Prem Preview 20/21

Generic league preview as the season approaches.

I decided to put the teams into tiers, though I'll address them in order of where I project them to finish.

1-4 (current and future Champions League entrants):

Just like last season, Liverpool, City, United and Chelsea make up the top four. It's gotten to the point where there are clearly defined areas of the table. Obviously, predicting is hard, or else betting wouldn't be so profitable for the companies that advertise it so hard. I'm not taking too much stock into how the season ended. Liverpool had the title sewn up, City were focusing on CL, United had an "Arsenal under Emery" type run where they beat bad teams and were often bailed out. It'll be extremely tough for Liverpool to maintain their level, and I expect City to improve, as they under-performed last season. Chelsea is the mystery of this section. They've made lovely signings, as I'd know from watching Havertz and Werner weekly in Germany, as well as Ziyech when I'd tune into Ajax. The thing with them is I don't really rate their defensive unit, from a system perspective and player personnel wise. Thiago Silva should help, as should a new keeper, though I won't pretend to have watched Mendy. They'll easily get top 4, but I just don't see the cohesion and defensive solidity to seriously challenge. City/Liverpool (again) for the title, with Liverpool edging it; Chelsea and United rounding out.

5 and 6 (grouping North London rivals together):

Arsenal and Spurs look to be on the outside of the Champions League spots, once again. I put them here because they have more talent/depth than the ones below, but haven't improved enough to reach top 4. In particular, I look at the fact that Spurs only have Harry Kane up front, and he's an enigma compared to his seasons as a top striker. By that, I mostly mean he looks washed physically, but he can still finish. I do like P-EH as a DM with the creative options of Lo Celso and Ndombele in front of him. Dele Alli has been trash for a while now, yet for some reason nobody talks about it. I'm not sure how to describe Arsenal. Arteta has them playing a pragmatic style, which works against top teams that they can hit on the break, but like United, it's not conducive to creating chances. There was a stat that they created the least (or close to the least) chances in the league in 2019/20. Ozil is supposed to help with that, but who knows what his deal is. I like the look of the CB's coming from Ligue 1, so they should help the defensive issues. On a side note, both teams have a decent shot at winning the Europa League. Premier League teams should really be winning it every year, or at least making the semi-finals, considering the massive financial advantage they have over other leagues.

Rest of top half: Everton, Leicester, Wolves

Three pretty different situations, though all have squad turnover from last year. For a team like Everton to jump massively from 12th last season to say, Europa League, is a big step. At the same time, their main problem was a poor midfield, and with Allan and Doucoure (with Gomes and possible Gbamin) that should be solidified. I don't like the RB options, as I watched Kenny in the Schalke shitshow last season, and Coleman's legs are gone. Pickford is on Kepa's level, maybe slightly better, and Digne is the only current LB (unless you count Delph, who's often injured). Finally, Bolasie and Walcott are not wingers at an acceptable caliber, period, so that's another position that needs upgrading.

Leicester is a weird one. Personally, I don't like Chilwell, but I also don't see Castagne/Justin/Thomas being on his level, much less an upgrade. Ricardo will need to come back and regain his level, as that system is predicated on fullbacks getting forward. They also have Europa after bottling top 4, which I see as a hindrance. Oh, and Vardy will drop off at some point, and they have nobody to make up for his consistent goal contributions of the years.

Wolves will have the benefit of no Europe, especially with how thin the squad is. I'd pick them out of the three here as the best shot to "upset the top 6", but that's because they have the best starting XI (continuity is important). I love Fabio Silva, but he's a long term project, and outside of wingers there's not much depth.

The bottom 11 are interchangeable, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see any 3 of them relegated.

Lower mid-table: Brighton, Leeds, Newcastle, Palace, Southampton, Sheffield United

These teams all avoided the relegation battle last season, outside of Leeds obviously, who were promoted. I wouldn't bet on them, period, simply because most of that squad hasn't played at this level. That said, I just see worse teams/situations and don't see them going down. The signings for far have mostly been for the youth side, with Robin Koch and Rodrigo Moreno joining the first team.

Brighton and Southampton appear to be on the upswing, though that can all change quickly. I like Potter, but it'll take a while to put together a squad to play how he envisions. Bringing in Lallana and letting Mooy leave was odd. Like, technically the former is better, but he's older, injury prone, and hasn't been "in form" since 2016. I'm also surprised Saints let both Reed and Lemina go after selling HØJBJERG to Spurs. That area of the pitch is a concern, as is goal-scoring if Ings regresses. Both sides are solid defensively, though, which will keep them away from a relegation battle.

Blades had a surprising season last campaign, even if it tailed off drastically, seeing them finish 9th. They had the element of surprise as a team no-one else really knew about. It's also yet to be seen how their signings will work out. This is always the case, but a team that's been promoted twice in recent years bringing in more players from the division below is a risk. Ampadu is one I'm excited for. Last season was a waste for him, as going to Leipzig didn't make sense from the jump. They had the French guys, converted German fullbacks, plus Orban at CB, and all of Laimer, Sabitzer, Demme (left in Jan.), Adams, Haidara and Kampl in midfield. He only turns 20 this month, which is crazy, so the main thing he needs is playing time. I expect Sander Berge to acclimatize more to the league and begin to thrive in his midfield role. I haven't watched much of the Derby guys (Bogle and Lowe), but two seasons ago I remember Bogle looking promising, so that double deal could turn out to be a coup. One other note is I rarely see a team with so many strikers that don't score. That's certainly an area they need to address. McGoldrick, in particular, is guilty of being a poor finisher (only scored 2 from an xG of 7).

