Champions League sides Germany/Spain

Last post like this, for now, at least I think. A number of matchups this weekend (last of August, right before Int'l break) featured teams in the elite competition, so I'll recap a bit of that plus some findings watching teams I didn't necessarily get to look at last season.

Friday games featured Dortmund and Inter. They both won, the latter more convincing than the latter, but both let their opponents score and have a foothold in the game. Dortmund can't defend, simple as that. Witsel at CB instead of DM is a disaster because then you have nobody shielding the defense, plus multiple defenders who aren't defensively sound. I'm not sure what's up with Hummels, and I assume the perpetually injured Zagadou is on the sidelines again, but with that Sancho fee you'd have assumed they'd be smart enough to add another CB. Tomiyasu would've made sense as RB is also an issue, and the Japan international can cover both positions. Could even go with a back three when other CB's are fit, but that's another story. Bellingham is so good, as is my guy Reyna, and it's crazy how young they are. Malen looks wasted to me out on the left, and that comes from the lack of width in that 4-4-2 diamond Rose insists on playing. Hoffenheim weren't great. Inter looked more convincing, but still allowed Verona to score. My take with Inter is they'll once again contend for the scudetto, but it wouldn't shock me if they somehow failed to make the knockouts in the CL again. I will say that Shakhtar under De Zerbi will be a decent matchup for Inter, though I have no idea about Sheriff. In this game, Verona played similar to how they did under Juric, despite EDF now being the coach, and their best chance by far was the goal by Ilic. Outside of that they didn't do much, and Inter created the better of the chances in the match. Correa came on and crushed the host's spirits with a brace. One thing I didn't realize was how tall he is. Him and Dzeko combine to bring the best of what Lukaku does; Correa with the pace and Dzeko with the physicality. Wow. I just realized I wrote about Inter despite this being a non Serie A thing. Oh well.

Bayern and Madrid won against Hertha and Betis, respectively, while Sevilla drew in disappointing fashion with Elche. I'll be honest and admit that I watched about half of each, maybe even more like 20-30 mins of the Sevilla one. I'll start with that, since it's the most "shocking" result of the three. Personally, I'm not at all surprised by this. Elche play ultra negative football, and the lineup Sevilla put out was subpar. No Kounde, Oscar on the wing, Rakitic starting. It was always going to be a pain in the ass. They actually had 18 shots, but only amassed an xG of 1.90, so clearly the quality of each chance was low. Elche actually had 7 shots, which seems like a lot for them, especially since they scored in the 11th minute. Oscar had a good chance early on, En-Nesyri equalized late on in the first half and had an even better chance early in the 2nd, and Rafa Mir had an opportunity to win it in stoppage time, but fluffed his lines. I'm not gonna say this is typical, but it's realistically why Sevilla don't win anything. They sell their best players and have a number of guys past their primes (Rakitic, Fernando, Navas). Madrid's 1-0 win over Betis was... something. In terms of chances, the xG for each was low (Betis 0.59 to Madrid's 0.93). The goal from Carvajal was a low percentage chance that really should've been saved. Actually, that play sums up both of these clubs. Betis probably commit a foul, but it's not called, and then they have a 2v1 which that completely butcher. Madrid go down the other end, ball nearly goes out, and Carvajal sends one into the back of the net. Madrid find ways to win, despite not playing particularly well, while Betis find ways to lose. Worst part about it all is Betis aren't even fun to watch anymore. Thanks Pellegrini. Not worried about Madrid winning the CL anytime soon, unless they get more physical and find an actual goalscorer. Bayern beating Hertha 5-0 is a headline, but who's surprised. The dominant force by a mile and one of the criminal underachievers. Bayern were clinical, as usual, as their xG was 2.96. Hertha, with a double pivot of Ascacibar and Tousart, created little, to the surprise of no one. Bayern's group is doable, for sure. They're superior to Barcelona, and Benfica/Kiev will try their best to challenge the Catalan club for 2nd.

