Athletic prowess the difference?

I try to do some sort of takeaway every time I watch the football. This week, the two games I watched (in Europe, that is) on Tuesday and Wednesday were PSG's win against Barcelona and Porto's win against Juventus. Both support my theory, which I'll explain in a minute, but more so the latter. Here it goes. The reason Italian and more recently Spanish teams have been struggling in the Champions League is a lack of physicality. I had this idea when I woke up about this, which is that I'd do some digging to see if there are tangible statistics to illustrate the gap in "intensity" that you can see play out on the pitch. The other obvious reason, to be fair, is that possession for the sake of it has been dying out since Guardiola left Barcelona, and most Spanish teams haven't adjusted to the faster paced, back and forth game that other leagues favor. Italian teams, on the other hand, have been struggling in Europe since the early 2000s. Milan and then Inter have one Champions League title apiece, but other than that it's been Juventus nearly making it, as they do, and that was a defensive juggernaut with a midfield that had physicality to it.

The specific reason I even had this idea was the Porto performance against Juventus. A stat I just pulled up on FBref that intrigued me was pressures in the attacking third. This is basically a "high press" stat. Most of the top teams are predictable there, including Liverpool, Eibar, Bayern, PSG, Leipzig, and Leeds. The first Serie A team is Sampdoria, which is kinda odd, but the next is Atalanta, and then Inter a bit further down. Similarly, successful pressure percentage is possibly a good indicator of teams that are good off the ball in that sense. Interestingly with that stat, Dortmund are first and Sevilla are in the top 10, so it makes sense that that matchup would be the most exciting so far, as I'd predicted. Six of the top 10 are German, which makes sense, and the one English team is Liverpool while the only Italian team is Atalanta.

The caveat here is these stats are counting the top 5 leagues, but they're based on each individual league, if that makes sense. European competition isn't the same, and that's an issue when trying to analyze the situation. For instance, let's take Sevilla. They're 5th in successful pressure percentage, but most of their pressures are in the midfield third (Dortmund is the same, TBF). In La Liga, they have the lowest PPDA. Actually, let's talk about PPDA for a minute. I just pulled them all up separately on understat, and I think it'll reinforce what I just briefly explained. This is all based on this season, mind you, so the sample size isn't big. That said, Serie A has the smallest range in PPDA numbers, going from 8.52 (Verona) to 13.63 (Benevento). The Premier League has the widest, with Leeds at 6.75 and Newcastle all the way at 17.89. Germany and Spain, number wise, are quite similar, but this metric doesn't account for the actual style of football. What I'm trying to get at here is if you're looking at passes, each pass could take a certain amount of time or vary widely in touches before the next pass. Time on the ball is a thing. Based off the prevalence of English, French and German flags in the attacking third pressures category, that only supports what I'm saying. That was a long-winded way of me saying that the style, having watched every league regularly outside of Ligue 1, is slower in Italy and Spain than it is elsewhere. Thus, onto my next point.

In addition to how physically superior Porto looked compared to Juventus, I was also looking at Atleti when they drew 1-1 with Levante in the first of two meetings back to back with the Valencian side. I'm a preview kind of guy, and I was thinking, "how can I take what I've noticed in the first four ties that have just happened, and project that onto what I'd expect to see in the other four first legs?" I'll just say now, I fully expect both Bayern and Chelsea to win their ties. There are caveats, which I'll get to now. Bayern, known for playing a high line, haven't looked great this season. Alaba and possibly Boateng are leaving, and the midfield is devoid of creativity without Thiago. At the same time, Lazio are just not stylistically suited to modern football. That Juve performance really killed any optimism I had for Lazio, in that they just don't have pace or explosiveness in the squad. The most explosive player, let's say, would be Joaquin Correa, and even he's not particularly fast. Chelsea is an interesting one, given the coaching change. They're more about possession now with Tuchel, and Atleti in their heyday were known for sitting deep and suffering, trying to nick a 1-0 at home and scrape by away from Madrid. I've watched more Atleti than Chelsea this season, so I'm more familiar with their strengths and weaknesses. Basically, in the league, they've been possessing the ball against teams that sit deep, and usually they find a way through, often with a penalty or some luck on a deflected goal. Defensively, due to playing higher to accommodate Suarez as well as having more of the ball, they're vulnerable compared to the stereotypical Simeone team. Oblak has been good, as usual, given that he's an elite keeper, but I've noticed that he hasn't adjusted to the style change. There's a massive gap at times between him and the back line, which I think Chelsea can exploit. The thing is, if Chelsea want to hold the ball, there won't be any space to exploit because Simeone will be fine with playing deeper and looking to hit on the counter. However, going with what I've said about physicality and pace, Atleti may struggle to actually do anything on the break against Chelsea.

Tactically, with that matchup, I'm curious to see how each team sets up. I mean, it's lately been a version of the 4-4-2/3-5-2 that's lopsided. Actually, they mirror each other if you think about it. Azpilicueta and Hermoso, right v left, as the versatile defender, Chilwell and Vrsaljko as the fullback playing wing back, and Carrasco v Hudson-Odoi as the winger playing wing back. Oh, and speaking of physicality, I wonder if any of Reece James, N'Golo Kante and Geoffrey Kondogbia will start. Llorente and Mount kinda cancel each other out as the all-action box-to-box guy, while Jorginho, Koke, Kovacic, and Saul aren't particularly gifted physically. When struggling in the first half lately, Vrsaljko has been pulled at HT, usually for Kondogbia, and Llorente goes out to RWB. I think that's a waste of Marcos and his ability going forward. Trippier (assuming he's fit) will be a huge boost for the second leg. The away goals tiebreaker is important, though it doesn't even make sense in this case given the neutral venue. I could see it playing out much like Atleti's matchup last season with Liverpool, and it'll come down to finishing (duh), which somehow Atleti did better than the reigning champions.

Now, on to some other matchups. Atalanta v Madrid is weird but fun at the same time. Neither has been particularly good this season, to be honest. Atalanta are physically not a Serie A team, in that most of the players aren't Italian in nationality or style. They man mark, play a high line, and are known for bulldozing the opposition. Madrid, on the other hand, like their city rivals usually struggle to break down defensive teams and resort to crossing, while cutting open teams that play expansive football as they leave space in behind. I'm curious to see how the physical nature of Atalanta will affect Madrid, especially with Ramos out for at least the first leg. Also, Madrid have a small squad by choice, so Zidane will be hoping everyone is fit while Gasperini has options if he wants to try various personnel. Finally, we have City and Gladbach. The only real hope I have of Gladbach winning is that the physicality comes through. City, despite being an English team, isn't a squad full of "athletes" in the American sense, but rather small, intelligent, technically superior individuals that come together to make the Guardiola philosophy work. Gladbach have been poor in the league, and it's been announced that Marco Rose is leaving. That said, they certainly have the personnel to hurt City on the counter, and the Manchester side is known to crumble against teams they should be beating in this competition. Form goes out the window as well, which should be obvious, though I feel many "analysts" and ill-informed pundits just look at league tables to predict things.