Sevilla discussion, pre 22/23 season

I'm getting hyped for Bundesliga and La Liga football, as I'll be purchasing ESPN+ for the foreseeable future, and one of the teams of interest in Spain is Sevilla. I'll openly admit that I stopped watching the league last season to focus on Serie A and the Premier League once it became blatantly clear that Bayern would win yet another Bundesliga title and Madrid would take the Spanish crown from Atleti. That said, I saw a decent amount of Sevilla, both domestically and in Europe, so I can at least somewhat assess how things went then and what this coming season could look like.

I'll nerd out for a minute regarding xG and that model of looking at the game to explain my issues with Lopetegui and the squad. Sevilla were at one point in a title race, don't let revisionism come into play because they finished 4th. Anyway, the underlying numbers, as they were, show that even a top four spot may have been a stretch based on the chance creation and stylistic issues. Basically, when I say stylistic issues, I'm referring to the deliberate approach against low blocks, usually resulting in spamming crosses against a set defense, as well as the overall lack of creativity despite the talent at hand. To simplify it, Lopetegui prioritizes defense over attack, which is fine for most teams, but if you want to get over the hump and ever challenge the top dogs you have to let the attack flow. Sevilla were 7th in expected points (57), but actually got 70 to finish 4th. Likewise, they scored 53 goals from an xG of about 47, while conceding an impressive 30 goals from an xG of 40. The top 3 attacks, xG wise, for comparison (Madrid, Barcelona, Villarreal), were at 80, 70, and 70. That's a huge gap.

Squad wise, next year Munir and Gudelj have expiring contracts. I wouldn't renew either. 2024 sees all of Ocampos, Lamela, Oliver, Rakitic, Papu, Fernando, Lopes, Navas, and Romero out of contract. The only must keep out of that group is Ocampos. Rakitic, Fernando, Navas, and Papu will all be 35+ then, so they'd at most get a one year extension. Lopes has been a failure. I can see Oliver staying, though he hasn't reached his "potential" either. I wonder about Lamela, given his injury history and lack of sustained form. I haven't seen Romero anywhere near enough to give a verdict on him as a player.

The main issue right now is center back, and right after that is goal scoring. Last season's high scorer was Rafa Mir with 10 goals, followed by Ocampos with 6 and Papu/En-Nesyri/Lamela on 5. It's somewhat balanced, I guess, but not good enough. The two strikers there are 24, which is a good age, but I have doubts whether either is a Champions League level striker, much less at a title challenging level. Maybe that's not the goal, as weird as that sounds. Equally alarming, given how close the season is to starting, is that the club has now sold both Kounde and Diego Carlos and only brought in Marcão. I won't lie and pretend I've watched his time in Turkey, but what I hear is he's left footed and should be the starter over Rekik. If Gudelj is the RCB backup, they need to buy a starter. I may do another piece on who I think is a suitable Kounde replacement. Either way, the other main depth issue is LB, where the only player is Acuna. Reguilon is rumored to be coming back on loan, which makes perfect sense. He's a left back, not a Conte wing back, and had a successful period at Sevilla when Madrid sent him on loan.

In terms of quality depth, given the fact that they're looking to keep a top four spot in La Liga and do something in the Champions League, Sevilla likely need one more player, in addition to Reguilon and whoever replaces Kounde. In the depth chart I made, the one hole is at CM, given that I listed Gudelj as backup CB and Delaney as backup DM. That said, they could buy two more CB's, have Gudelj as backup DM, and Delaney as backup CM. I can see the merit in both options. Ideally, you'd buy a starting caliber CB AND a CM who is either a goal threat or physically imposing. That's my perspective. I've seen them linked with Ceballos, however, though I don't see that happening.

For a season outlook, the reality is Sevilla will once again be looking to secure a top four spot. The top two are practically safe, year in year out, so that leaves two spots. Atleti won the league two seasons ago and in my opinion have the third best squad, so they should also be considered a near lock. That leaves one spot for Sevilla, Betis, La Real, and Villarreal to fight for. Regarding the underlying numbers, it could easily be argued that Villarreal "deserved" to finish higher up, maybe even in 3rd or 4th. All this to say, Sevilla have the "distraction" of Champions League football. By that I mean most teams in the top leagues don't take Europa or the Conference seriously during the group stages so they can focus on domestic competition. Sevilla can't do that because monetarily the Champions League is so much more profitable as teams advance deeper into the competition. As of now, assuming they only sign a CB, I think it'll be a battle for fourth and maybe they get out of the group stage, depending on the hand they're dealt in the draw.

The major issue with Sevilla, if the goal is to become a Champions League mainstay and maybe win a league title some day, is the model they're run by. And I get that Spanish football, and this is the case for any league where clubs aren't backed by foreign billionaires, is in a financial state. Italian football is too, and has been since the mid 2000's, while German football is forced to function in a sustainable way due to the 50+1 model. Stylistically, Sevilla resembles what Spanish football has become. They're well drilled/compact, but the buildup is slow and labored, and they play act embarrassingly in Europe, which only makes the physical limitations look worse when facing teams from England, France, and Germany in particular.