Finally, Sunday saw Atleti and Villarreal draw in a crazy affair, Barcelona got a meh 2-1 win over Getafe, and Wolfsburg beat Leipzig 1-0. I watched the Atleti game nearly in its entirety, so I'll cover that last. The Barcelona game was typical against Getafe, except they actually got an early goal. The host had 2/3 of the ball at Camp Nou, but failed to really do much with it as they were outshot 8-7. Roberto scored in the 2nd minute, a decent finish from around the penalty spot, while Sandro and Memphis canceled each other out with strikes of similar difficulty as the first half continued. My take on Barcelona is this isn't the type of game to judge them on. Getafe are not good. They most likely won't go down, but they won't come close to Europe. Probably like 14th, if I were to project. Barcelona have built a reputation of embarrassing themselves against good teams, so let's see what they do in challenging matches. I briefly skimmed bits of the aforementioned Bundesliga game, so I'll give a brief thought or two. Possession was about even, while Wolfsburg had fewer but higher quality chances. The goal itself probably should've been saved, but you get that all the time in the Bundesliga. Subpar finishing and goalkeeping balanced out by how chaotic the football (pressing) is. My worry, if you can call it that, with Wolfsburg is their group contains teams of a similar level. They seem to play better on the break and pride themselves in defending, but against teams as good or weaker they might have to break them down, especially Lille. The matchup with Sevilla is one I'm keen on, as I'd back Wolfsburg to frustrate the tiki taka style from Lopetegui and hit them on the break. For Leipzig, they won't be expected to advance from a group with City and PSG, so if they do it's a major dub. Getting back to pressing and a more direct style might help them surprise. Lastly, where do I begin with that Atleti game? I guess I'll begin by saying that Atleti were given another dose of their own medicine by a La Liga team. Seems like it'll happen every week now, unless they play one of the other top four sides. Two of the four goals were incredibly dumb, obvious individual mistakes by Gimenez/Savic and Mandi/Rulli. I actually had turned off the game and was about to go out when Trigueros scored, which is freaking typical. Apparently that goal had an xG of 0.07, so it's seemingly a rare Oblak error or a ridiculous finish. Suarez equalized in typical fashion. Overall, Atleti were miles better. 23 shots for an xG of 1.74 means Villarreal corralled them well, plus Atleti were impatient/wasteful. Parejo missing means Villarreal are abysmal, simply put. Nobody should have to witness that lack of creativity in midfield, ever. Prior to the fluky goals today, they hadn't scored, and this included 0-0's against Espanyol and Granada. The same Granada that lost earlier 4-0 to newly promoted Rayo. My take on the CL groups... Villarreal are just there to "have fun", as they finished 7th and only got there due to a penalty shootout win over a poorly coached Man United. Funnily enough, United are in their group, as are Atalanta (and Young Boys). The best way to get something off Atalanta and Man Utd is to park the bus, so I would expect Emery to do that, at least for the away ties. For Atleti, their group is the group of death. I could also see Simeone parking the bus. That makes sense against Liverpool, like in 2019/20, but it's always a risk. I WOULD NOT do that against Porto for sure, and probably Milan. Atleti have better players and it's just asking for some chaos like we saw today to play the cowardly "suffer" ball they played as an up and coming club. Have some balls and take it to them, but don't be super gung ho about it, as that's not Atleti.

Since I've covered damn near every group, given the 9 teams from the two leagues, I might as well get into who I predict (at this point) to advance from each group.

A- City and PSG. No upset for Leipzig.

B- Liverpool and Atleti. Milan and Porto could easily make it, but I'll go with the regulars.

C- Ajax and Dortmund. I hope Sporting advance, but I just don't see it.

D- Madrid and Inter. Like Shakhtar, but they're not at this level.

E- Bayern and Barcelona. Would be funny if Barcelona were in Europa though.

F- United and Villarreal. Just have a bad feeling about this group.

G- This one is pretty even, imo. But I'll go Sevilla and Wolfsburg.

H- Chelsea and Juve. Simple.

I'm most excited for B, G, C, F... A... E, D, H, in that order. Last three I'm not particularly bothered about. Pretty obvious favorites. F is gonna be hyped because of the oil clubs, but I just don't see Leipzig doing anything against them, and Brugge are well... Brugge. C and G should be great fun.