Juve 1-1 Milan : Analysis

Lineups

JUVE: Szczesny; Danilo Bonucci Chiellini Alex Sandro; Cuadrado Bentancur Locatelli Rabiot; Dybala Morata

MILAN: Maignan; Theo Romagnoli Kjaer Tomori; Kessie Tonali; Leao Brahim Saelemakers; Rebic

****Prior to watching game****

Looking at these teams, my reaction was not particularly positive. In football, you tend to see one of three things; two teams ready to gun it out, one team will dominate possession while the other sits back, or both will be looking to sit back. The starting XI from both teams would suggest the third option. In terms of system, at least in defense, it could look like a 3-5-2 for both teams. Danilo with the Italian vets in a back three with Cuadrado and Sandro wing backs for Juve, back three of the usual CB's plus Theo and Saelemakers wing backs for Milan. Or, it could be how it appeared on paper, at least on FotMob. I can see the reluctance to be on the front foot for both sides. Juve haven't won yet, having lost to Empoli and drawn with Udinese (obviously the Napoli lost, but they're a good side). Milan on the other hand generally play boring football, so I'm not at all surprised to see this type of lineup. They also just got violated by Liverpool the other day, so you don't want to then get battered by Juve, as bad as they've looked so far.

How the game played out (after watching game)

I initially watched the first 15 minutes, went out, recorded the game, and saw the stoppage time at the end. The early goal, which came from a corner that Milan couldn't get back from after losing the ball, meant the game would go the way it did. That is to say, Milan had more of the ball, did little with it, and Juve sat back for the majority. Just looking at the shot map, Milan only had three shots inside the box (13 total, 4 blocked). Juve had 9 total shots, 4 on target 5 off, and the biggest chance by far was the goal. Outside of that, Kean had a chance at the end.

Here's the after watching full game part.

I'll cover a few themes, as I want to make this into a twitter thread.

One is Milan's switch in formation/system. The early goal skewed the game, in that Allegri is not a coach who goes for the kill, so to speak. They sat in a mid block, didn't press much, and let Milan bring the game to them. Kjaer went off injured at 35 minutes, and Kalulu took the RCB spot with Tomori shifting to the middle. That didn't work, as the right side linkup was non-existent, and there was nobody in the box for Theo to cross to. Juve also didn't allow any real counters, so Milan were completely stifled.

Second half saw that change as Kalulu was given license to go forward, with Saelemakers tucking inside. The obvious issue, so to speak, this game compared to last, was the lack of a target man. If you're going to cross the ball, it helps to have Giroud or Zlatan in there, because otherwise you're giving Chiellini and Bonucci a simple task which they're good at. In the Liverpool game it worked because Milan played on the break. This time it didn't because Juve scored the early goal and sunk deeper and deeper as the game went on. The equalizer came from a corner in the 76th minute. Locatelli lost Rebic who was running from left to right in the box and Tonali found the Croatian's head. Nice finish as well to the far post.

Juventus, to provide balance, did indeed go with the 4-4-2, which could also be viewed as a 4-2-3-1 with Dybala as the #10, since he dropped in a good amount. It's an Allegri lineup, so you can't expect it to be fun or exciting. I also want to address his subs, which were Kean for Morata, Chiesa for Cuadrado, and Kulusevski for Dybala. It's entirely possible that Morata and then Dybala went off injured, which would explain those, but to me all three show why Juve has regressed as a club. I made a tweet comparing Chelsea to Juve, but that's actually doing Chelsea a disservice because they score goals and don't concede, something Juve did when they had by far the best squad in the league. The Milan clubs have caught up, Napoli are close, and Atalanta are still in the mix, not to mention Roma/Fiorentina/Lazio. The best chance in terms of xG (0.20) was Kean in the 86th minute. A ball is headed down to him and he hits it wide first time. Personally, I disagree with the xG model in this case. You can't tell me a first time attempt when the ball is behind him has a higher goal probability than a free header, which is usually given somewhere between 0.05 and 0.20. I know that's a big range, but I don't like how any chance at one's foot is simply assumed to be the same quality, if that makes sense.

My Man of the Match

I was going to do a takeaways section here, but I'll switch it up. One of the cool things about watching a game, instead of looking at these websites like One Football or FotMob that overrate goals and assists, or judging based of stats, is you can go with the eye test. Honorable mention to those who scored and assisted; Morata and Dybala for Juve, Rebic and Tonali for Milan. Also, I think Rabiot is perfect for that role, a mezzala as they say in Italian. Kinda on the wing, kinda in midfield, box to box even.

However, in a game that fit the Italian football narrative, it has to be a defender. I'll go Bonucci over Tomori because I felt he had the biggest impact on the game. When looking at how Juve play, Bonucci is the ball-playing CB while Chiellini is the rugged one. Also, Juve defended more than Milan, which plays a part in my ratings. Bonucci completed the most passes in the entire team (44), with an 88% pass accuracy, as well as 6 duels won, 7 recoveries, 2 interceptions and 1 clearance.