Southampton Deep Dive

I've been doing the rounds a bit in terms of clubs that I write about. My preferred leagues, no doubt influenced by which ones are available to me, are the PL, Bundesliga, and Serie A. A team I most certainly do not keep up with, but that I've seen slide down the table as the season has continued is Saints. The coach is Ralph Hasenhuttl, dubbed "the Alpine Klopp" by some. This is actually his longest stint as a manager, ever, and he's set to stay on until 2024. He's been flexible in terms of system at each club, 4-3-3 at Ingolstadt to a 4-4-2 at Leipzig and at Saints he's mainly gone 4-4-2 since starting out with a back 3. The club is/was known for having an impressive academy, producing Gareth Bale, Theo Walcott, Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw, and more. The most recent success by far has been James Ward-Prowse, the current captain of the side. Speaking of the youth team, the current edition is rock bottom of their PL2 league. Granted, this features City and Chelsea, which makes it rather unfair. But yeah, something happened there and the academy isn't what it was 5-10 years ago.

As I look at stats, which I brought up after checking out the squad, I was curious about the keepers. That, to my naked eye, is a weak point, with a past-it Fraser Forster recently taking over for the mediocre (at best) Alex McCarthy. That was just my assessment without even really watching them or looking up stats. The stats do indeed back up my theory, at least post-shot expected goals. Saints are worst in the league, and it's a shocking disparity. If zero is average, as in you're saving all the shots you should and not saving difficult ones, that would be Ramsdale at Sheffield United. Saints, on the other hand, are at -7.9 (-6.1 for McCarthy and -1.8 for Forster), and the closest to them is Wolves at -3.9. That is SHOCKING. For context on the other side of things, Martinez (Villa) and Areola (Fulham) are at +7, which is impressive. Almost like investing in key positions benefits the team in the long run. To think of where Fulham would be without the PSG loanee...

Here are a few bullet points on the tactics (thanks to Tifo on YouTube)

-Patient build up from the back to draw the opponent forward

-Get it wide quickly (or recycle) and overload box

-Press certain passing lanes, force turnovers or rushed long balls they can recover

-Often play short, high passes, but not long ones (fewest crosses into penalty area)

-4-2-2-2 (narrow wide midfielders/ 10s)

-High defensive line

-Pressing triggers (ball goes somewhat wide, to CB, not in middle)

-Can be exploited out wide or through midfield if rotations aren't quick enough

Another number I'm interested in is non-penalty expected goals. Saints are 4th bottom in that, which is less than ideal. They're one behind Newcastle, two behind Fulham, and of the teams below them (WBA, Palace, Blades) two of them have been relegated. Continuing with that stat, two individuals appear in the top 85 in that list, Adams (20th at 7.9, 8 actual goals) and Ings (37th at 5.7, 10 non-pen goals). It's interesting to me that Adams had two more expected goals in that sense, but I guess it follows considering he played 500 more league minutes.

With all that being said, here's my assessment of what's gone on, in terms of the high-flying first bit and the dreadful (relegation) form since around the Liverpool win. If you look at how teams have had success, it's been more pragmatic than before. Pressing teams like Bayern and Liverpool have cooled it down, and those are super clubs. In the Premier League, as I've said before, only a few teams have depth. West Ham are almost the opposite of Saints, stylistically, and until Rice and Antonio started missing games they were a top four side. Southampton press, have no depth, and the quality even in the starting XI is midtable level at best. I mean seriously, I look at that squad and few players get into any half decent side (Ings and JWP, maybe Bednarek). The keepers are not good, the best striker has missed 10 games and his form has dipped, Romeu has missed time as well (15 matches), and the squad just isn't that good. Also, trying to press and play a high line with Vestergaard is a bold move, given his lack of pace.

Now it's time to asses the squad. Here's a depth chart:

CF: Ings, Adams, Obafemi, N'Lundulu

Wing/10: Tella, Walcott (loan), Minamino (loan), Redmond, Djenepo

CM: JWP, Romeu, Armstrong, Diallo, Smallbone

LB: Bertrand, McQueen (injured, retiring?)

