Round of 16 initial thoughts

Will do a further breakdown of certain matchups I deem to be interesting enough, but just wanted to give my thoughts on the Champions League draw.

I'll lump a few together, as they're ones I see as having a clear favorite.

For some reason, it seems like Man City get the easiest draw every single year until the quarterfinal, and even then they lose to a team they should beat on paper. Gladbach are not very good. That group was a trainwreck of teams not good enough to win the competition. City should roll them over. The only way something interesting happens is if City carry over their lethargic form, and the high-powered Gladbach attack can be clinical on the break.

Bayern vs Lazio is actually interesting, to me at least, although Bayern are clearly favorites. We'll see how the shorter break this year affects Bayern, since usually they'd have a month off. The only way I see Lazio winning is if they exploit the high line, which I don't see happening because there's little to no pace in that squad.

Same with Juventus and Porto. I'm obviously biased in this case, but Juventus are objectively better. Also, the way Porto will sit back and be reactive only feeds into Juve's way, as they grind defensive teams down almost every week in Serie A.

Last one in this category is the L teams, Liverpool and Leipzig. I've talked about Leipzig already. With Liverpool, the entire season comes down to fitness and that injury crisis. They could easily win nothing, or they could do the double. It's hard to predict. Of these, it's my favorite matchup, followed by the Bayern one.

Now for the closer ties.

Atleti-Chelsea is one I swear I've seen dozens of times since Simeone's been in charge of the Spanish side. I'm not particularly interested in this one, simply because I can see it turning into an old school battle. Atleti are better to watch and play higher up the pitch this season, but they may well resort to the old ways against "big teams" like they did against Madrid in the 2-0 loss. I don't really know what Chelsea are doing, and it's only due to no team being good this year that Lampard isn't under fire.

Next is Atalanta-Madrid. Again, it could just be another bad year, but neither of these looks to have what it takes to win this. Gasperini has pissed off a number of senior players, mainly Ilicic and Papu Gomez, hence why the league form has been abysmal, and it seems the project is coming to an abrupt halt. It's almost a miracle Ajax are so bad because this team isn't very good. I fully expect Madrid to win, even though they have obvious flaws. The defense crumbles if Ramos isn't there, the midfield of Kroos-Casemiro-Modric works some of the time, and the attack is still crap. Meh.

Barcelona-PSG is another that seems to happen regularly. Paris has the better team in terms of balance, though I think that says more about Barcelona and Koeman. PSG made the final last season, but they once again look like crap, so who knows what happens there. Both of these could potentially make a run, but they're worse than last season.

Last is Sevilla-Dortmund. I guess it reflects how bad the top level of football is that this another matchup of two greatly flawed teams. Sevilla can't score, Dortmund can't defend. Neither will go past the quarters. The German side sacked their manager, so we'll see how that goes.

In conclusion, there are some decent matchups, but as of now I'm not particularly fussed about the competition. The way they've condensed the season, plus the arbitrary nature of various things (players missing games, fans or not at grounds) makes it hard to get into the sport right now. Maybe that will change with this break from CL football, since it starts back up in February.