September pre-int'l break

I'm bored at work once again and have decided to preview some of the games coming up.

The Friday game is Roma v Milan. What intrigues me about this one is Milan are already at the top of the league, which isn't unexpected, while Roma are struggling (I predicted that). In terms of tactical battles, it'll come down to who ends up with the ball more, because to be honest both sides prefer to hit quickly on the counter than rely on slower buildup. From that angle, I think Mourinho would be happier with a draw than Pioli, but to be fair, it's a home game for Roma so they may feel more pressure to be the aggressor. Team news wise, Abraham and Kumbulla are out until next year with knee injuries for Roma. New arrivals Azmoun and Sanches will miss the match as well with shorter term issues. Bennacer, as usual, is injured for Milan. My prediction is a narrow Milan win. 2-1. They are devastating on the break and Rui Patricio has already shown his lack of ability in goal, which is not a good combination. Roma might nick a goal from a set piece, but they'll be well on their way to another subpar season in the capital, while Milan will be up there in the table once again.

Saturday features a bunch of games, of which I'll pick one from the three main leagues I watch. In England we have a relegation battle between Sheffield United and Everton, a midtable (maybe) game between Brentford and Bournemouth, and a top half tie featuring Brighton and Newcastle. Looking at them, the easy pick is the one with the best teams, but I think I'll go with a short synopsis of each.

• Starting at the bottom, Everton have created chances but have nobody to score them, unless Beto hits the ground running or DCL comes back, which I don't see happening. Sheffield United are poor on both ends, which is equally true of all the promoted sides this season. My hunch is a bore draw, either 0-0 or 1-1; no real rationale to be quite blunt.

• With Brentford v Bournemouth, my question is how will Brentford deal with the Bournemouth press. The bees tend to find success on the break, either after sustaining pressure or from winning the ball high. The same cannot be said so far with the cherries, who have managed a couple scrappy goals in poor showings as they adjust to their new manager. They also have injuries, to be fair, including potential starters Adams, Outtara, Scott, Smith, and Tavernier. The attack has been particularly dull so far, though they have played Liverpool, Spurs, and a rejuvenated West Ham.

• Finally, both Brighton and Newcastle are coming off losses. Stylistically, Brighton have one way to play, which is to bait the press and basically hit in transition. That does not work when the opposition is prepared and willing to sit back while the pass around the back. I don't think Newcastle will be happy with a draw, but it is an away game against a team that finished 6th last season. Injury wise, Enciso went down recently for Brighton, while the same can be said about Botman for the Toon. Willock is still out, and Hall apparently is short of fitness having joined from Chelsea. I think it'll be close, and I'll go score draw.

Over in Germany there's a quartet of games I found somewhat interesting. Augsburg v Bochum in "two teams that are terrible but stayed up", Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg in mid table mediocrity, Bremen v Mainz in "sort of traditional but super inconsistent", and Stuttgart v Freiburg in "sort of a mismatch but could be fun. Speaking of fun, my criteria for reducing my choices is xG, which I'm well aware is faulty this early on, but this is for fun. Freiburg and Stuttgart are 2nd and 4th, respectively, while Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg are 3rd and 6th. You know what? I'll pick both, since I can go back and forth if I'm at home.

Finishing up the day in Italy, we have Napoli v Lazio. This was one of the only matchups Napoli lost last season, and I would not be shocked if it happened again. The irony is that Sarri was long admired for his pretty football, and now he's reverted to defending against the good teams and winning 1-0, which was the score line in Naples as Napoli ran away with the title. I don't trust Rudi Garcia, Napoli imo having watched them all last season play just as well away from home, if not better, and Kvara has yet to play. Osimhen is carrying the attacking output, to be fair. Tactically, you'd expect Napoli to own possession with Lazio trying to hit the on the break, which is the typical Napoli game these days. Lazio could easily have two wins, but poor finishing and conceding goals from unlikely chances has killed them so far. We'll go 1-1.

