Cristiano's heir at Madrid

For a while now, there has been an obvious hole in the Real Madrid squad; the right wing.

Gareth Bale, one of my favorite footballers ever, has been injury prone for the duration of his stay in the Spanish capital. He has provided some beautiful goals in clutch moments that led to trophies, but his perceived attitude and lack of reliability in terms of production has soured his relationship with the club. Lucas Vazquez, despite being a hard worker, simply is not talented enough to play significant minutes at a top club. Other than that, there are a few youngsters (Rodrygo, Diaz, Kubo) who could be tried there, but there is no guarantee any of them will ever reach the required level. The rest of the team is solid for now, so it’s only sensible to find a proper winger. The obvious pick for this position is Kylian Mbappe. Cristiano is his idol, he’s French, and Zidane is the coach. It’s yet to be seen if and when this transfer will happen. PSG have no reason to sell him at this point. Madrid must make up for what they lost when Cristiano left; goal scoring. Part of those goal contributions will be covered by Hazard and to a lesser extent, Vinicius, on the other side of the pitch. Still, a reliable 20+ goal per season scorer separates Madrid from returning to glory. One way to alleviate the pressure the forwards face trying to score could be adding a goal-scoring CM, such as Havertz, van de Beek, or Milinkovic-Savic, but we’re just considering the right wing position today.

Stats: SCA, GCA, npxG+xA per 90 (fbref/statsbomb)

A brief explanation of what these abbreviations are:

SCA stands for shot-creating actions, so we're talking passes, dribbles or fouls drawn leading to a shot. GCA is similar, though it's more specifically the three aforementioned maneuvers leading to goals. npxG+xA is the simply the expected number of goals plus assists, not coming from penalties, a player has. Expected goals is an accumulation of the shots a player takes based on the likelihood of each shot going in. In the long-term it tends to be seen as better than simply taking goals (or assists) because there are many factors at hand, such as hitting the post, the shot being blocked, the keeper playing out of his skin, etc. The reason I used per 90 rather than the raw accumulation is players vary in the number of minutes played, which skews the data.

Cristiano Ronaldo: the reason this situation is even relevant, he shocked the club by leaving after the 2018 Champions League final. That was not his best season by any stretch, but it was his last and the only Madrid one that the specific stats were available for. As previously stated, there's creativity in the squad, just a clear lack of productivity in front of goal.

Bale and Vazquez: the two current options at the club that are not youngsters. They aren't far off Cristiano in terms of creativity, but again, goals are the problem, and that's where Cristiano, even now, blows them out of the water. With Bale, the talent was there, but between his body deteriorating and his mentality maybe drifting away in recent years, he cannot be relied upon. Vazquez is a grafter, possibly lucky to even be at Madrid, but never one to be confused as a world beater who will score 20 goals in a season.

Salah and Sterling: These are two of the best "wide forwards" currently, in terms of goal contributions, and they're playing in the Premier League, one of the consensus two "best" leagues in the world. They're both older than Mbappe and Sancho, with Salah currently in his prime and Sterling approaching that stage in his career. Statistically, they're about level with Sancho, though in reality, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 defending and goalkeeping are subpar compared to the top two and Serie A.

Di Maria: second to only Sancho in goals created and second to Mbappe in expected goals plus assists this season, the former Madrid star is tearing up Ligue 1, amassing a ridiculous 6.12 shot-creating actions per 90. Again, this is largely due to PSG dominating its domestic league, but those numbers are bonkers. At 32, he's obviously not a candidate to re-sign for the 13-time European Cup winners, but his statistics cannot be ignored.

Lucas Ocampos: this is a player Madrid have been linked with during the 2019/20 season. He joined Sevilla from Marseille in the summer window and has performed well in a side that tends to struggle to produce goals. As the data suggests, he's simply not producing enough to warrant a move to Madrid at this time. They'd be better off investing in other areas in the squad and trusting the current options, plus youth like Rodrygo and Brahim, than wasting money on the Argentine.

