italian team is close to overtaking Bayern, Chelsea, Madrid, or PSG; much less City and Liverpool. I actually wrote about this a year ago, something to the effect of why Italian (and to a slightly lesser extent) Spanish teams need to embrace physicality and high intensity pressing and get with the times. Even in England Spurs play an Italian style and Man Utd don't have a style, so at most there are 4 "top" teams in that league right now. Either way, going from highest TM squad value, I'll assess each of the top four.

Juventus

Out of contract (2022): Dybala, Morata (loan w/ option), Bernardeschi, de Sciglio

Starters: de Ligt, Chiesa (post injury), Vlahovic, Locatelli, Bonucci, Cuadrado and/or Danilo

Loaned players: Mandragora, Rovella

Needs: a modern coach above all, but other than that... another goalscorer, CB to replace Chiellini, probably a better LB

Outlook: I've written a bit about them, having covered them for a month a little while back. The club is at a crossroads, and I don't think I'm exaggerating here. Allegri is finished as a top level coach, and I don't get why the people in charge of Juventus brought him back. He'll stay on, certainly, and it makes no sense. Not that there are amazing options out there, but Zidane is out of work and has ties to the club. It just seems futile. Doesn't matter who comes in if the structure is jacked up on the pitch. The game has moved past that "corto muso" nonsense. Dybala is going, and that's the right choice. I read about Di Maria potentially coming, and that would be an upgrade at RW. Locatelli and Vlahovic have come in and look worse than they did at Sassuolo and Fiorentina, respectively, and it shouldn't surprise anyone who knows the game. De Zerbi and Italiano improve players more than Allegri; it is what it is.

Potential signings: Assuming Allegri stays, here's what I'd do. I'd actually keep Morata. He can link well with Vlahovic up front. They need a goal scorer from midfield. McKennie, Rabiot, and Zakaria do plenty of running. Arthur and more so Locatelli can spray the ball around from deep. Ramsey is a former footballer at this point. Milinkovic-Savic is the guy. Maybe Gundogan as his contract is running down, though that'd be a step down for sure. I doubt it would ever happen but Conor Gallagher would combine work rate with technical quality, as well as the goal threat he's shown this season in England. I mentioned Di Maria already, and that makes sense with his contract expiring. A rather temporary but effective Chiellini replacement would be Gian Marco Ferrari. He's Italian and been playing in the league for a while, plus Juve is way better in terms of defensive structure than Sassuolo. I always mention Borna Sosa but he'd do what Alex Sandro did at his peak on the left flank. Imagine him whipping the ball in to McKennie, Milinkovic-Savic, Morata, Vlahovic, and the CB's. Assists for days. Stuttgart may well be relegated too, so he'd be cheap. Goalkeeper could be improved upon, and Donnarumma is Italian.

Inter

Out of contract (2022): Perisic, Vecino, D'Ambrosio, Handanovic, Caicedo, Frog, Kolarov

Starters: Bastoni, Skriniar, Brozovic, Barella, Dumfries, de Vrij (2023), Lautaro

Bench/loaned players: Pinamonti, Sensi, Vanheusden

Needs: either Lukaku back or a physical presence like Scamacca, Bremer to replace de Vrij, backup/partner for Brozovic, resign D'Ambrosio and Perisic (or replace the latter)

Outlook: still in with a chance, not that bad a season in reality. Lost Conte, Lukaku, Hakimi (one of the best RWB in the world) and still 2 points off, in cup final and kept Liverpool tie close. Brozovic re-signed, de Vrij can be replaced by Bremer, keep some depth guys. Improve the positions I mentioned and go again. Inzaghi is doing fine, and the football is better to watch IMO than when Conte was there. Hopefully the ownership situation is fixed, as it's a great club that should be competing at the top.

Potential signings: Already mentioned Lukaku and Scamacca for the forward role. Could either keep Lautaro or sell him and get Dybala on a Bosman. Replace de Vrij with Bremer and Onana comes in from Ajax to replace Handanovic. I've seen Paredes from PSG rumored, and that makes sense as he's Argentine and could both play with and replace Brozovic in the XI. Seems like they're going the sensible route.

