1/3 through the season disappointments
- kcottrell2012
- Dec 21, 2020
- 4 min read
Glass half full/empty kinda thing, I'll be discussing some teams in the leagues I watch that have been refreshingly good, as well as the other side of the coin. I'll do three today, maybe include some more later on, depending on how it goes, and then do the positives in another article.
Torino: I've discussed Fiorentina before, so maybe I'll just go with Torino here. Both are in pitiful situations, predictably, as well Genoa. My take is most of it's down to coaching, as well as recruitment and poor management through the years. Long story short, they're conceding nearly three goals per game. The underlying stats aren't great, either. They're on 7 points, 4 off "safety", and have an expected 11 points. That said, they're scoring more than expected, due to Belotti being a beast, but they're conceding more than expected as well, because Giampaolo can't coach a defense. To illustrate the level of current dysfunction, Giampaolo is a 4-3-1-2 guy, and even he's resorted to the 5 at the back system because they're that inept defensively. It won't happen, but I'd like to see the poorly run clubs all relegated (Fiorentina, Genoa, Torino) this season. The league is worse off having incompetence not punished by relegation, because nothing changes. I just hope Belotti gets out of there because he's a good player and should be playing for trophies.
Hertha: I could talk about Schalke, but that train is so derailed it's just gonna hit rock bottom soon (in the 2. Bundesliga). Hertha, on the other hand, is a basket case club. I haven't watched enough of them to consider myself an expert, but from what I've seen, they're the typical counter-attacking side that can't break teams down. You see it all the time in England and Germany. There's no creativity in the midfield and there's no width. The defenders can't defend when they push up, which is why they look somewhat decent against sides that pin them back. A bit like Arsenal. They can be defensively solid, but it comes at the expense of their attack. Labbadia did the same thing at Wolfsburg, IIRC. The funny thing is they have better players than Union, who are in only their second Bundesliga season ever, yet the red side of Berlin is the one having success. What I'll also say is there's a gulf between the "best of the rest" and the relegation battle, at least right now, specifically with performances and goal difference. Mainz and Schalke are horrible, with one win in 26 between them. After that there's Bielefeld, a club that wasn't even that good in the second division, and Cologne, a side that is quite young and has a number of below average Bundesliga players. Right above that is Hertha, but they're 5 points off 7th. They (Hertha) play Schalke, Bielefeld, Cologne and Bremen as four of their next five, so that could see them sucked in for the rest of the season or comfortable (maybe a Europe push?).
Arsenal/Brighton: same GD, two points separating them. One seen as tinpot, the other one of the historical English clubs. The table's started to look more like it should, at this point. I expect at least one of Everton and Leicester to drop off, with one of them replacing Arsenal in the "top six". Southampton and Villa are limited sides with nowhere near the talent of the top clubs, so top half would be a resounding success for both. I have reasons for both Arsenal and Brighton being here. Arsenal because they're dreadful in the footballing sense, the fans are deluded, and they should be far above where they are. For Brighton, they play "pretty" football, but it's completely ineffective. Part of it's the personnel, obviously, but to say they're significantly worse than the Saints, Villa, Newcastle, West Ham, Palace... that would be a lie. Burnley will soon pass them, I have no doubt (two games in hand ATM). Every team currently with a negative GD has serious issues, with Potter's men unable to score or stop goals from going in. It's like, at some point you can't blame the strikers but so much. You change the system or become defensively resolute. If they don't buy a striker and IMO a left back, they'll be right there in the relegation scrap. The underlying stats are particularly disturbing, but as usual we'll take them with a grain of salt. As I said, if at either end of the pitch you have liabilities (below average finishers, below average keeper), you'll obviously perform below statistical expectations. Wolves, for example, "should" be 8 points behind Brighton, yet in reality they're 8 point ahead. That's a stylistic issue. Better goalkeeper, better striker, give up fewer high quality chances, therefore more points and higher league position. Hughton's football was the worst in the league, as I've described before, but they did stay up, wnich at that point was the goal. Once you start playing "better football", the results have to be there or it's pointless. You don't get "unlucky" every week, your players are shit and the system leaves them out to dry. A bit like Bielsa at Leeds. At times, it works, mainly when they play teams that sit back and are equal in terms of talent. But when they face superior sides, they get ripped to shreds because the midfield is absent and their defenders are average... Last thing on Arsenal is what the hell is Arteta doing? He's acting like a "philosophy" manager, but what's the philosophy? You have to adapt, not just bitch about being unlucky and "dominating teams", whatever that means.
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