Newcastle and Palace pair nicely here, as they both have "dinosaur" managers that stifle any joy that could be found watching football. Mike Ashley seems to be realizing that until he sells the club, he needs to invest a bit to keep them in the league, which he's doing. Wilson and Fraser from Bournemouth are tidy signings, as is Jamal Lewis. One potential negative is all three were relegated last season... Eze should help Palace in terms of creativity, but I still see them struggling for goals. The squad is quite old as well, which could lead to injuries and lower performance levels, and their form to end last season was abysmal.

Relegation battle: Villa, Burnley, Fulham, West Brom, West Ham

Like I said above, any of these could easily be safe with a number of games to go, but someone has to be down here.

So far, Villa have brought in Matty Cash. It's odd because I'd have preferred to see him at Sheffield United or Wolves as a wing back, and Villa played with 4 defenders when they had their mini escape from the relegation spots. I touched on them before, but what I'll say is they just need better players. Goal-scoring, goalkeeping, wide play... Aside from McGinn, Douglas Luiz, and Grealish, most of the squad could easily be upgraded. Watkins has benefited by being in Thomas Frank's system at Brentford, which inflated his numbers (see Benrahma and Mbeumo). It was also in the Championship, which, let's be real, is not a high quality league. Just look at Maupay, who was roughly as good at Brentford. He under-performed for Brighton last season. Granted, they were in transition after the anti-football Hughton had them playing, but Villa aren't lighting it up in terms of chance creation either. I also see Grealish having a Zaha at Palace situation, where he won't do something drastic to force a move, and the club won't sell because he's their star player. Long term, that rarely works out. Just saying. They also lack wingers outside of Grealish. Imagine if they'd properly deployed Adama Traore...

West Brom are the mystery team for me. I haven't watched much of them since Bilic took over, but they're taking the route of keeping most of the promotion side together. I wouldn't be surprised to see that continuity benefit them, but at the same time it could easily be a case of most of them simply not being good enough to play at this level. They have a number of players that are the opposite of Chris Brunt and co. the last time they were in the league, namely Diangana and Matheus Pereira.

Fulham fall into the category of the Baggies, but they are (once again) doing business. In particular, I look at that midfield and there are options for days. I already discussed most of them in the Fulham-Brentford aftermath article, so I'll just add something on Lemina. They got him, as well as Reed (permanent) from Saints this window. He's talented, having been at Juventus, but it's about attitude, which is why it's an odd signing. Again, I put the club down here because most of the players, on paper, are Championship level. As I said before, they've become pragmatic since Scott Parker joined, compared to the naive style that saw them rock bottom last time, so that could change their fate.

Look, I admire Sean Dyche. What he's done at Burnley has been awesome. At the same time, I get a sense that things aren't quite rosy up north. Jeff Hendrick is the only notable player they've lost, but they've been playing a style for years that covers up the lack of footballing ability in the squad. That said, they're defensively solid, and that's almost always good enough to keep a team up. Gotta mention Dwight McNeil, the shining light at the club. I see shades of Bale during his Spurs days in the kid. Might have to do with his physique and being left footed, but he does some audacious things with the ball many guys can't/don't do, and that makes Burnley watchable. Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood are also not given enough credit, considering the style the team plays.

Last is West Ham. The circus club of the league. They should not be down here. Talent wise, they should be up in that category with Everton, Leicester, and Wolves. Actually, I might write an article on the situation at the club, as it's a complete joke. To quickly explain, they moved to an athletics stadium and were promised European football, which has clearly not been the case. David Moyes has coached them twice now, and for some reason he was kept on to lead them this season, despite being in the Bruce/Hodgson category. I don't even rate Ancelotti, as I think he's underachieved given the immensely talented squads he's had over the years, but he's at least been backed by Everton and the owners. I mention Everton because Moyes was there back in the day and they were in the same position as West Ham not long ago, hugely underachieving and spending money on dross. Mark Noble, the club captain, sided with the fans on Twitter after the sale of Grady Diangana to West Brom. So you have a crap manger not being given money to buy players, and the players already there don't like him or the owners. The fans are rightly pissed off, as they've been played for fools, plus they can't even go to games anymore.

If I were to pick three teams to go down, right now, they'd be Aston Villa, Fulham, and West Brom. Exciting, I know. I so badly want to pick West Ham, but the players are too good for it. They'd go down if fans were allowed in stadiums from the start, with how soulless the stadium is and the toxic atmosphere. I also wanted to pick one of Burnley, Newcastle, and Palace, simply because I'd like teams with ambition like Fulham and Villa to stay up. That said, I just think the step up is too much for the promoted teams, and Villa have made questionable decisions once again in the market.