David Alaba: Destination and Replacement

No long intro, let's get to it.

Age: At 28, Alaba is in his prime. To be fair, he came into Bayern's first team at 17 or 18 years old, so the general consensus is that he should be 30+ by now. I'm interested in how playing week in, week out at such a young age affects players later in their careers, but that's another article. One aspect of a transfer is a player's injury history, so I went to Transfermarkt to do a bit of digging. He's definitely not the picture of health, but at the same time he hasn't had any "long term" injuries since 2014/15. He had a 49 day absence in 15/16 (7 games), but I'm describing long term as at least two months. Bayern have a history of players that miss loads of games, notably Robbery (Ribery and Robben) in the past decade, as well as Coman, so it could be a club-wide issue.

Position dilemma?: Alaba is Austrian, and over the years he's played pretty much everywhere for his national team. I've seen him play as a number 10, 8, 6, left back, and even CB. However, at Bayern he came through as a left back, sliding over to CB at times under Guardiola and returned there when Flick arrived due to the CB injuries and the emergence of Davies at LB. Conventional football wisdom would say that he's too small to be a CB. However, he's been playing there now, albeit in a unique system. Below are his numbers since 2018 at both of his main positions. What stands out to me is the aggressive nature of his passing, as well as his relative reluctance as a defender. His actual defensive numbers aren't great, although as I said, I think that's due to the system. When you dominate possession and have the sweeper-keeper himself, Manuel Neuer, you can play a high line and avoid doing much defending. The other Bayern CB's have similar numbers, so it's not just Alaba. Lucas Hernandez, the most similar player to Alaba in the squad, takes more risks in both dribbling and tackling and is better in the air. Davies and Sule are ridiculously good, something supported by the numbers as well as simply watching them.

Where he'd like to go: It's long been rumored that Alaba would like to go to Spain. It must be weird having been at Bayern so long to move elsewhere, considering there are mostly sideways or downward steps, as they say. You can argue a very small number of clubs would maybe be a step up, and right now I'd only say Liverpool, if we're being honest. Barcelona and Madrid are both in varying degrees of chaos, but they're two of the most popular clubs worldwide. In terms of needs for both teams, they both could use him. Madrid need a CB as Ramos is only getting older and at some point will leave/retire. Militao hasn't proven worthy of a starting berth, and Nacho has never been at the level to play regularly if the club wants to win trophies. They're covered at LB with Mendy, and I can see Reguilon coming back when Marcelo finally departs. Barcelona, on the other hand, need a left back to replace Jordi Alba. Alaba seems to want to play in the middle of the pitch, and as he ages he will probably lose the explosiveness needed to play LB, so that might not work. Atleti could use him to partner JM Gimenez, and I'd love him to go there, but I just don't see it. The problem this past window was the lack of funds at these clubs. Barcelona are in debt, hence why Suarez and others were more or less released. Madrid bought in nobody, and it's showing with an injury crisis already. Now that Alaba is at the end of his contract, he'll either be sold on the cheap to get a fee, or leave for nothing in the summer. That'll help with the wages, since no transfer fee means more on wages and of course agent fees.

Potential destinations: Aside from the Spanish clubs I mentioned, there are only a few reasonable places he'd consider going (or that could pay his wages). There are the top PL clubs, the "top six", and aside from maybe Laporte he's better than all the current left-sided CB's at those clubs. Liverpool would be quite interesting. I'd love to see him with van Dijk. Chelsea still probably need to improve at CB, considering Thiago Silva is old and their best one at the moment. United, as per usual, need to improve their defense, and he could partner one of their more athletic/aerially sound CB's. Arsenal just signed Gabriel, and he seems good, and they haven't played Champion's League in ages, so maybe that's not the best fit. Spurs need a left-footed CB, for sure, but again, it's not a step up. City is an interesting one; he could play as an "inverted left back" or in a double pivot with Rodri, with KDB ahead of them. Alaba has always liked playing centrally, especially in midfield, and City's midfield is not what it was with Fernandinho and Silva.

Other clubs he'd maybe consider are Juventus and PSG, though they're arguably in the same position as Bayern (or worse) in terms of competition in the league. If Pirlo wants to play that back three, Alaba would be awesome as the left sided one, along with say Bonucci and de Ligt, or de Ligt and Demiral. Both of these clubs struggle at LB, and if he wanted to go back to that position it would easily be an upgrade over Sandro and Bernat. There's also Inter, though that's a volatile situation with Conte at the helm. They also have Bastoni, who's quite good and much younger.

