Bundesliga x Serie A Preview

As a follow up to the "projects of 2023/24" article, it felt right to put out a preview for the top leagues starting this weekend. There's often a lack of hype around these two, as well as Ligue 1, but I have access to the former and not the latter. In stark contrast, the same team (FC Bayern) have won the league for the past decade, while in Italy there have been four winners in the same number of years. Coupled with the sheer reality of the discrepancy between Bayern and the rest, German top flight football is about who's "challenging" or finishing top four, as well as the rest of the spots in the table. Serie A could be wide open, but you'll have to wait and see how I envision that campaign going.

Champion/Top 4:

Is there a chance Bayern's reign ends? Yes. Will it? No. Simple. It should have last season, but Dortmund did what Dortmund does and bottled it on the final day. Bellingham left, but the black yellows have more or less replaced him with F. Nmecha and Sabitzer. Bensebaini left Gladbach to replace Guerreiro, which is a like for like. As for Bayern, Neuer is still out and may not come back, so that's far from ideal. They've added the aforementioned Guerreiro, as well as Konrad Laimer, doing the "typical Bayern" in that sense. However, the two big names are Harry Kane and Kim Min-Jae. Obviously, bringing in England's number 9 and Spurs' captain is a massive deal for German football. Bayern clearly missed Lewandowski last season, and Kane is arguably better. Don't underrate Kim though. Came in and led the Scudetto runaway winners Napoli last season, and is an upgrade on Upamecano, who has always been prone to making errors at the back. I still think the Frenchman could be the #6 Bayern lack, but Tuchel is massively overrated as a coach and won't see it. Leipzig are the "dark horse" once again for the title. Unless Gulasci comes back, I don't trust their goalkeepers. But other than that, coach Marco Rose IMO is as good as there is in Germany, and the squad is just as good as last season. Bitshiabu and Lukeba will replace Gvardiol, Baumgartner and Seiwald come in for Laimer, Carvalho and Simons will look to replicate some of the numbers Nkunku put up, and up front Openda and Sesko are clear upgrades to Silva and Sorloth. Rounding out the top four is Leverkusen under Xabi Alonso. Like Leipzig, it took finding a coach who would mold the squad properly to see what the side could achieve last season. They went from bottom half to a Europa League spot. Again, I question the guy(s) between the sticks, which will limit the club's ceiling. On a positive note, Wirtz is hopefully past his injury issues from last season, and there's been continuity in the squad outside of Bakker and Diaby leaving. The latter is obviously a bigger deal. That said, the four CB's are still around at the time of writing this, while the defensive depth has actually been upgraded with Grimaldo replacing Bakker and RWB being bolstered by Arthur. Xhaka is an upgrade on Demirbay, while Jonas Hofmann is a player whose productivity at Gladbach has seemingly gone unnoticed over the years. Boniface is not a like for like style wise for Diaby, but he'll hopefully provide a focal point to a team relying on Schick (injuries) and Azmoun (not good enough) up front.

Challengers/Euro spots:

After Leverkusen, there is a steep drop off squad wise, bringing us to the next clump of teams. I'm including 5 teams here; Frankfurt, Wolfsburg, Freiburg, FC Union, and Gladbach. One team (Frankfurt) is in transition, two (Gladbach, Wolfsburg) have talent but haven't used it lately, while two (Freiburg, Union) are better than the sum of their parts due to top coaching. I wrote about Frankfurt in the other article, but I'll mention a couple things. Frankfurt have a new coach, one player who stands out (Kolo Muani), and a bunch of new guys. That's not a great recipe to start a season well. They're also in the conference league, which explains why the squad is still big. It's not the Europa, so you really can put out your reserves and focus on the league. Larsson and Pacho are the two new guys I'm excited to watch. Moving on to Wolfsburg, they only have the league to worry about, plus Nico Kovac was there last season. This is another team that's dealt with some upheaval, having lost Van de Ven to Spurs and F. Nmecha to Dortmund. Tiago Tomas replaces Marmoush as a forward depth option, behind L. Nmecha and Jonas Wind. Kaminski and Wimmer are still on the wings, backed up by Paredes and Cerny. Vranckx was barely given a chance at Milan and has returned from loan (may leave again though), while Lovro Majer is the money signing in midfield, joining from Rennes. Arnold, Gerhardt, and Svanberg are still at the club as well, which makes for a fun set of players for Kovac to choose from. At the back, Bornauw and Lacroix have been joined by Zesiger and Jenz in the middle, while on the flanks Maehle and Rogerio have been signed from Italian clubs Atalanta and Sassuolo, respectively. I think that's huge, given Paulo Otavio was on the way out for a while, and Ridle Baku (25) seems to have stagnated after breaking through a few seasons ago. What I like about Wolfsburg is they've been bringing guys in who will be ready to contribute right away; mostly in that 23-27 range. Next on the list is Freiburg, who will compete in the Europa League after selling important players, as is tradition. Nils Petersen retired, Kevin Schade and Mark Flekken were sold to Brentford, and Jeong went to Stuttgart. Coming in were Florian Muller in goal to replace Flekken, and Junior Adamu from Salzburg up front, to somewhat replace Petersen and Schade. A couple guys have also been brought up from the second/youth team. I think they're due for a drop off. A team I don't see dropping off is Union. Facing a campaign in the Champions League against the big boys, nobody significant seems to have left the club. They've done some work in the loan market, bring in Brenden Aaronson, Datro Fofana, and Alex Kral from various clubs, all of whom are 25 and under. Schwolow and Tousart come in from Hertha, which is pretty funny after their relegation. Diogo Leite signed permanently, while Gosens and Volland return to Germany after spells abroad. I'm incredibly excited and happy for the club; they're everything that's right about German football. Finally, we round this section out with Gladbach, arguably the underachieving club of the century. Seoane is the coach now, which is a massive upgrade on Farke (not difficult). Bensebaini, Stindl, and Thuram all left for nothing, while Beyer joined Burnley (15m) after his loan spell and Hofmann was sold for 10m to Leverkusen. The more I look at them, the less convinced I am, honestly. Lainer has cancer and I wish him the best, while Kone and Kramer both start the season injured, though they should be back in September according to TM. Cvancara is meant to replace Thuram up front, Wober is a like for like in place of Bensebaini, and Honorat for Hofmann. To me, those are all downgrades and risks, but if those guys all wanted to leave, it's best to let them go, which Gladbach did. I'm also not discounting the fact that last season was horrible for the club, though I believe that's down to the coach and shoddy recruitment over a period of time. If Elvedi and Itakura stay, with Omlin holding it down in goal, they'll at least be hard to beat and pick up points that way, with Cvancara, Plea, and maybe this 20 y/o Ramos from Bayern scoring the goals.

