How Atleti can beat Chelsea

This is one that I'm just going off the cuff with. I'm well aware that most people, even those that claim to be "football experts" don't watch this club. For those who don't know, the team has been in mediocre (at best) form for 7 games, which coincides with the Kieran Tripper ban. The only convincing win in that period was against Valencia, and I've already written about how much of a circus that club is. There were two close wins against Eibar and Granada, which is normal in a long season. Last week was a back-to-back with Levante, one point from six. It wasn't that bad, especially the second game, and I reckon that's regression to the mean for Atleti. Cadiz would appear to have been an easy opponent, but the 4-1 win easily could have been dropped points because at 1-0 there should have been a penalty. Cadiz literally played the same way against Atleti as they did the other day against Barcelona and got a 1-1 draw.

In terms of the squad for the Chelsea game, it's underwhelming. A few youth players are included, so I'll mostly list the senior guys. Oblak; Lodi, Hermoso, Savic, Felipe, Ricard; Kondogbia, Torreira, Saul, Koke, Llorente, Lemar, Vitolo; Felix, Suarez, Correa, Dembele.

Given the usual system, Carrasco is a miss at LWB in front of Hermoso, but the right side is even more exposed. If you move Llorente out wide, because it'll either be that or throw Ricard back in, you lose his dynamism in midfield. Thus, I think you have to go with at least one of Lemar and Kondogbia in there.

I expect Chelsea to continue with the 3-5-2 they've been running, which is kinda silly to me, but hey, this is an Atleti article. Their lineup will likely be Mendy; two of Christensen/Rudiger/Zouma + Azpilicueta; Alonso/Chilwell, Kovacic, Jorginho/Kante, Mount, Hudson-Odoi/James; Werner, Abraham/Giroud

Lots of depth at the moment in that squad, hence the options I've listed. I said this before, but I find it odd that certain areas of the team are overstocked, while others are weak. Mainly CB in terms of the weak areas, and maybe GK despite Mendy having been brought in, and I'd even add striker in that none of the three are elite enough to carry a team like Haaland or Lewandowski, for instance. I'd have said Suarez there, but even he's not at that level anymore. I've also discussed at times the midfield imbalance, which you see even more now. I really like Mount, and now that Lampard isn't there it's even clearer that he's a good footballer. When I speak of imbalance, I'm referring to the fact that Kovacic and Mount start, and then there's one of Jorginho and Kante. With the style Tuchel has them playing, possession and quick counter-pressing, Kante is better off the ball, while Jorginho is better on it. I also think the balance is thrown off in the entire side by playing three CB's, especially if James is the RWB. It's one thing for it to be the 4-4-2 hybrid with one of the fullbacks (Azpi) tucking in, but if you then have another fullback providing the width, it's just a bit too defensive. I haven't even mentioned that there aren't proper wingers in the current system, despite them being available (CHO, Ziyech, Pulisic when fit). Anyway, this brings me on to Atleti.

As I was alluding to above, Chelsea at this point lack balance. I'll now explain how I'd set up from a personnel standpoint and tactically. In a piece I did last week, I noted how overrun the Spanish teams and Juventus were in their first legs. Tuchel going with a back three automatically limits the amount of athleticism going forward, and they'll be looking to possess the ball anyway. This to me means you want as much athleticism in the lineup as possible, an the obvious set up in my mind is to go retro Simeone ball and sit back so you can hit them on the break. Especially if it's that midfield of Jorginho-Kovacic. If Kante is in there, you'll probably have a bit more of the ball, just because those two differ in style. You obviously wouldn't know which of the two will start in the build up to the game, so there are a couple options. At this point, Ricard isn't trusted in the RWB role, so you're pretty much stuck with Llorente out there. Ideally, you have him in the midfield, but needs must. Thus, you have LWB to figure out. The options are Lodi or Saul, pretty much. Assuming one of Correa/Felix is starting with Suarez up front, it's down to whether you want Saul in midfield or out wide. Personally, I'm not one for "square pegs, round holes", so I'd have him in the midfield. That then means Lodi starts out wide, and you have Saul + two of Koke/Kondogbia/Lemar in midfield. Personally, I'd drop Lemar to the bench and go with the first two. Reason being, knowing Chelsea want to possess the ball and counter-press, you return to the "underdog" mentality. It's not a 4-4-2 low block necessarily, due to the lack of a right back, but Llorente can fill in well enough. Lodi is faster than Saul, and Saul is better defensively than Lemar, knowing the pace that CHO/James will provide on their right wing. Kondogbia is the Kante of Atleti, sweeping up behind the more technical Koke and aforementioned Saul, who will provide the passes to spring on the counter, or build up when possessing the ball for longer periods. Given the lack of mobility in Suarez, you won't see the team play quite as deep as the old days, but I see no reason to not take advantage of what Chelsea will try to do. A 1-0 win at home, or even a 0-0, is a good result, especially given the lack of options and poor form. Get personnel back for the second leg, regain some form, and then try to play better football.

Think of the tie against Liverpool last season. That Atleti team was worse than this season's, and Liverpool then were better than this Chelsea. I liken it to Liverpool struggling in the league due to injuries, but still getting the job done in Europe. They're forced to break down teams that only come to defend, like Atleti have faced of late, and teams in Europe open up for them, which allows them to counter. When I look at Chelsea, if I'm Tuchel, especially in this first leg, I'd be changing MY style and forcing Atleti to break US down. I predict it to be the opposite, as I've said prior.

I'm perfectly open to being proven wrong here, and I actually prefer Chelsea to win this matchup. For one, I hate watching Atleti in Europe because they inevitably revert to the old style at one point or another, and if they're eliminated, they'll only have the league to focus on. That said, both Barcelona and Madrid (especially Barcelona) could find themselves eliminated in this round as well, and let's not forget Sevilla, who lost 3-2 to Dortmund at home. I mention Sevilla because with a win tonight, they'd be only 7 points behind Atleti (ahead of Barcelona), having played the same number of games. That said, this is an Atleti post, so we want them to win.

In terms of statistics, since some like that kind of thing, I looked up PPDA since Tuchel took over. Chelsea are first in the league, higher than Leeds, since mid-January, which I think is when he took over. This supports what I was saying about their style, and Atleti can exploit that by letting them have the ball, and with some press resistant players they can bypass the midfield and attack Chelsea's weak defense. Not to mention the goalkeeper situation. I don't rate Mendy either, and Kepa is not as bad as he's made out. It's somewhat down to technical flaws, but it's also having a bunch of clowns in defense and Kante not at his best, meaning the midfield is easy to bypass. Oblak has looked poor of late, and that's due to the expansive football now that teams are sitting back against Atleti.

It's also the main reason xG is a flawed stat. Imagine saying that all these shots have the same likelihood of going in, regardless of who's defending and how much pressure the keeper is under. I've seen "big chances" in the xG chart when a guy unknowingly deflects a ball out of play, or a ball smashed at someone's head in the box that glances off. Compare that to 2v1 chances on the break, which are incredibly common when team's overcommit. Case in point is any Brighton game this season, where they build slowly, let the other team set their defense, and have tons of shots that are low quality or simply blocked. Then, on the other end, their keeper is mediocre and defenders are Championship standard, plus they commit numbers forward, so it's easy to score against them.