Sevilla v Inter

This is my first preview on here. Some people like them; I like reading them when the author knows what he/she is talking about. I wouldn’t be writing this if I hadn’t watched both of the teams involved, as that’s just silly. Why act like you have some kind of expertise on something when you don’t? Anyways, onto the preview, as I don’t want to have this drag on.

Inter: I’ve written an article on the goalkeeper situation, at least going forward, and I had something in the works for how I think Conte should do in the transfer window. The current team, and I think this is mostly down to the system, is not particularly fun to watch. The 2016/17 season, when Conte won the Premier League with Chelsea, was the one season in recent years I just didn’t watch. In the fall I was working during the day and coaching in the late afternoon, and then in the spring I was coaching every week day, often getting home at 9 pm or later due to games. Safe to say I paid little to no attention to football that year; that meant I missed that special Monaco team as well. Conte plays a 3-5-2, and IMO he popularized it in England due to that title-winning season. Long story short, it’s a high-pressing system that’s meant to force turnovers, thus creating high quality chances in the opposing team’s third when they’re out of position. The Shakhtar game was a perfect example, as the Ukrainians could not handle the Inter press, whatsoever (xG was 1.54 and they scored 5). Barella on the first goal takes advantage of the Shakhtar defense losing the ball at the back, putting in an exquisite cross for Lautaro to finish. Shakhtar had two chances at 1-0, the first a shot from Antonio (a player I really like, by the way) that went over the bar and the second a header from Moraes straight at Handanovic. The 2-0 was a header from D’Ambrosio off a corner, and at that point Shakhtar lost any hope, allowing a further 3 relatively soft goals late on. The point here is they have two strikers that can be lethal, and they work well together. The wing backs are able to give it their all with the 5-sub rule in effect, as with 30 or so minutes left Conte can withdraw them for fresh legs. The midfield 3 is compact, provides plenty of energy and some creativity at times. The defense (plus GK) is the other strength of the team, as de Vrij has arguably been the best CB in the league. Add to that Godin, who’s regained form at the end of the season, and Bastoni, who’s been a revelation coming from Atalanta at only 21 years of age.

Sevilla: The kings of Europa made their way to the final with a 2-1 win against Man United. Now, I need to start by saying that I’ve mostly watched them in Europe, as well as maybe 7 league games. If I were to compare them to a PL team, I’d actually pick Liverpool, which is kinda funny considering they played in this very competition 4 years ago. The Merseysiders have been vastly successful in the years that followed, while the Andalusian club has been pretty mediocre. I compare the two because you have two rampaging fullbacks, a Brazilian DM shielding the CB’s, two number 8’s, a couple of inside forwards, and a striker. Obviously, the roles don’t exactly overlap, as Banega is more creative than Henderson or Wijnaldum, and Firmino is a rare player in the #9 position. Also, the weakness in this Sevilla team is at striker, as de Jong has never been prolific outside of the Dutch league and En-Nesyri is only a decent forward. Given the amount of crossing done, Ben Yedder (sold to Monaco in 2019) may not have been the best fit for how J-Lo wants them to play, but he is a significantly better finisher than anyone at the club. The other main difference is Ocampos and Suso are creators, rather than the finishers that Mane and Salah are. Again, this is an issue because there simply aren’t enough goals in the side. Against United, the xG favored the English club by .4, even without the penalty scored by Bruno Fernandes. To me, having watched the game, it actually seemed more lopsided in United’s favor. The first half was relatively even, but from about 46 minutes on Sevilla were holding on for dear life until de Jong scored. This is reflected by how well Bono played, making 6 saves to the one by De Gea.

Analysis: How do I see this playing out? Basically, as I hinted at in describing the two sides, Sevilla often have what can be described as “possession without penetration”. It happened at Madrid under Lopetegui as well, though he wasn't there long enough to fully implement his system. Part of that comes down to the lack of goal-scoring threat. In the Shakhtar game, Inter had less than 40% possession but were happy to let the opponent play around with the ball, going nowhere. That’s exactly how I see it playing out for Sevilla. Inter will be compact, as they always are, pressing high at times, and Conte’s wing backs will nullify the threat from Navas and Reguilon. I really like Jules Koundé, and he’ll only get better, but he and Diego Carlos haven’t dealt with a strike partnership at this level before. They struggled against United, and the explanation can be inconsistency of the youth in the Red Devil attack, as well as a lack of clinical finishing. One battle I’m interested in is the midfield. If the starting lineups are unchanged, I give the edge to Sevilla.

Prediction: Inter have better players in key positions, as well as a better manager. My heart wants Sevilla to win. If they do, it'll come down to creativity in midfield and/or the fullbacks finding joy against Inter's wing backs. That said, I'll go with a narrow 1-0 victory for Inter.