The Slovenian Wall

With 2019/20 Serie A season back under way, preceded by the thrilling conclusion of the Coppa Italia which saw Napoli lift the trophy, I decided to take on another team in the world of Calcio, Football Club Internazionale Milano, the team Napoli beat in the semi's of this year's cup. This is an introduction to a deeper analysis of the club, outlining the changes Antonio Conte has made and what needs to be addressed before the side is able to overtake Juventus for the title, as well as find European success once again.

The most important in any squad is the goalkeeper. Samir Handanovic has been at Inter since 2012 and is close to reaching the 300 appearance mark. Sadly, he's 35 (36 in July), and like any athlete, the body starts to deteriorate, and as a goalkeeper it can lead to a quick descent from the top tier. I will explain what the Slovenian brings to the table and narrow down the list of potential successors to wear the number 1 shirt at Inter. A number of the candidates are based in Serie A, and I included some intriguing young keepers from Ligue 1, as well as one from Spain.

The statistics in my analysis (from fbref/statsbomb) are 1) save percentage, 2) post shot expected goals per shot on target, and 3) post shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes. Save percentage is self-explanatory, as it's the ratio of saves minus goals conceded, divided by saves made. The problem with using save percentage alone is it doesn't take into account they type of shot, what type of defensive scheme the keeper is having to cover, and the quality of defenders. As an example, in Serie A this season, the top three keepers for save percentage play for three of the top four teams in terms of goals against (Lazio, Juventus, and Hellas Verona). The other team is Inter, though Handanovic is 7th in save percentage. To provide some balance, I included PSxG/SoT. Simply put, this measures the likelihood a given shot that is on target (excluding penalty kicks) has of resulting in a goal. Therefore, a higher number means the keeper's task is more difficult. The accompanying statistic, then, is PSxG+/- (per 90). This one does include penalty kicks, and it measures expected goals conceded for shots on target versus actual goals conceded. A positive number indicates the GK is stopping more shots than he would be expected to, statistically, which is a good thing.

Players included in the analysis were mainly from Serie A. Handanovic (self-explanatory) and Radu are owned by Inter, though Radu is on loan at Parma as the backup to Sepe. Joronen is at Brescia, the worst team in the league along with SPAL, but his performances have been decent. Gabriel and Musso are also at teams lower down in the table, but their numbers stood out, so I included them. Szczesny is currently the best in Serie A in multiple categories, but playing on the best team helps. In the top five leagues leader board I spotted a few guys from the French league that stood out, so I included two here (Benitez from Nice and Larsonneur from Brest). Finally, I included Unai Simon, Kepa Arrizabalaga's replacement at Athletic Club, as his overall outlook fit the profile for what I was looking for in a Handanovic successor.

Handanovic came from Udinese, who at that point were a decent side (think Antonio di Natale and Alexis Sanchez days). The trajectory for a goalkeeper can be all over the place. Some peak young, while others don't find consistency until their mid 30's. Three of the players included are under 25 (Larsonneur, Radu, and Simon), which means there's higher upside if the player is put in the right situation, but it's also more likely the consistency will not be there from the beginning. Benitez, Joronen, Rafael and Sepe are all in the 27-30 range, which means they should be reaching that consistent stage in their careers. Musso is in between these two categories, and the Juventus keeper is simply included for comparison purposes. It depends what Inter decide to do with Handanovic. His contract ends in 2021. A Buffon situation could occur, with the Slovenian renewing for a year or two to ease the transition of his successor, whilst being phased into the backup role before eventually retiring. Guys like this are invaluable to the dressing room, especially when a new manager comes in and there's turnover within the squad. His season has been below par compared to his amazing years in his stay at Inter, both statistically and from the eye test, so he's above average rather than being "world class". This is expected, however, as he is aging, just like Buffon when he returned went to PSG and returned to Juve.

The other guys: I like the look of Walter Benitez, mostly with his physique and some of his statistics, but he's playing in France, a less "competitive" league, and I was unsettled with his lack of command in a number of clips I watched on Instat. I would like to see him do it at a higher level, either in European competition or at a mid-table La Liga/ Serie A club. The same can be said about Larsonneur. His main weakness is height, as he's listed at 5'11". Without knowing his stature beforehand, it was obvious that he looked small for a keeper as soon as he appeared on my screen. Compare that to the 6'5" Handanovic. Radu is young still, so a cheap option would be to sign someone like Sepe, leave Radu on loan at Parma as the #1 for a couple seasons, and see how he develops. Radu's worryingly the only one in the selected group that's allowing more goals than his post shot xG would suggest. Part of this is he's the backup, so his minutes are not as high, thus any goals he does concede are influential to his statistics. Joronen and Rafael are not particularly young, plus it's always a gamble taking the massive step up from a relegation battling club to one that's looking to win silverware.

Combining stats with what I see on the pitch, my choice would be one of two players. The first one would expensive, but worth it, which is Unai Simon. He signed a contract in 2019 that increased his release clause to 50m euros. This is a hefty fee, especially now, but Athletic Club have a small pool of players to bring into the first team, those born/trained in the Basque Country, so they don't sell for cheap. Juan Musso is the second choice after Simon. The Argentine already plays in Serie A, is only 26, same height as Simon (6'3"), and would probably cost half of what Inter would have to pay for Simon. The significant statistical advantage Simon has over Musso is PSxG+/-. There is the argument, however, that Athletic have a better defense than Udinese, as evidenced by their defensive numbers and positions in their respective leagues (+7 GD and fighting for Europe, versus -16 GD and 3 points above 18th). Inter have other areas that need to be addressed, so it would be sensible if they invested a smaller amount in Musso, while spreading funds elsewhere (specifically wing back), despite Simon being younger and having more impressive statistics.