Bats bounce back, beating Elche

Some off the cuff alliteration in the title, there. Anyway, just going to do my quick recap of what happened in the week of Valencia.

I don't want to go into too much depth with the loss in the cup at Sevilla, mostly because the team was super rotated. The game was figuratively over by the 40 minute mark, with a Luuk de Jong double and a nice chip from Rakitic sealing the victory for Sevilla. If I recall correctly, having watched the first half later on the night that happened, both de Jong goals were from crosses, assisted by Acuna and Suso. It's bad defending, as well as decent finishing by the Dutch forward. That's to be expected given Valencia will more than likely finish lower mid table, while Sevilla will likely finish top 4 once again. The Rakitic chip was a combo of bad goalkeeping, lax defending, and innovation from the Croatian. That's about it from that game. Sobrino started, leading the line, and he's since been loaned to Cadiz.

Speaking of loans, before my thoughts on the Elche win I want to discuss the incomings, Cutrone and Ferro. I've explained before that I don't have a legal way to watch the Portuguese league, and Benfica haven't really done anything in Europe of late, so I've not seen much of Ferro. At one point he was starting with Ruben Dias (now leading Man City's defense), but this season he's been benched and now loaned with Otamendi and Vertonghen the main pairing at the back. Yeah, so I can't say too much about him, stylistically and all that. Cutrone, on the other hand, I can give more insight into. Personally, I think he's a case of homegrown bias and a few half decent performances in a crap team. Milan brought him through, and like most fans of teams in bad situations at the time, Milanisti wanted a reason to smile, so they overhyped him. What he's always been about is work rate and determination. He's not a great finisher, can't create for himself, is average at best in the air, and certainly isn't going to run in behind like Vardy or someone like that. Fiorentina and Wolves have both been bad fits, given the lack of impetus going forward. Just think about it. A player that isn't fast, doesn't win headers, and doesn't create for himself; how is he going to score when his team sits back and defends all game? So, how do I see it going at Valencia? Well, it's certainly not a stylish team, and Gracia is not a manager that's known for his fun, attacking football. At the same time, it's not Iachini or Nuno, who play dire football and only certain types of strikers will score in those sides. Sobrino was the "backup" to Maxi, I suppose, and Cutrone should be a better option, to put it simply. It might also help that contrary to narratives out there, Spanish football is "slower" and "more defensive" than Italian at this point, so determination could be more important than physical prowess. We'll see.

Now, onto the latest victory. I'm mostly going off my notes, having recorded the game and looking at the important moments. I can start a couple different ways, but I guess I'll go with the xG comment. Looking at the numbers, you'd think Valencia (3) absolutely wrecked Elche (.3). The reality is half of that xG literally came from two Soler chances, both of which he missed, hence the 1-0 finishing scoreline. What I'll also say, not to support or contradict anything I've mentioned thus far, is Elche are 19th and by the numbers should be 20th by a long shot. They are by far the worst team in the league, the West Brom of Spain this season, for those of the English persuasion. So yeah, when you see the stats from the game, it somewhat tells the story but also doesn't, which I'll get to right now.

From the start, Valencia were dominating. Elche were in a 5-4-1, so the intent to defend and attempt to walk away with a 0-0 was obvious from the start. I've given my thoughts on that mentality, so I won't get into it again. The first notable attempt was Wass at 11 minutes; he was played over the top, in the left half space, by either Gaya or Guedes, and was 1v1 with the keeper for the ball, who for some reason decided to rush out. Wass won, the keeper was stranded, but the shot was sent away by the chest of one of two CB's that had sprinted to cover the open net. 10 minutes or so later, Wass wouldn't be denied, as he scored a header from a Guedes cross. To me, it was once again pretty basic, and Mojica completely lost the Dane as he met the ball with his noggin. Another chance to mention was for Elche, one of their only notable moments of the game, which was a nice cut from #11 that left Gabriel on the floor, though his shot went well over. One or two minutes later, Soler had his first major chance, this one a penalty as Vallejo was brought down at the back post trying to get to a cross. Soler then put the ball to the keeper's right, not in the corner or low, and it was saved. That's it for the first half.

Coming out from the break, Soler had another chance, this one coming from a beautiful solo run that had him picking up the ball in the middle of the pitch, maybe 35 yards from goal, ended up in the box with a shot that was blocked by Mojica. The period around the hour mark was the last interesting part of the match, with a trio of Elche chances, the main one being a blocked effort from a man cutting in from the left half space. Honestly, the .33 xG accurately assessed the threat from them, which is to say they didn't "deserve" to score, or even come close. Once again, that led to Valencia taking charge at the other end, culminating in a "big chance" for Soler. Now, this is where the flawed xG thing comes in. If you look at the context, and not the number on a sheet, you'll see that the .67 or whatever chance was actually a difficult one. Guedes goes to cross, it deflects twice off Elche players, and Soler, who is in the 6 yard box, literally leaves his leg in the air and it hits the ball as it's coming at him. Technically, it's a chance, and the location means it'll be calculated as a "big chance", but the intent is never there. Like yeah, he's 2 yards out, but the ball takes a wicked deflection and he knows nothing about it. Defenders and keepers don't get stick for not dealing with massive deflections, but for some reason situations like this are just chalked up and people act like the striker sucks or whatever. The penalty, yes, he should absolutely be burying that, but this one, nope, not having it.

Takeaways: Honestly, not too much. Valencia needed to win this game, and that's what they did. Statistically, they "should" be a bit closer to relegation, rather than looking up at 10th or whatever, but that's more a result of teams below them not scoring enough goals. They played alright. Elche were limited to almost nothing. That's about it.