Business end bracket

Europa League and Champions League preview

EL

In some ways, I prefer the Europa League to the Champions League. It is obviously a second rate competition, but it has not been overtaken by oil clubs and creates more of a competitive atmosphere. For example, this season's final eight feature three Italian teams, which is an underrated league in terms of entertainment, arguably the most exciting English team in their legendary manager's final season, a once in a lifetime German side, as well as two traditional institutions in league that produce talent at a high rate. Not to mention last season's Conference League champion, West Ham United.

Benfica vs Marseille

I chose this matchup as the least exciting for me simply because I don't have access to either team's domestic league, unlike literally all the other ties. I would probably list OM as the favorite because their underlying numbers have them just behind PSG, while Benfica recently got destroyed by Porto in an inferior league. There are some interesting players to scout, such as Joao Neves, Antonio Silva, and Quintin Merlin. I suppose this would also be the "dark horse" tie, though it could be argued the following one is, given the hype around Liverpool and Leverkusen this season.

Milan vs Roma

Any of these last three could be number one, based on what you value. However, due to these already facing off at least twice per season in Italy, I've placed it third. I do like that all four teams in this side of the bracket can realistically beat each other, unlike the other side with Liverpool appearing superior to their opponents. My question for Roma is how will they deal with the threat Milan pose on the counter, given De Rossi has opted for a more modern and attacking approach since taking over. We all know that like in the CL group stage, Milan struggle with teams that press high and then sit back in a mid to low block, since the midfield (like most) has issues breaking compact defenses down.

Liverpool vs Atalanta

The problem here is that this is one of the better Liverpool sides we've seen, plus Klopp is on his farewell tour, while Atalanta are decent but not what they were back with Papu Gomez, Ilicic, Muriel, Zapata, and Gosens/Hateboer on the wings. The problem I see is that the squad still has an abundance of 10s, but the defense is still suspect and the attack isn't quite as good. Freuler is gone, Koopmeiners is playing higher up, De Roon has seen his best days, and Scalvini is certainly talented but is more of a 6 or inverted fullback than a dominant CB. They also have an appalling 16 point from 14 league games away from home, and Anfield is not the place to go for shaky teams. Liverpool are Liverpool, and they're coming for everything. I expect this to be a fun game but the reds will advance.

Leverkusen vs West Ham

The main reason this is my number one is it's a last chance saloon situation for West Ham, while Leverkusen look to have their best season ever. The latter are likely to win the Bundesliga, but you can't write Bayern off, while the former are rightly midtable in the Premier League. I worry about Leverkusen and their set piece defending, as well as playing against more physical yet still technically sound opponents outside of Germany. Plus, West Ham play at least three midfielders at any given time, which will outnumber Palacios and Xhaka, though a more direct game from Leverkusen makes sense against a direct West Ham side. It will be a stern test for Xabi Alonso if he wants to coach in England next season, and if they win they'll face a feisty Italian side.

CL

There's a level of amusement for me when these draws happen, because there are some people who are a fan of the fixtures and some who are not. Personally, I don't actually like this draw because it's arguably even more unbalanced than last season's. I say that because Bayern have better personnel now than last season, Arsenal are superior to Benfica, Madrid with Courtois and Militao are just as good as last season, and Atleti/Barca/Dortmund are all worse than the teams on that side from last season (Inter, Napoli, Milan, Chelsea). PSV were by far the worst team left in the Ro16, and it took some horrific mistakes for Dortmund to go through. Anyway, let us dive in to the fixtures this time around. Starting from my least to most anticipated.

Atleti vs Dortmund

To clarify, there is a difference between least anticipated and least exciting. I believe this tie will be interesting; it's just that both teams are significantly flawed and have little to no chance of hoisting the trophy. Dortmund struggle most weeks, which sounds crazy to those who don't watch them, but it is the reality in the Bundesliga. They sit 4th in the league with the 5th most goals and tied 3rd best defense. I believe they have a better squad than Stuttgart and arguably Leipzig, and not far off from and once in a lifetime Leverkusen. Bayern are a different beast, but even they have holes (cough... DM... cough). Atleti are similar in that their defense is what used to be their strength, but it has abandoned Simeone in recent years. Madrid and Athletic Club both have fewer goals conceded, and Atleti are tied with Betis, La Real, Las Palmas, and Valencia with 31 conceded. To be fair, there have been heroic keeper seasons from Valles and to a lesser extent Mamardashvili, but still, this is a Simeone team and they're nearly midtable.

PSG vs Barcelona

Speaking of struggling defenses, compared to the title winning season, Xavi has witnessed more than a goal per game going into his side's net (34 in 28). Like Madrid, their number one (ter Stegen) has been injured, and it's showed in the poor defensive numbers. Barca have underperformed, looking at the underlying numbers, as they still trail Girona and are 8 points back of Madrid. Lewandowski looks a shell of what he once was, which is a why you don't sign strikers late in their careers... PSG are their usual irrelevant selves outside of European competition. They're overperforming in both boxes, which means Donnarumma is finally living up to the hype, at least in Ligue 1. The question is always if the tactics of Luis Enrique will hold up against better competition and if the players can make that same step up. Barcelona handled Napoli, who have suffered the biggest drop off I've seen in a long while. Meanwhile, PSG took advantage of a toothless attacking team in Real Sociedad. As in, even in La Liga they don't score goals and sit 10 points behind 5th place Athletic.

Real Madrid vs Man City

The reason this is not number one is it seems to take place every season. It's a battle of freedom vs rigidity in some ways, which is always interesting. I don't have too much to say about this. City will more than likely win either the Premier League again or repeat in the Champions League, while Madrid will take back the La Liga title in a "race" between an overachiever and some also rans. One curiosity is how Bellingham will impact the game, as well as if the aforementioned Courtois and Militao will be back, though Lunin has been awesome in the goal for Madrid.

Arsenal vs Bayern

Last but not least, this one was a laughing stock a few years back, as Bayern would routinely give it to Arsenal. That was a different era, however. Bayern have been struggling to league titles and have not played particularly well in Europe outside of the fluke 2020 season. Ironically, people talked crap about Liverpool winning the league that year, but nobody seems to mention that Bayern won the CL. Arsenal are legitimately one of the best sides in Europe, and for some reason people want to pretend it's still the "banter era", while Bayern are still the side with Ribery and Robben with prime Lewandowski, Neuer, Muller, Lahm. It's simply not the case. I do think having Tuchel will be and interesting wrinkle, as his knockout tactics usually work. At the same time, other than maybe in goal and at striker, Arsenal have superior players. Specifically, on the wings and in midfield. Musiala is nifty, Kimmich can make a pass, and Pavlovic looks like a nice prospect, but they physically do not match up with this Arsenal side (3 or 4 of Rice, Partey, Jorginho, Odegaard, Havertz). Not to mention the back line, my goodness. Kim is legit, as Napoli had the misfortune to find out once he left, but neither fullback is defensively sound unless Kimmich plays there, and all the CB's have a mistake in them. Compare that to White, Gabriel, Saliba, Tomiyasu, Timber, Zinchenko. The tactical flexibility alone will kill you.