THE REST:

Usually, the bottom three squads (Bochum, Darmstadt & Heidenheim) don't all end up in the relegation places. Augsburg flirt with relegation most years and end up mid table. Koeln are usually crap for a good part of the season but do enough to stick around. Stuttgart won the playoff and were looking good, but now Endo (Stiller to replace?) is gone, while Mavropanos and Sosa may be next. Hoffenheim have been underachieving since Nagelsmann left, while Mainz are a mainstay in the league. That leaves Bremen and Bochum, plus the promoted sides. Bremen do have some quality, mainly Niclas Fuellkrug. After that, Keita at CM if he's ever fit, plus the quintet at the back of Friedl, Pieper, Velkovic, Stark, and Weiser. Toss in Pavlenka in goal, who's not good but certainly not the worst in the league, and that's enough to stay up. Bochum have some journeymen, but they stayed up last season, so why not this one? What I will say about Darmstadt and Heidenheim is they have continuity of leadership, with Lieberknecht entering into his 3rd season, while Schmidt was hired in 2007!!! That's wild, actually. He literally retired, became assistant, and then was promoted to head coach 2.5 months later. Also, Lieberknecht was at Braunschweig for 10 years, so he's not afraid of longevity, either.

THE TITLE RACE

Well, last season there wasn't one. Napoli were far and away the best team, and the next best side suffered a points deduction. The prior season, Milan snatched the Scudetto away from Inter, who'd won the previous season after the reign of Juventus came to an end. This isn't even taking account for Lazio, who were the best defensive team in the league under Sarri. Player for player, taking account for coaching style, I view the three contenders as Napoli, Inter, and Milan. Napoli is self-explanatory. Kim left, but Kvara and Osimhen stayed. Natan is in at CB, while Cajuste joined in midfield. I don't like Rudi Garcia at all, but at the same time, it's not like any of the other coaches of the best squads are amazing, either. I'd personally rank them Inzaghi, Pioli, Allegri, Garcia, but that's me. I didn't include Juve because they aren't any better than last season, and unless something drastic happens, they still play that garbage 1-0 style, which outdated. Milan lost Tonali but brought in Loftus-Cheek, Musah, and Reijnders. Zlatan wasn't doing anything anyway, but Okafor comes in up front, plus Giroud is still there. Chukwueze is an upgrade over Messias for me, as well as Saelemakers, while Pulisic is IMO superior to Brahim Diaz, though that may be controversial. Anyway, the back four plus Maignan is still intact, and this is a team that finished top four and reached the CL semis. Speaking of the CL, Inter reached the final, though they did lose Brozovic and Onana. I don't think those two can be quantified, specifically the Croatian. Skriniar leaving for PSG doesn't help either, but Arnautovic and Thuram come in to replace Dzeko and Lukaku for relatively little in terms of fees, both of whom had their clear weaknesses. Lautaro is still around, even if I don't rate him. Barella and Bastoni are the important pieces, plus Dimarco and Dumfries are the incumbent wingbacks in the system Inzaghi implements. Cuadrado is also a big one, joining from Juve to provide competition for Dumfries at RWB.