Jadon Sancho: the best option after Mbappe. He’s more of a traditional winger, while Mbappe falls under the wide forward/striker category. According to xG stats, Sancho is over-performing this season with 14 goals and 15 assists (xG 8.22, xA 8.67). This was also the case last year, Sancho’s breakout season, though this year the difference is higher in a smaller sample size. The stats included in the graphics indicated what's clear to the eye; Sancho creates more goals, yet he's behind by a fair distance for goal scoring. The data doesn't show the difference in quality of opponents, style of play, and whether shooting more would greatly boost Sancho's goal numbers. By outperforming the xG, Sancho is in effect slotting away tough chances. This could be a case of below average goalkeeping, or the player himself finding the corners. Mbappe, on the other hand, could be scoring tap-ins against defenses and keepers that struggle to properly position themselves, thus allowing him easy chances on a regular basis. Finally, it’s unclear with the current situation how much Sancho would cost, whenever the transfer window opens, but it would certainly be less the Mbappe, and Dortmund may find themselves ready to cash in.

Other options not included in the data:

Chiesa/Ferran/Neres: these three players fall into a similar bracket as Rodrygo, in that they haven’t yet shown the end product needed for this role. Ferran would actually be my pick to replace Sancho at Dortmund if he were to go to Madrid or back to England. The Valencia winger has been in the midst of a contract dispute. Apparently, he was going to sign, but the board wouldn’t give into his demands. Recently, the club came around and gave in, but the youngster (or his agent) changed his mind about staying. I’m personally not a fan of Chiesa, but he’s got ability. Mainly dribbling. End product needs work and I don’t like how easily he goes to ground. He’s also a bit selfish, though that could be a result of playing in a young/underachieving Fiorentina team. Neres shows flashes, though he’s still raw, and plays in the "weakest" league included here. Could use a full season or two starting for Ajax before moving on to a "stepping stone" club, and then joining a "super club".

Adama/Chukwueze/Under: another set of players who’ve got “potential” to make it at this level, but are wildly inconsistent. They’d likely be available for a fraction of what Sancho would cost. Chukwueze is already in Spain, so that’s a plus for him. However, like Chiesa, he’s playing at an inconsistent level in a mid-table team. The same can be said for Under, frankly, but he’s in a Europa league squad. Adama is a bit older, having come through Barcelona’s academy. He’s an anomaly. Physically superior to most footballers, yet able to dribble like a diminutive player. End product may always be an issue for him, though he’s shown undeniable improvement in this facet over the past two seasons.

In conclusion: I compared the current options at Madrid, arguably the best player to play for the club, two young stars, one realistic option currently in the league, a former player with amazing statistics, and a few top players in the same position. I also included some young players who could be viewed as "projects", though Florentino Perez has stock-piled enough phenoms in recent years. Vazquez and Bale are not good enough, as the stats and the eye test show, and Ocampos is not enough of an upgrade to seriously tempt Madrid to buy him from Sevilla. Salah and Sterling are unrealistic, seeing as they’re at the two top clubs in England. Sancho is at a club notorious for selling its stars, while PSG has its own shortcomings (mainly the lack of quality in its domestic league and an absence of European glory). Di Maria, former Madrid player and current teammate of Mbappe, has amazing stats, as shown in the data. This shows the dominance PSG are achieving in Ligue 1, and it may also be an indication of the level of the league. Sancho is slightly younger and plays in a more balanced league. Mbappe is like his idol, Cristiano, but the mature version of him (Madrid years). Sancho is more like the Sporting/United version of Cristiano, in that his end product will need to improve to consistently score against the top clubs and reach that “world class” level, but he’s the superior creator of the two. The signing of Eden Hazard, plus young Brazilian wonderkids Rodrygo and Vinicius, should cover the creativity department, so goal scoring is the main deficiency in the squad. Sancho is the obvious pick if Mbappe is unattainable, and he may reach Cristiano numbers in goal scoring. Right now, though, the French superstar remains the perfect player for Madrid.