Finding a new Lion for the Rossoneri

I'm going to make this one quite simple. We have no idea how long Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be able to operate at the level required for Milan, considering the club is looking to return to the Champions League and consolidate in its rightful spot in the league. He's 39, and while that's alright for now, it's unrealistic to think it'll last. In this little investigation I'll look at what the big Swede does best and suggest options for an understudy and eventual replacement. I decided to use the fbref data to make my own graphics, since I've been lazy of late using the football slices data.

Main strengths: Zlatan is a target man these days, and has been since his legs started to go. Nothing wrong with that. What he's elite at is winning headers and scoring goals. I remember watching him at LA Galaxy and he'd literally hang out around the edge of the box or by the penalty spot waiting for service. That's fine in teams that dominate possession and have players around him doing the work, like the current Milan. Parameters are basically good at scoring, elite in the air, and touches in the box. Height helps, clearly, but isn't the only criteria. I also wonder if maybe finding a more "modern" striker that presses could be an insightful thing to add. A bit of creativity is also ideal. An intangible aspect of the game is leadership, which Zlatan oozes in that young dressing room, so I'll keep that in mind. Age may or not be a factor; on the one hand they already have tons of youngsters, but on the other you may say the re-sale value could come into play down the road.

Just as a side note, I debated putting Calver-Lewin amongst the options before deciding against it. He's too important to Everton and I don't see him being allowed to leave for Milan. In terms of finishing, he's up there now with Zlatan, but the other areas of his game still lack, at least compared to others in this piece.

Current options:

Honestly, there aren't any. There are other strikers, or center forwards, but none of them do what Zlatan does. Leao and Rebic are the "first team" options, while Colombo is looking to make a breakthrough.

Haller: I wrote about him and how West Ham simply isn't a good fit. Part of the issue is the attitude of the club overall, but obviously now it's more about the manager and his system. Antonio, a converted winger who runs the channels relentlessly, is the preferred choice up front in the reactive "anti-football" set up of David Moyes.

Sorloth: Not sure if I published this one or not, but at one point I wrote about Leipzig and their issues up front. The main problem is they don't have a reliable #9 to make runs and finish, which is what Timo Werner was molded into during his years at the club. Sorloth, the man I'm mentioning here, was brought in, though I'm not sure why. When I watch him, and when you look at stats, he profiles more Poulsen than Werner. By that I mean he's got a creative side to him and wins his share of headers, but isn't one to dribble or pressure much. He's more athletic than Zlatan (not much of a feat at this point) but hasn't proven himself as a goalscorer in a "challenging" league. I just think, fit wise (like Haller), he'd prosper as a target man, while Leipzig need more of a Milik. With the stats part, it's just tough that he hasn't scored for Leipzig or Palace, considering that's all the data available. Oh well.

Giroud: I've always been a fan. That said, it's a bit odd that he's perennially in this position of being underappreciated by his club, but never seems to leave for clear first team minutes. I don't know if a serial winner can be "underrated", but the Frenchman may well be. Not too much to say. He'd be a good fit, leader as well for the young players.

Dzeko: quite possibly the best fit here. What I'll say, however, is he's currently at a rival Serie A club, which is not great, and he's not THAT much younger than Zlatan. He's less technical, but let's be honest, Zlatan is a freak of nature. Great at headers, scoring,

Weghorst: He's the modern "target man". Put the ball on his head and he'll win it. At the same time, he's a workhorse, which Zlatan at this point is not. What he lacks is the output. It's unclear at times why that is. I reckon it's partly due to him simply not being as good as Zlatan, which isn't too surprising, while part of it is the system he's playing in at Wolfsburg.

Thuram: he caught my eye when sifting through the stats. I want to use a baseball comparison here, like A-Rod and others moving from short to third long term because of mobility, but I'll compare him to another Frenchman in Henry. The lineage is there, born in Italy, stands at 6'4". It's all there. On top of that, playing on the wing means he's adept to beating players off the dribble and presses at a decent rate. One could say he's similar to Leao, and that he's not clinical enough. Both at least somewhat true, though he's young. I'd say, however, that stats wise he's closer to Ibra than Leao, so he could play up front with Leao out wide.

Milik: the main issue with Milik is his injury history. Well, that and his contract. He's not playing for Napoli this season because his contract ends, which is never ideal. That said, whoever gets him won't have a transfer fee (yes, agent fees and signing bonuses exist, I know). That's mainly why I included him, as well as his goal-scoring numbers in the league.

Findings from the data: I included in the player description part most of the general trends to the data, and why I picked said player in each section. What I'll also say, however, is each player has different context to his numbers. For instance, Sorloth barely played for Palace, tore it up in Turkey, and has only played a few games in Germany. That massively skews the data.

Conclusions:

I decided to cut a few players once I compiled the data. The three were Sorloth (just signed with Leipzig), Weghorst (finishing doubt), and Milik (injuries). This leaves us with one youngster, one approaching his prime, and two in their 30's.

Dzeko vs Giroud is the next debate. For me, Dzeko is the most "ready made" replacement for Zlatan. He already plays in the league and has been the starter at Roma for a while now (more than 2x the minutes of Giroud since the start of 18/19). Giroud, on the other hand, is an objectively better scorer, but he's been coming off the bench at club level for a while. He'd be more attainable than Dzeko, however.

Haller is the "near his prime" player, and I've already written about him so I'll keep this short. He's one that needs to feel appreciated, and that's not happening in London. If he's given the chance to replace Zlatan, it'll work out because he's a damn good player.

Thuram is the least predictable of the lot. He has the highest "ceiling" based on his age and stats thus far, but he could also fail in a system that isn't Marco Rose's. He needs to improve his output in front of goal, but that should happen as he develops and transitions to CF full time.

Potential: Thuram > Haller > Giroud > Dzeko

Leadership: Dzeko > Giroud > Thuram > Haller

Finishing: Giroud > Dzeko > Haller = Thuram

Creativity: Thuram > Dzeko = Haller > Giroud

Aerial: Thuram > Dzeko > Haller > Giroud

Looking at it how I just sorted the categories I looked at, the top two should be Dzeko and Thuram. Can't go wrong with the other two, either, to be fair. It comes down to what you're looking for in a signing. Dzeko would be short term, while Thuram could easily give you 7-10 years. Personally, I'm biased towards Haller, having loved his Frankfurt days, and he's at a point in his career where he needs first team football to get where he was a couple years ago. At the same time, if you need leadership or want a proper future star, the other options are better. The strategy at Milan recently has been to buy young players and supplement them with quality veterans, such as Kjaer and Zlatan. If Zlatan is still around for a couple years, you'd maybe go with the young gun Thuram or the more developed (but still young) Haller.