Sevilla #2: Alaves draw and Wolfsburg preview

I'm not sure what to say. I did the first piece about how I don't think this club will ever be taken seriously, and this is exactly the type of result that perpetuates this lack of credibility. It was the typical Sevilla game, 2/3 of the ball, double the shots, but at the end the xG was close (1.6 to 1.2). To be fair, that includes the penalty for Alaves at a 0.8, but dumb mistakes like giving away a free kick outside the box and then handling said free kick are part of the game. I didn't watch the whole game, but as soon as Laguardia scored, I knew it was quite likely that Sevilla would drop points.

I figure I should point out issues I had with the lineup. Naves is out so Montiel was at RB, while Augustinsson started instead of Acuna (taken out at HT). Oliver was in midfield. I personally believe this team will never reach that next level until they have a physical box-to-box presence in the midfield. It would never happen, but Kessie would be that player. Anyway, the two Alaves goals were from set pieces. Shocker. Corner in the 5th minute where the defenders were flat-footed, allowing Laguardia to glide in and head home powerfully.

One player I want to focus on is Rafa Mir. He's had an odd career, going from Valencia to Wolves, a few loans, and then this move to Sevilla. His best season was last year's relegation campaign at Huesca, where he scored 13 times from an xG of 13.6 in 32 starts. The main striker is En-Nesyri, who has gone from the second tier (Malaga) to relegation side Leganes to Sevilla. Luuk de Jong was there, and I can see why he was thought to be a fit with the cross-heavy style Lopetegui plays, but this caliber of player is not good enough to win titles. Mir was not given a fair shot at Wolves and was young at Valencia, but he just doesn't seem to have that it factor. En-Nesyri at least is fast and can finish, a similar type of player as Haaland and Vlahovic (left foot definitely helps this comparison). Back to this game. He had 6 shots for an xG of 0.52, but 5 of the shots were off target. That's pathetic. En-Nesyri has his limitations and blows hot and cold, but I just don't see Mir as a CL player, or even EL.

Now, time for the crucial Champions League fixture against Wolfsburg. The German side also drew 2-2 against inferior opposition. Bielefeld went 2-0 up at home before Wolfsburg clawed their way back to equalize. Again, in similar fashion, the visitors had basically double the possession, but shots and xG were close (10 to 13 and 1.40 to 1.55). Big chances, according to FotMob, were 2-1 in favor of Bielefeld. Something odd about the lineup was that on paper it looked like a 3-4-2-1 with Mbabu as a CB, which is crazy to me. It's possible that on the field it's a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2, depending on how you see Nmecha and where Steffen plays, but it's just bizarre to me that you'd play two right backs against a relegation level team. It didn't work, either, so you can't say "oh what a genius Kohfeldt is".

Speaking of Mbabu, looking at the goals, he's directly at fault for the first one. It's a team effort, to be fair, with a turnover as 5 guys go forward and they lose the ball, leading to a counter, and then Mbabu keeps Okugawa onside on the pass. I natural CB would know how to deal with that situation, but a RB/RWB handles it the way he did. Second goal... guess who's at fault? Mbabu. Bornauw gets drawn out and Mbabu makes a late challenge, leading to the 2-0. Not to totally trash the player, as he's actually good when played in his proper position, the two goals come literally right after Mbabu goes off for Lukebakio. The two goals are pretty simple. A nice bit of dribbling from Lukebakio and he crosses it low for a Weghorst tap in, and then a slip pass from Phillip puts Nmecha in to place a precise shot into the top corner near side. It's horrible defending from a bad team, but clinical enough from Wolfsburg.

In terms of the preview itself, I think it'll be a typical Sevilla game. Wolfsburg struggle to break teams down, so they'll sit back and do their lethal counterattacking, while Sevilla will have the ball as always and do nothing with it. The deciding factor will be whose style will be more effective on the day. If Sevilla wear Wolfsburg down, they may well score and see out the game. However, if Wolfsburg do their thing on the break, it'll be lights out for Sevilla. No result would be a surprise to me.