Napoli

Out of contract (2022): Anguissa (buy option), Mertens (option), Ospina, Jesus (option, Malcuit, Ghoulam

Starters: Koulibaly (2023), Osimhen, Fabian (2023), Anguissa, Di Lorenzo, Zielinski, Rui

Bench/loaned players: not really any... Lozano, Rrahmani, Demme, Lobotka for rotation

Needs: KEEPER, renew Koulibaly, replace creativity of Fabian if he leaves, starting LB, backup RB, KK joining from Russia/Georgia

Outlook: another poor second half means they're not winning the league, despite it being pretty weak. Fabian out of contract soon and will likely be sold, so he'll have to be replaced. Insigne leaving, but that's a blessing in disguise for Napoli. My take is the club's mentality is rotten, and that will require a clear-out that hasn't yet happened. Everyone from the Sarri era has to go other than Koulibaly. That's actually not many guys now, but it's necessary. I've also seen some rumblings of Spalletti facing the sack. I can see why, but it's not like Italiano will come in and magically fix the mentality issues. Remember that they finished 5th last season.

Possible signings: Let's say Fabian is sold and Koulibaly and Osimhen stay. The clear issue in that case is you're losing arguably your two most creative players (Insigne is the other). Lozano and Politano are good carriers of the ball, so it would make sense to use them as inverted wingers. Georgian KK is also good at dribbling, so at least one progressive passer is needed. I'm not sure on wages or firm contract lengths, but both Ander Herrera and Remo Freuler are at least semi-capable of replacing the passing ability of Fabian, and I don't' think they'd be that expensive. One Serie A winger to mention is Berardi, as he's up there in terms of creativity from the wing. Him and Politano on the right with Lozano and KK on the left could work. Osimhen has to stay. If they sell him, who would even come close to replacing him? I've seen Broja mentioned, but he's quite raw and simply a worse footballer at this point. This isn't a young squad like Milan where you have a group that'll grow together. You have maybe a year of Fabian left, Koulibaly could leave then too, and Juventus will eventually return to dominate.

Milan

Out of contract (2022): Kessie (gone), Romagnoli (likely gone), Florenzi (option), Messias (option), Zlatan

Starters: Maignan, Theo, Tomori, Calabria, Tonali, Bennacer, Leao, Kalulu/Kjaer

Bench/loaned players: Pobega, Adli, Hauge?, Caldara?

Needs: Striker, right winger, CB assuming Romagnoli leaves, maybe backup RB and LB

Overview: things are looking up. New owners should allow them to spend like they did 10+ years ago. On course to win the league. Young team as well, outside of Zlatan and a couple others. Need to work on the depth and upgrade quality wise at positions I mentioned. It still appears that the team is overperforming, or maybe it's that Inter and Juve are underperforming... Either way, they won't advance in CL with this level of football. Not to be an "xG nerd", but the stats say they are indeed living above their means, and the points model has them 11+ points worse off than they are. Of late, in particular, they've gotten Madrid in CL level luck with Acerbi and Terracciano giving them late goals to pick up 4 points more than they could have gotten.

Possible signings: Sven Botman would be an upgrade on Romagnoli at CB and allow them to play a back three. Mahrez, ambitious but possible, would bring the needed quality on the right wing to complement Leao on the left. A lesser option is to play Brahim there and keep Messias, but that's skimping and would mean the quality level is nowhere near good enough. Brahim is also on loan still, and I don't think there's an option. I wonder what type of striker Milan will go for. Could go for a creator type like David or Isak, with Leao scoring goals from the left and Giroud off the bench. Milan need someone to replace Kessie, and Renato Sanches has been linked. To be fair, Adli and Pobega could come back and be used in the first team, which could mean no new signing are necessary there. Divock Origi is rumored to come in, as his contract is up at Liverpool. Lukaku has been loosely mentioned, but I don't see it. Origi would be cheaper obviously than Lukaku, barring a loan move, but Lukaku is much better. Let's not forget that. Not saying Origi is mediocre, but let's be real, he has a niche role under Klopp and playing starter minutes will undoubtedly expose the flaws in his game. In particular, those are that his finishing is hit or miss, and his technique is appalling at times.