RB: Walker-Peters

CB: Bednarek, Salisu, Vestergaard, Stephens

GK: McCarthy, Forster

Loaned out:

Elyounnoussi (LW), Lemina (CM), Hoedt (CB), Valery (RB), Gunn (GK), Sims (RW), Long (CF), Hesketh (AM)

Looking at those, to be quite frank, I don't see more than a one or two coming back. I could see Fulham buying Lemina, or him going elsewhere assuming Ralph stays. Elyounnoussi has 8 goals and 4 assist (29 apps) at Celtic, which isn't great for that league... Hoedt has been horrible when I've seen him at Lazio. Valery didn't play much at Birmingham, which isn't a good sign as they're 18th... Gunn has played 1/3 of the games at Stoke; maybe he'll come back as a backup? Hesketh and Sims have expiring deals, don't think they'll be renewed considering they're in the 4th and 3rd tier respectively. Long is 34, deal ends 2022, poor finisher but works hard. Best to cut ties. So yeah. Lemina could do a job, and that's about it, but I don't see him coming back.

I've explained the general style of play, assessed the squad, and now it's time to set some targets. I read something just doing a quick search that the club will be aiming for players valued at about 10m, so that's convenient for this exercise.

Left back is a must, given they have one whose contract is up (Bertrand) and one that I've read might have to retire due to injury (McQueen). Keeper as well, given how bad they've been, and Angus Gunn is not the answer. Right back as well, since KWP is the only one at the club. One winger, since Minamino and Walcott won't be staying. I'd say two, but Armstrong plays there (despite being listed at CM) and Elyou is coming back. I'd be looking at a striker as well, give one of the young guys a loan, but the club is cheap so that's an optional one. One CM as well, just because I see that area as being light.

GK- having explained the issue about stopping shots, I have one ideal pick and one more realistic one. Sam Johnstone is the realistic one, given WBA were relegated. The "ideal" one is Sergio Herrera from Osasuna. He's fourth in the "top five leagues" at the stat I mentioned, while Johnstone is 5th. Areola is another shout (2nd in that metric), though he could do better, if we're being real. Bring in one of those two, preferably Herrera. Keep Forster, sell McCarthy, loan/sell Gunn.

LB- one player I've seen linked is Brandon Williams on loan. That's a good link, as they'll literally have no one in that position when Bertrand leaves. Can play on either flank as well. I looked up similar players to Bertrand on fbref and found Riccardo Marchizza (Spezia) and Aihen Munoz (la Real). The former is more suited size wise to English football, but I've liked the little I've seen of Munoz. I could see van Aanholt from Palace coming in, as his contract expires as well. That could be a decent duo if Williams were to come on loan. Another guy I'd look at is Robinson from Fulham, mostly because his game would fit at Saints. He's an energy guy, not great at crossing (which they don't even do), good at getting past a man.

RB- I'm actually struggling a bit here. One person I thought of was Jonjoe Kenny. He's on loan at Celtic right now, and his contract ends in 2022. Could compete with KWP for a spot. Another guy on loan is one of my favorites, Tomas Esteves (at Reading from Porto). I have no idea how he's done there, but he's 19 and has some experience in England. I imagine he'd want to prove himself at Porto, however. An older player that could come in and provide leadership and steadiness is Hiroki Sakai from Marseille. His contract is up next year and at 31 he'd balance out the youthful exuberance of KWP. Same with Clyne (former Saint), whose deal is up at Palace. Not sure about his fitness though.

CM- what they have is a creator who's deadly at set pieces, and a couple "ball winner" types. I'm now looking for open-play goals, or at least some more creativity. On the more expensive side is Joe Willock. I liked him before this run of form at Newcastle, btw. A bit cheaper, probably a loan/buy back situation is Yangel Herrera. He's at Granada from Man City, 23 y/o, good size, tenacious, decent technically. Another outside shot is Razvan Marin, currently at Cagliari from Ajax. It's not worked out in Amsterdam, hence the loan, and he's in a massively underachieving side in Italy. 3 goals 6 assists is a decent haul, all things considered. In a more defensive mold, I'll mention some French guys. Pape Gueye from Marseille (rhymes) and Malsa from Levante. They should've picked up Tyler Adams before he went to Leipzig...

