Napoli manager discussion

I got this idea from the CalcioLand podcast. Best way I can describe it to those that don't follow Napoli is Gattuso falls into the "normal" ex-player turned coach category, rather than the Pep or Zidane one. That is to say, the most he'll realistically win is the league cup, which Napoli did last season. I'm not saying that's something to be ashamed of, given the great football Sarri had them playing led to a total of zero trophies. The point is, however, Ancelotti and now Gattuso have failed to build on or maintain consistency with the team Benitez and then Sarri created. That squad should at worst be third in the league behind Inter and Juve, given it's better than all of Milan, Roma, Atalanta and Lazio (the other 4 teams fighting for two top four spots). From the pod, two names I initially thought of as soon as they started talking about a new manager were Roberto De Zerbi and Ivan Juric. There was a third included, Italiano, but I don't watch Spezia often and think there's an intermediate step up between that situation and a Europa at worst club.

One of the issues I've noticed at Napoli, and something they've discussed regularly on the pod in regards to Gattuso, is the style, which has strayed drastically from Sarri. This is what I was saying with the Pep comment. Despite the money spent and top players he's always had access to, it's undeniable that Guardiola teams play incredible football. Sarri was all about the vertical tiki-taka football, which is pleasing on the eye as well. It requires quick movement and passing, as well as a high press. You keep the ball, not for the sake of keeping it, but to progress up the pitch, and when you lose it you win it back quickly as it's obviously more dangerous attacking before the opponent is set defensively. Gattuso, however, has made the team into a sit deep and counter side, which contradicts what many players in the squad are used to. The problem with this is if you try to sit deep, and the other team sits deep, one of you will have to budge. It's fine against Juve and the top sides, but against most of the league you get the inconsistent results Napoli have had since Gattuso joined.

Since I've just mentioned the squad, I'll now cover that, before going on to discuss the coaching options. There's a split in the squad, those that were there with Sarri and those that came in after. Also, Gattuso and his counter-attacking suits the 4-2-3-1, while Sarri was more 4-3-3 while at Napoli (4-3-1-2 at Empoli, but that's back in the day).

Sarri players: Insigne, Mertens, Koulibaly, Hysaj, Ghoulam, Zielinski, Maksimovic, Rui

Post-Sarri: Osimhen, Fabian, Lozano, Meret, Ospina, Manolas, Bakayoko (L), Politano, Di Lorenzo, Elmas, Petagna, Demme, Lobotka, Rrahmani

As you can see, most of the team actually came in once Sarri left. I'll give my opinion of who I think needs to leave, since that's kinda relevant given it's my article. This could change, obviously given the coach that takes over. However, Ghoulam and Hysaj are two that 100% need to go. They should've gone a while ago, like as soon as Sarri left, or maybe the next season, but the fact that they're still there is mad. I'd add Rui, but it's not like there's a plethora of solid LB's on the market, so keep him as a backup.

One thing to mention as well is the players to build around. The most obvious one is Osimhen, given the price they paid to get him. Next would be Insigne and Koulibaly, the captain and vice captain. The former is doing well as usual on the left (occasionally at #10), while latter was up there with van Dijk as the best CB in Europe before last season, when he declined for various reasons (injury, coaching changes, lost form). We then have Fabian, who was killing it when he first arrived but this season's been stop start. I think that's largely down to the style change, as Ancelotti had the team playing more or less like Sarri, and he's a possession based, press-resistant typical Spanish CM. Zielinski also plays at CM, but he's usually more attack-minded than Fabian. Lozano plays on the wing as well, on the right currently because Insigne is on the left. Di Lorenzo is the starting full back on the right, and I think he's good enough to keep his spot going forward.

I wrote about Juric before, so I'll start with him. He already has one of his old boys at the club, in Rrahmani, so that's a start. His usual system is the 3-4-3, or 3-4-2-1, depending on how you type/write it. Regarding the point I was making on Gattuso vs Sarri, Juric is definitely more on the Gattuso side. That said, currently Napoli actually hold 57% of the ball this season (3rd in the league), contrast that to Verona at 47.7%, which is 14th. I know expected points is based on xG, which is flawed, but it's maybe worth noting that Napoli "should" be 2nd right now behind Juve, while in that model Verona and Sassuolo are at the top of the bottom half, despite sitting 9th and 8th IRL. This is despite the stylistic difference, and IMO Sassuolo having better talent. Juric is a defense first guy, which is necessary given the lack of talent in the squad, outside of Zaccagni. Here's how I reckon Napoli would look with Juric in charge. Personally, in a back three, to me at least, it's vital to have at least one left footed player in it, as opposed to a back four where it's not as serious, since you have a left back who's usually left footed.

Unless I'm missing something, Napoli currently do not have one, so with Juric that would be a signing to make, amongst others. He's been playing Dimarco of late at LCB, with Lazovic at LWB, so you see what I mean.

Meret; left-footed CB, Koulibaly, Manolas; Rui (or new LWB), Fabian, Demme/Lobotka, Di Lorenzo; Insigne, Zielinski/Lozano; Osimhen.

Ideally, as I alluded to above, there would be a new LWB as well as that left-sided CB. Lazovic would be an easy shout, but I'll include a couple others later.