Challengers and European Spots

I spoke of Juventus some above, but the reality is that club mortgaged its future on Ronaldo doing something magical and it didn't happen. It's that simple. Pogba has never hit his heights and is getting old, the old core was never replaced properly, the 70m euro rated striker is being played in a system that doesn't suit him, and playing to win 1-0 doesn't work anymore. With Lazio, the big adjustment is Milinkovic-Savic is no longer there. Apparently Lloris is coming to compete with Provedel in goal, with is far from inspiring. Casale and Romagnoli formed an awesome partnership at CB last season, but there's really no proven backup, should anything happen. There are 5 guys for 2 positions at fullback, as Luca Pellegrini joins Fares, Hysaj, Lazzari, and Marusic. The trio of Marcos Antonio, Rovella, and Vecino are supposed to replace the outgoing SMS. Really the first two, because Vecino is garbage, but hey. Kamada on a Bosman is awesome for Lazio, given what he was able to do at Frankfurt, plus they won't have to rely on Luis Alberto as much. I've never watched Isaksen, so can't comment there, by Taty Castellanos will provide much needed support for Ciro Immobile in the goal scoring department. Zaccagni is the big name winger these days, plus vets in Pedro and Felipe Anderson provide winger depth. Solid squad, don't think they challenge though. Over to cross-town rivals, Roma. They lost the Europa final and are doomed to play the same competition, so that's a knock for Mourinho. They have mediocre keepers, and that will cost them. Ndicka coming in is huge as it gives Roma a natural left sided CB, which was part of the reason the likes of Ibanez looked goofy at times. Kumbulla tore his ACL, which sucks, but there's depth with D. Llorente coming back, as he joins Mancini and Smalling. Left back/LWB is a bit sketchy, as only Spinazzola is natural there, and he suffered that injury which cost him nearly a year. There are 3 RB/RWB profiles in Celik, Karsdorp, and Kristensen, though I'm surprised Karsdorp is still there with his perceived attitude issues. PSG helped out in midfield, sending Renato Sanches and returning Leandro Paredes to the capital. Honestly, Paredes is another one of those players who would've been good in a different era. He's not great defensively and is slow, so yeah. Sanches is quality and turned 26 today, but he's like a lesser Pogba, image wise. That's a diss, lol. Aouar has all that hype and ended up moving for nothing. I'm sensing a pattern at Roma. Bove and Zalewski are both 21 and get game time, but the latter is usually played out of position, due to the competition and lack of left-sided players. Abraham is injured for months, so Dybala will have to carry the attack, receiving help from captain Pellegrini attacking the box from midfield. That was a lot. Style wise, they're a bit too Juve to make the jump. Next is Atalanta, who I'm hoping will be the team to watch once again after a mediocre season. I'll keep it short, since I spoke about the Bergamo side in my other article. Hojlund has been sold to United for a massive fee, Maehle left for Wolfsburg, and Demiral is on his way to Saudi. Most of my excitement is seeing Scamacca hopefully enjoy is football again, El Bilal Touré in a team that's not just been promoted with more around him, and De Ketelaere finally allowed to express himself in Italian football. There's also this Cambiaghi guy coming back from Empoli; maybe they expect him to fill the void Boga left. Lastly, Fiorentina. They've been quite active on the market. Arthur Cabral and Igor were the two big sales, though Beltran is arguably better than Cabral already, so there's some irony that Benfica didn't just go for the Argentine. Amrabat is still at the club as I type this, though both Liverpool and Man Utd have been linked. Like Roma, Fiorentina lost a Euro final, the conference league. With Juve ditching Europe entirely after the points deduction, the Viola will unfortunately be tasked with the same tournament this season. However, with a big squad, they'll be able to rotate. Parisi (Empoli) and Mina (Everton) join a back line still featuring Milenkovic, Martinez Quarta, and Dodo, which is pretty solid. Castrovilli was meant to join Bournemouth, but that didn't happen and they got Alex Scott instead, which is awkward. Nico Gonzalaez is the man up front, but he has support in Jovic, Ikone, Brekalo, Kouame, Sottil, and now Nzola (joined from Spezia). Lots of options for a fun coach in Italiano. Not good enough to challenge for CL though.

Other teams, with players to watch

Torino- Schuurs, Illic, Ricci, Vlasic

Sassuolo- Lauriente, Pinamonti, Berardi, Lopez

Bologna- Lucumi, Posch, Dominguez, Orsolini, Ferguson

Udinese- Beto, Brenner, Samardzic, Perez

Empoli- Baldanzi; #35, AM, 20 y/o. Caprile, a 21 y/o GK on loan from Napoli.

Monza- Di Gregorio (GK), Pessina, any of the guys called Carboni

Salernitana- Dia, easily best player, #10. Lovato, Pirola, Daniluc; young CB's.

Genoa- Coach Gilardino, Retegui (CF), Dragusin and De Winter (CB)

Relegation

Verona - weird mix of old guard plus random new guys. Doig, Hein, Montipo, Coppola

Lecce - Hjulmand gone, D'Aversa coach. Not great. Maleh, Falcone, Strafezza, Joan G.

Cagliari - largely the same guys as when relegated. Nandez, Eldor, Luvumbo, Zappa

Frosinone - loan keeper Turati, couple other Sassuolo guys...