Winger- I'm looking for a left footer ideally, who can score goals. Matheus Pereira from WBA is up there, given that they've been relegated and along with Johnstone and Yokuslu he's been the standout. 10 goals 5 assists in that side is solid. Robert Skov is an undervalued asset, being completely misused at Hoffenheim (played at wing back or on the bench). Another guy I like in Germany is Roland Sallai from Freiburg. Listed as both footed, 8 goals 8 assists this season, at a selling club. Could do much worse than that.

CF- the 10m value sector of strikers is a mess. So hit and miss. Gotta give a shoutout to Raul de Tomas. Only issue there is Espanyol are coming back up and he'd cost a decent amount. Adam Armstrong is another tearing it up in the second tier, and I reckon he'd cost at least 20 as well. You know what, I'll recommend Josh Sargent here. Playing in a god-awful Bremen team, puts in the work, has technique, can finish, why the hell not. Another with surprisingly good defensive contribution is Scamacca from Genoa (owned by Sassuolo). Bit of a hype beast in the calcio circles.

Last one, just for shits and gigs, is CB, which I just decided to look at since two of the ones at Saints are out of contract next year. If you're gonna play a high line for the pressing system, you'd ideally have fast guys at the back, right? Enter Jeremiah St. Juste from Mainz, one of the fastest guys in the Bundesliga. Loic Bade from Lens has to be on this list as well. This is the type of guy that Saints buy for relatively cheap and flip for 4 times as much a coupe years down the road. Could maybe get a guy like Tanganga or Tuanzebe on loan, since they already know the league.

Best case: Herrera in goal, Bade or St Juste at CB, Pereira or Sallai on the wing, any of the strikers I listed, Willock/Herrera on loan, Sakai at RB, Williams and Munoz at LB.

More realistic: Walcott stays and Elyounnoussi comes back/is loaned again, no new CB, no new striker, no new CM, PVA or another washed LB, Clyne comes back and barely plays, Forster and Gunn stink it up in goal.

Is that second option negative? Probably. But it's realistic. 10m really isn't a lot, and I was basing that off Transfermarkt, not the actual price one would be paying. For instance, with a guy like Bade having a great season as yet another talented/young/French CB, he'd probably go for 2x (or more) what he's listed at.

Outlook:

Personally, I like what Ralph is doing. I'm against this "pretty football" with no end product fad Arteta, Parker, Potter, and others have going. Pressing Hasenhuttl style is at least not that. It's also boring if every team plays defensive, route one football like Burnley, Newcastle, Palace and West Ham. Granted, the depth at Saints is appalling, the talent of the squad is questionable, and the nosedive in the second half of this season was not a fluke. It's one of those where if this form continues, they'll go down next season. That said, having a preseason and addressing the gaping holes in the squad should rectify many of the issues I covered. Again, shifting to the negative, Ings hasn't re-signed and his deal ends in 2022. I could see him being sold this summer if that remains the case, and I wouldn't trust the club to replace him. The more I think about it, the more likely that is, actually. Same with Vestergaard. His lack of mobility doesn't fit Ralph's style one bit, and he's "in his prime" age wise. Why would he waste it at a club that's currently 17th and doesn't challenge for trophies? In terms of relegation for next season, you obviously have to account for the three promoted sides. Norwich are yo-yo, Watford were trending downward and finally went down, just to come right back, and then whoever wins the playoff will be the underdog. Saints, Palace, Burnley, and Newcastle (with Ashley and Bruce) IMO are the others. I guess I should add Brighton, due to the massive underperformance, so that's 8 for 3 spots. If Ings goes and the keeper situation isn't fixed, they'll be in the thick of it. That's a poor way to close this out, so I'll add that the line is fine between going down and pushing for Europe. Look at West Ham. They signed the Czech guys and are battling with the big boys. You have a decent set of players in Ward-Prowse, Walker-Peters, Ings, Bednarek. Adams, Salisu, Redmond, Romeu, Diallo, Djenepo are all solid as well.