The priceless game

I've just published an article on the teams that dropped down to the Championship for the 2020/21 season. I'll reserve judgment on Leeds and West Brom until I've seen the squads they'll be taking into the upcoming season. They were the two top teams all season, though WBA did their best to let Brentford and Fulham overtake them at the end. Now it's time to address the future of the two teams involved in the playoff final.

The game itself: pretty drab, for lack of a better word. The 90 minutes were horrible. I nearly fell asleep at the end of the first half. Proof that I’m not talking crap is the xG numbers, which at full time were 0.36-0.51. Premise of the game was Fulham set up to nullify the Brentford attack. This is a personal opinion of Fulham, having watched the tie against Swansea plus a few random games during the season… On paper, Fulham had the best squad in the Championship. Looking once again at the data, this time actual goals, the disparity in goal difference between Fulham and the three teams that finished above them is somewhat shocking, given my take on the strength of the squad at Scott Parker’s disposal. For context, Brentford and Leeds were +42, West Brom were +32, and Fulham were +16. Even in the final, the first Fulham goal was audacious and had a low probability of actually working out. The second goal obviously was a higher percentage chance, but that was a result of Brentford selling out to try and equalize. The point is, despite eventually gaining promotion, which was the goal, I’m not at all impressed with the way Fulham play. I also know I’m not talking nonsense because I listen to at least two podcasts that cover Fulham at least part time, and both have been critical of the style of play. It reminds me a bit of Norwich last season in that the players are quite good at Championship level, but in all likelihood are not talented enough to thrive at the next level. They conceded the most out of the top 4 and scored the least, while the teams below were mediocre. I mean, watching Cardiff, they could barely pass the ball to each other, even in their own half.

What it means for each side: I’ll start with the loser. My immediate analysis of the situation is things will likely go one of two ways for this team. They’re accustomed to selling players each summer for a profit, and this one will be no different, with star attackers Benrahma and Watkins almost certainly set to move to the Premier League. For me, there’s a dichotomy of clubs that are forced to sell their best players just to maintain, and those that have money and are able to push their way up whatever set up they’re in, eventually winning trophies. Brentford is an example of the former. I’m not sure what impact the new stadium will have on finances, so that’s another factor to consider. My guess is the on-pitch results will regress next season, due to both selling their best players and the mental devastation that comes from losing a final you really “should” have won. I’d be intrigued to know how often a team loses a playoff final and bounces back the next year to achieve promotion. On the other hand, in the past 10 years there are at least two examples of teams losing the Champions League final and winning it the following season (Bayern and Liverpool). The thing with those teams, however, is that it’s a completely different level. The teams I mentioned maintained their squads, or even added quality to them. The Brentford model will be tested. Players I was most impressed with in the final 5 games of the season were Henry, Jansen, Pinnock and Raya (despite the horrible positioning for that free kick). I’m wary of the front three, in terms of moving to another club at a higher level. Part of it is a personal bias of mine, which is that I dislike players that love to dribble for the sake of dribbling. I’m referring to Benrahma, obviously, and Mbeumo to a lesser extent. Watkins is my favorite of the three, though I question if he could do it at a club that isn’t dominant in an attacking sense. This is often the problem with non “top 6” clubs signing players. They either lack organization throughout or simply don’t have the quality needed to play “expansive football”. You end up with Bournemouth, Burnley, Everton, Newcastle, Norwich, Palace, Villa, Watford and West Ham all playing drab football because they have unbalanced squads. Simply put, the style of play at Brentford allows the front three to rack up numbers. Playing at a higher level, as well as in a less attack-minded system, will likely see a drastic drop off in production.

Speaking of attacking football, this is a good time to shift to Fulham. I’m intrigued to see what sorts of business the club does in the transfer window, as well as how they fair in their return to the PL. In terms of current situation, I liken Fulham to Villa and Brentford to Norwich. The former needs to bolster its squad to survive, while the latter is likely going to have a fire sale, thus relying on replacing key players. With Fulham, I just see the squad as full of players too good for the Championship, but not at Premier League quality, hence the comparison to Villa. Anguissa and Seri were out on loan, so I’m curious to see if they’re loaned out again, sold, or brought back into the squad.

At the end of the day, the future of both clubs will come down to recruitment and being able to beat the teams around them. That sounds obvious, but it’s easier said than done. Fulham fans will be jubilant having beaten their rivals, but that squad is worse than Villa’s 2019/20 one, and it’s clear how close they were to going right back down. Just for fun, I’ll quickly compare a few players. CF – neither has a prolific PL level scorer, but we’ll just say Mitro is the best. Like I say, he’s not that good, and Fulham played more attacking football before. The two Villa guys from the Belgian league have been mostly poor, though Wesley was starting to play better right before his injury. Wingers – again, unless we’re counting Grealish as a winger, neither side has half decent wingers. Fulham’s include Brighton and Wolves rejects (Knockaert and Cavaleiro), as well as a guy who barely played for two years and had a purple patch at the end of the season (Kebano). Trezeguet and El-Ghazi are barely passable, so again, both could use upgrading. Midfield- for me, Villa’s is clear, though I do like Onomah. However, it’s possible he was another on a good run of form at the end of the season, and he’ll be playing at a higher level against better, more physical opponents. At times it looked like he was back in youth football, simply being stronger and more technical than the inferior players trying to stop him. Case in point being that solo effort against Swansea. As I said, Anguissa may come back, or he could stay at Villarreal or be sold elsewhere. He’s quality, and it was more of a Fulham issue than a Zambo issue, as he’s been a success before and after his time at the Cottage. Seri is possibly comparable to McGinn, though he’s been on a downward trajectory for 3 or so seasons. Luiz has come into his own in the latter stages of the season, and I think there’s a useful player in Nakamba, though he’s a bit raw. Grealish is levels above pretty much everyone else in either squad, though Cairney and Onomah could be squad players in most non “top 6” PL sides. Defense – neither is solid, simply put. Hector and Mings are cut out for the top flight, but they both need a partner to make a back four comfortable. Mawson could potentially be that for Fulham, but who knows. His two most recent top flight seasons ended in relegation, clearly not a good sign. He has been out the entire year with a knee injury, after further investigation. Joe Bryan, despite his heroics in the final, is a liability as a defensive left back. Odoi can defend, but is relatively useless going forward. Christie is decent on both sides of the ball, but that’s at Championship level. I’m not overly impressed with any other Villa defender. Hause and Konsa have their moments, but the fact that Taylor and Elmo are still there and playing minutes at this point is a worrying sign. Keeper – I’d say it’s about even, honestly. Rodak has been good, but that’s a lower level. Heaton and Reina are old, plus the former is coming off an ACL. Long story short, Fulham once again have work to do in the transfer market. Villa had more holes in the squad coming up, thus they were literally forced to address them by buying players. On the other hand, Fulham find themselves with a squad full of inbetweeners. Sheffield United came in with a largely “unproven” squad, but their goal difference was much better (37 vs 16). Chris Wilder is also significantly better and more experienced as a manager.