Champions League back-to-back (Oct-Nov '21)

I want to focus on the middle two legs, the back-to-back round of the Champions League. I have a few comments, and I'll either go by league or by group to provide order.

I'll start with England. Given the power shift in recent years, all four are/were expected to advance. My take going in was the favorites were the top 3 in England plus Bayern, and that's yet to change. Man Utd will get through because their group is full of small clubs. It is what it is. City actually have a relatively difficult group, as Brugge are decent, but to be fair Leipzig can't defend and still have issues scoring, while PSG once again have issues with mentality and team construction. Chelsea have one serious team in their group (Juve) and even they've been poor in the league, so not topping the group is a failure. That leaves Liverpool. Like I said, they were one of my favorites from the jump, and that requires advancing from the group, which was always going to happen. Now, my issue here is not that people called it a "group of death". It's more that that was based on history and fanbase than what's actually happens on the pitch. Milan are top of Serie A with Napoli, but if you watch them, you'll know they are rarely impressive game to game, mostly getting by. It's been the case since last season, when they started out just as strong but were average in the second half. Actually, my diagnosis is they all suffer from their league style to CL style. By this I mean Atleti boss games in La Liga, despite the Simeone narrative, and when teams press them and try to score goals they can't handle it. Milan and Porto suffer from that equally, if not more. Aside from the other main two and maybe Braga, Portuguese teams park the bus every week. On the one hand, it's a relief to face teams that'll try to play, but Liverpool are elite, so they'll blow you away.

On to Germany. Might as well start with the team that's advanced and the team that's eliminated. Bayern are predictably through, and in dominant fashion. Barcelona are what they are, and I'll get to them a bit in the Spain section. Benfica are like Porto. Kiev are like any other club from that part of the world, completely outmatched. Leipzig is an odd one. They were good defensively last season but couldn't score. Now they can't do either against good competition. You wouldn't expect them to advance over City or PSG, but you'd hope the games would be a little tighter. Wolfsburg are in a strange spot. They fired their new coach arleady, dropping van Bommel for Kohfeldt. I have no problem with that, actually, and they'll be more "pragmatic" like they were under Glasner. Their group is Europa level; Sevilla (EL kings), Lille without their coach and some players, and Salzburg (Leipzig feeder club). So yeah. That leaves Dortmund. I'm not a huge fan of how Rose has started there, but they're still in a position to advance if they beat Sporting (or draw, given Sporting would then play Ajax and Dortmund Besiktas). Haaland is out, which is obviously a blow, but their defending is nonexistent. Still somehow in a title race until Bayern blow them away.

Spain is next, with five teams to get stuck into. I've said this before, but they'll do well to get 3 or 4 into the round of 16, and maybe one or two of those into the quarters. That's how chaotic the league is right now. Atleti can no longer defend (as of last season), nor can Madrid with Ancelotti at the helm, and Barcelona are just bad. Sevilla and Villarreal are seen as small clubs and act that way in Europe. In terms of the current tables for the respective groups, Atleti will more than likely advance with a win against Porto, while Barcelona are in the same boat against Benfica. Madrid have to not lose against Sheriff and they'll be through. Villarreal face United and then Atalanta, so if they win one of those they'll get through. Sevilla are in a bad spot; two games left against Wolfsburg and Salzburg and they have to win both to control their own destiny. Personally, they're my disappointment so far, as that team now has depth and a decent level of quality to compete on all fronts.

Italy

I wrote a piece on why the league's been struggling, with three components involved. I'll try to be positive here. The positive is if Inter win against Shakhtar and Sheriff don't beat Madrid, they're practically through. Likewise, Juventus took care of their weak group. Now for the strugglers. I'm not sure who's more disappointing right now. I'd say if Atalanta beat Young Boys, Utd beat Villarreal, and then Atalanta lose to Villarreal, that would take the cake. It's not that bad to only get a point against United, but to only get one against THIS Villarreal team is almost inexcusable. Personally, I would've said Villarreal edged the first matchup, so we'll see what happens in Bergamo. Lastly, Milan definitely could've advanced from this group. Barring Liverpool, they're all at a similar level to Milan, and they've just not executed. Technically, Milan can still advance, but they'll have to go to the Wanda and beat Atleti, AND beat a (likely rotated) Liverpool team in the final game. Plus, this is taking into account that Liverpool beat Porto in the 5th fixture, having already qualified as group winner and lacking depth. I'd predict Milan to win at San Siro over Porto going to Anfield and winning, but crazy things happen in this sport.

Final bit

It's interesting to see the contrast between the "haves" and "have nots", so to speak. In past years, I don't think you could narrow down the legit contenders this quickly. You'd have Atleti, Barcelona, Juve, Madrid and maybe others as serious challengers, but they're all quite flawed. I have PSG and United in a tier of their own. The former is constructed poorly and imo don't have the capacity to beat the main four, while the latter is poorly coached and has some issues at key positions. It makes for a more exciting group stage, and I guess the main four could draw each other in the RO16 or quarters, but that would be lame. Special mention for Ajax. They're arguably better than the 2018/19 team, and that's impressive given how that squad was ripped apart. That's one of those situations where they aren't two-faced; they play the same way in league and in Europe, and that continuity works so well in the CL where teams are prideful.