Who could replace him: Bayern actually have a solid number of CB's currently. Nianzou, Richards, Lucas, Pavard, and Sule are all 25 or under. I realize some of them play out wide, but I do think Lucas is better at CB, as is Richards. I get that flexibility is good. At the same time, a lot of them are injury prone (not to mention Boateng and Martinez), and two other fullbacks are injured (Davies and Kimmich). Bouna Sarr was not very good at Marseille, so it's a mystery as to how he's even at Bayern. I guess it's them being cheap. Let's say you have three CB's in Boateng, Lucas and Sule, plus one of the two young guys taking some squad minutes. You then have one left back. I guess the RB situation is fine, considering Richards can play there in a pinch, Kimmich obviously excels there, Pavard is the usual starter and Sarr is an option as well. That means you want a defensive LB or a CB (if you consider Lucas to be the defensive LB).

A few options: obvious ones are the French guys (Kounde, Konate, Upamecano), and they'd all be brilliant acquisitions for Bayern, but I'll throw in a few others.

Evan N'Dicka- one of the guys I wrote about recently in my Haller/Frankfurt article, he's still only 21, despite falling off form wise after that Europa League run. This would be a case of back-up with potential to take over as the left-sided CB. A good passer and decent in the air, he sometimes struggles at actual defending. One thing about Bayern, at least recently, is they play the high line that almost relies more on defending space rather than 1v1. Can play at LB as well, although he's more defensive than other hybrid players I mention below.

Marco Senesi- The profile is right; taller than Alaba but shorter than the others mentioned here, left footed, old enough to be consistent but still has room to grow. Only obvious "red flag" is he's not done it in the Eredivisie for an extended period, having only joined last year. I'm about to watch some film of him at Feyenoord, as I've not seen too much of him... Not overly impressed in the matches I saw, all against "inferior" teams in the Dutch league. Lazy defending for one of RKC's goals and gave the ball away in the lead up to the other. Did alright in the other games, a 3-2 win against Emmen and a 2-0 win against Groningen. Emmen, in particular, scored a penalty (keeper at fault) and a ridiculous volley from 30+ yards out.

Benoit Badiashile- won't lie, I haven't watched him as it's hard to watch Ligue 1. I found a few games of his from prior seasons on Footballia, so I'll check him out at report back. One thing I'll say is he's quite young, which may be less than ideal with the two U20 talents they already have, as opposed to having a more experienced replacement. From the stats, he's immense in the air and progressive passing, two good signs. One question is he doesn't have that many pressures, compared to Alaba and N'Dicka, so that could be a style issue. Very promising player... It was a strange set of clips in that three of the four for Monaco were when he was playing in a back three, and the one where he was one of two CB's the right back was sent off early into the second half when they were 2-0 up. They sat back and conceded two silly goals. The second, in particular, was dumb because the left back bombed forward into the opposing box and left the defense 3v3 with Nimes on the break, and they conceded the equalizer.

Vitaliy Mykolenko- I've seen a bit of him for Kyiv in the Champions League. I have no idea where one would even watch the Ukrainian league. He's the same height as Alaba, according to TM, which would point him in the direction of being more finesse than the others here. I just searched on Footballia and found some footage of him, so I'll be checking that out... Update after watching; saw him play at both CB and LB. More electric than Alaba, at least at this point, but not as good defensively. He's actually the most similar to Alaba out of these players, in terms of size and playing style.

Ramy Bensebaini- one for the defensive LB/CB hybrid crowd, Bundesliga viewers will know him from Gladbach. Like Senesi, he arrived at the start of the 2019/20 season, coming from Rennes. He's been playing at left back for Marco Rose, but he has the physique of a CB, so that's always nice. Basically like Lucas. The stats show he's good at various aspects, such as aerial duels, tackling, and interceptions/pressures. It's a situation where he can either play as the more defensive of two fullbacks, LCB in a back three, or on the left of a defensive pair. Versatility is popular amongst Bayern players.

My pick- My first choice is Bensebaini. He can do pretty much what Lucas does, and has a similar build. One of the two could play CB while the other plays LB, and vice versa, or one could start at CB with Davies at LB. For more a pure center half, I'd go N'Dicka. There's a French contingent at the club, he knows the league, and his attributes could be better used in a system like Flick's. I like Badiashile, though he's high risk, high reward, especially at his age. Bayern already have two young CB's, as well as Mai who's out on loan. Mykolenko is the best "pure LB" and is most similar to Alaba, but he's coming from Ukraine. Knowing Bayern, they'll go for a French guy, probably Upamecano considering his swagger on the ball and the fact that he's at the best club of all the players mentioned. Or they'll make due with what they have in defense and reinforce the midfield.

Sources: Transfermarkt, Footballia, Football Slices