SUNDAY

We'll skip over Palace v Wolves, even though that's an important game already to decide who could be mid table and who could be battling relegation. To put it bluntly, neither team scores goals. There were a number of guys at Arsenal they could've bought, but we're looking at a bore fest. Thus, I'll give my takes on Liverpool v Villa and Arsenal v United. Both home teams should boss possession, to be honest, and the away side will want to hit on the break. Who do I trust more defensively? Arsenal. I think the Newcastle game was a bit of a fluke, given Liverpool were down to 10 and Newcastle screwed themselves out of a straightforward win. On the other side, Villa are equally devastating on the break with Diaby. Attack wise, I rate United slightly higher than Villa, which is sensible. I don't trust Watkins in a supposedly top team, but United lack a player like Diaby, which is ironic given Antony is one of the worst signings of late. All that said, the question is this: who do I think is more likely to pull off an upset? Let's put it this way; if Villa play a high line, they won't win. If they sit back, they should walk away with a point (assuming Konate and VVD are out). Arsenal have looked good but not gotten results, and United have been poor while getting away with it. Onana has shown what we saw at Inter, despite the "he's good with his feet" stuff, which is he concedes lots of goals. Liverpool win 2-1, Arsenal and United draw 2-2.

Next we hop over to Spain for a couple games I'll be keeping an eye on. Atleti face Sevilla, and I find that one interesting because Atleti have their swagger back, while Sevilla are bottom of the league after 3 games. That means Sevilla will definitely take something. At least that's tradition. The other game is Osasuna v Barcelona, which is on here because I love the atmosphere of el Sadar, plus Barcelona just won a thriller against Villarreal the other day. Of the two, I legitimately thing Osasuna are the tougher unit to face, but Sevilla have better players. Likewise, I think the gap between Atleti and Barca is not wide.

Frankfurt v Cologne: As I type this, nether club is in the best position. Frankfurt have their best player and main goal threat on the outs, trying to get his move to PSG, while Cologne have yet to gain a point. To be fair, they have played Dortmund and Wolfsburg, with the former in particular nearly a lock for a Champions League spot these days. That said, Cologne will be motivated to right the ship, and if RKM is not playing, Frankfurt will struggle to generate anything in attack. A story line is Ellyes Skhiri facing his old team. My take there is Cologne will struggle big time without their old #6 shielding the defense, taking their usual route of not replacing players they lose. Maybe they won't relegate, but it'll be another subpar season after finishing high two years ago. I'll go Frankfurt 1-0 on a goal from an FCK mistake.

Union v Leipzig: A higher level matchup in Germany features two of the four sides representing the country in Europe's elite competition. The way I expect this to go is Union will try to impose themselves the way they usually play, which is to be compact and explode on the break. In a funny turn of events, I think they'll play better without Brenden Aaronson, a player who has no business playing at this level. Gosens is a huge threat, as he's back doing what he did at Atalanta, which is play with freedom and attack the box from that left flank. Leipzig look good, despite the loss to Leverkusen. I think Xabi Alonso simply had a better plan on the day. Plus, in a game where Leipzig would always have the ball more, Timo Werner starting means playing with 10 men. I would actually go with a back 3 this game, like they should have done against Leverkusen. Have Olmo behind Poulsen/Sesko and Openda, let Henrichs and Raum wreak havoc on Union's defenders, and keep some solidarity at the back with Lukeba, Orban, and Simakan. If that happens, I think it'll be a draw. If Leipzig play with a back four, Union will win by a goal.

Inter v Fiorentina: On the surface, this is a mismatch. Inter have better players and more depth. However, as we dig deeper, Inter playing at home and being the favorite will balance out the dynamic, allowing Fiorentina to soak up pressure and use their talented forwards in space. That alone will present the visitors an opportunity. Granted, in my opinion Inter are better off as a squad than last year, despite reaching the Champions League final. In goal, I'd take Sommer and Audero is a slight improvment over Onana and Handanovic. Again, that may be unpopular, but Onana is mediocre at making saves and Handonovic was finished for two seasons before being surpassed by Onana. A defense of Bastoni -de Vrij - Pavard with Dimarco and Dumfries on the wings is an upgrade, despite Skriniar leaving. Acerbi, Augusto, Bisseck, Cuadrado, and Darmian will be bench options. Getting back to the point, I would expect Fiorentina to run with Kouame, Beltran, Gonzalez as their front three, which is where the threat comes. Maxime Lopez only just joined, plus he's suspended, and Amrabat is waiting to leave as I type, so it's looking like Arthur or Mandragora in midfield. Not terrible, but not impressive. My prediction is a 2-1 Inter win.