I was curious if I was missing some stuff tactically, and actually found this nice video in Italian explaining it in more depth than I did in my article.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1XLy4fj9MQ

Basically, it's about verticality, and to find that verticality the three forward most players interchange and find space out wide, allowing the wing backs to get forward to support the holding midfielder and CB's when the look to advance the ball from the back. To me, looking at the turnover from the squad, it's impressive that the team is as good as last season. In particular, I'm looking at Dawidowicz coming in for Kumbulla, Amrabat leaving and not being replaced really, unless you count Tameze, who's not really the same type of player, and Pessina returning to Atalanta from his loan, replaced by Barak. Ivan Ilic, one of the City Football Group prospects, is on loan, and he's actually been getting good minutes in central midfield, which I think on the one had shows his talent, while at the same time showing the lack of options Juric has this season. Speaking of that, I realized after typing that last sentence that Miguel Veloso, the captain and one of the key guys last season, has been out since Jan 6th, so that explains it. Special mention for Marco Silvestri in goal as well, who's not been lauded enough for his performances since Verona were promoted. As with any team that plays with wing backs, they're crucial to the team's success, and they tend play the most minutes along with the keeper.

In that video there's a stat from last season showing that they attack predominantly out wide, specifically down the left with Lazovic and Zaccagni, but their shots mostly come centrally, which would mean the ball consistently comes from out wide to the middle via crosses, cut backs, and through balls.

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To drastically switch gears, we'll now discuss De Zerbi and how I think things would go with him. He's had Sassuolo "over-performing" as it were for a while now. As I said, he's an attacking guru, which kinda means his defense will suffer. It's a misconception that Sarri teams aren't good defensively, but that's largely due to personnel. It's a risk whoever you pick if he's coming from a "lesser" club, because the flaws can either be down to simply worse players, or it could be a system issue.

His system relies on short passing, and they don't go long. It reminds me of Man City in that you tend to see the wingers provide the width, while the full backs stay further back. It's more like a 4-4-2 in that the two in the "pivot" stay close together, the number 10 supports the striker, and as I said, the wingers get really wide. Closer to the box, one of the CM's stays back while the other goes forward, providing options for the wingers who look to cut in (Berardi and Boga, usually). The problem, or risk is maybe a more accurate word, is that playing out from the back with "lower quality" players than a team like Man City is when it doesn't work, the other team will probably score. Whether it's losing the ball building up from the back, or just getting overrun when committing numbers forward, it's why there's a limit for a team like Sassuolo. The numbers bear this out. Looking at Atalanta, the best comparison, they have a nearly 20 GD, while Sassuolo is at 2. Verona, the other team I'm comparing in this piece, is at 0, but like I said their players are worse on the whole.

With De Zerbi, I see Napoli lining up like this:

Ospina; new LB, Koulibaly, Manolas, Di Lorenzo; Fabian Zielinski/Demme; Lozano/Insigne Insigne/Zielinski Politano/Lozano; Osimhen/Petagna.

The squad, not gonna lie, is more set up for De Zerbi, now that I lay it out that way. Even depth wise it's much better, when you consider they need a left back to improve on Rui either way, and they're already playing 4-2-3-1 with plenty of depth despite numerous absences at times. I put so many / there to illustrate the depth. Ospina over Meret because of the style of football, which at this point Ospina is better at. This is still leaving out Mertens, who I'd probably have behind the striker if he's fit, depending on how he ages. Also, there's Lobotka, possibly Bakayoko (if they buy him after the loan), Rrahmani and Maksimovic at CB, and Elmas who can play anywhere on that line of 3 behind the striker.

Time to give my thoughts on the situation. It depends on what Napoli want to aspire to as a club. Gattuso, for me, will stay to the end of the season, and then they make that decision. I could see both of these coaches joining in the summer, unless a better offer comes along of course. It's a question of who you trust to implement his vision better on the squad, and how much reign the owner will give the coach to attempt that feat. This is a bit rhetorical, I suppose, but is it more feasible for a coach to become better at attacking or defending? One is clearly good with one, while the other is proven with the other. Personally, I think a lot of defending comes down to personnel, and attacking is more of a philosophy that you have or you don't. If it's about who's doing better with what they have, it's Juric. But as I said, you already have a coach at Napoli who struggles coaching attackers, so why take the more defensive of the two options? Oh, and the other thing to consider, as I alluded to way earlier, is who would better suit the top players. I look at Osimhen and think how can a coach get the best of him? I realize the guys Juric has had up top haven't been good, but at the same time Berardi and Boga have been amazing for De Zerbi, and he's got Caputo scoring 20+ goals in a season. I actually think Juric would be a better fit for a team like Roma, or even Inter if/when Conte leaves. I mention Inter because he was an assistant there earlier in his coaching days. Even then though, I think there's a limit to how a system like that can work, and how high a level of players will buy into a system like that.

I highly doubt either would happen, but two coaches I'd like to randomly show up in Naples to coach this team are Graham Potter and Pellegrino Matarazzo. I doubt the former speaks Italian, so that would be an issue. Matarazzo, despite coaching in Germany and growing up in the states, did play (I say that loosely) in Italy for a bit, so he should know the language. He also was a Napoli fan club member as a kid, according to his wiki, so it's fate. But yeah, I look at both of those as being more balanced than the two I've mentioned. Potter is a bit of a basket case because his team is letting him down. That's not just saying it, it literally is the case, as it's backed up in the stats. It's one thing for, say Roy Hodgson or someone to say his players are letting him down, but let's be real, the football he plays is horrible and they deserve to be where they are, if not lower. That, I feel, is a situation where the coach almost surely will get better results with better players. Matarazzo is much the same, looking at the stats. That's easily explained by saying that it's a young squad, and they've just been promoted.